t***s
发帖数: 163 | |
t***s
发帖数: 163 | |
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 3 如果你确认将来会发生什么事，等看到再动作是不是会有点晚？
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: 短期内还是看不到通胀啊
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f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | |
k**o
发帖数: 15334 | 5 这次经济崩盘，20T+的钱没了，fed印的这点钱才到哪儿啊，怎么通脹啊。日本当年泡沫经济崩溃之后，印了20年的钞票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: 短期内还是看不到通胀啊
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 6 St Louis FED M1: The plunging ratio suggests that little of this base money
is
actually making its way into M1.
St Louis FED Reserve Bank Credit: Base money is sitting in bank reserves. In
other words, banks are not lending.
Debt level: The debt chain is in deflation. On the other side of debt, there
's
the credit. Without credits, where is the inflation?!
泡沫经济崩溃之后，印
了20年的钞票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 这次经济崩盘，20T+的钱没了，fed印的这点钱才到哪儿啊，怎么通脹啊。日本当年泡沫经济崩溃之后，印了20年的钞票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 7 Japan didn't start printing money until 10 years into recession. And
even when they do, FED now prints more in a few months than what
they print in a few years. Japan is a country of savers. It is politically
hard to print money. Here in US, inflation is really good for the
country of reckless borrowers.
泡沫经济崩溃之后，印了20年的钞
票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。
【在 k**o 的大作中提到】
: 这次经济崩盘，20T+的钱没了，fed印的这点钱才到哪儿啊，怎么通脹啊。日本当年泡沫经济崩溃之后，印了20年的钞票，也通缩了20年，到近几年才开始微微通脹。
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 8 The quantity theory of money holds that the money supply, multiplied
by the rate at which it circulates (called velocity), equals nominal income.
The FED tries to increase the velocity by pumping the money. But the
trouble is once the velocity starts to increase, they would have already
pumped more money than the system can handle.
The excellent parable is that when someone tries to push a really hard
to open door. By the time they succeed, they will not stop at the door,
instead they will fall
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: St Louis FED M1: The plunging ratio suggests that little of this base money
: is
: actually making its way into M1.
: St Louis FED Reserve Bank Credit: Base money is sitting in bank reserves. In
: other words, banks are not lending.
: Debt level: The debt chain is in deflation. On the other side of debt, there
: 's
: the credit. Without credits, where is the inflation?!
:
: 泡沫经济崩溃之后，印
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 This is a very dangerous mindset. The same mindset in 2006 allows the
bank to lend recklessly to the subprime borrowers because even if he
can not pay, he can always sell the house and pay the money back, right?
So while everyone just focuses on the very short-term consequence, no
one cares about the long term.
However, at least right now FED is not sleeping at the wheel as opposed
to in the Greenspan era. Ben Bernanke knows what he is doing. He just
thinks that inflation is the less of the two
【在 t***s 的大作中提到】
: 短期内还是看不到通胀啊
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b****e
发帖数: 460 | 10 I think a year or 2 years ago, as everyone else, Ben Bernanke severly
underestimated the other evil.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: This is a very dangerous mindset. The same mindset in 2006 allows the
: bank to lend recklessly to the subprime borrowers because even if he
: can not pay, he can always sell the house and pay the money back, right?
: So while everyone just focuses on the very short-term consequence, no
: one cares about the long term.
: However, at least right now FED is not sleeping at the wheel as opposed
: to in the Greenspan era. Ben Bernanke knows what he is doing. He just
: thinks that inflation is the less of the two
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|
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 11 haha, I see.
Can BB succeed?
I w/ some bears: no way.
You guys: Yes. Let's plan for the result.
income.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: The quantity theory of money holds that the money supply, multiplied
: by the rate at which it circulates (called velocity), equals nominal income.
: The FED tries to increase the velocity by pumping the money. But the
: trouble is once the velocity starts to increase, they would have already
: pumped more money than the system can handle.
: The excellent parable is that when someone tries to push a really hard
: to open door. By the time they succeed, they will not stop at the door,
: instead they will fall
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 12 But what stops him from keep trying UNTIL he succeeds?
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: haha, I see.
: Can BB succeed?
: I w/ some bears: no way.
: You guys: Yes. Let's plan for the result.
:
: income.
|
g****g
发帖数: 310 | 13 St Louis FED M1: The plunging ratio suggests that little of this base money
is actually making its way into M1. |
t***s
发帖数: 163 | 14 我也不觉得BB能成功，或者说最终结果很ugly根本算不上成功
我也就是说句：短期看不到通胀
长期通胀肯定跑不了啊
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: haha, I see.
: Can BB succeed?
: I w/ some bears: no way.
: You guys: Yes. Let's plan for the result.
:
: income.
|
S******n
发帖数: 617 | 15 Do I believe St Louis FED or your pic? No offense....
money
【在 g****g 的大作中提到】
: St Louis FED M1: The plunging ratio suggests that little of this base money
: is actually making its way into M1.
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d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 16 你们两个的数据都对。没什么矛盾的。M0大幅度增加。乘数低了不少。但M1的确也有一
些增加。多出来的M0总有一些会成为M1。
【在 S******n 的大作中提到】
: Do I believe St Louis FED or your pic? No offense....
:
: money
|
