H**7
发帖数: 8624 | 1 钢目推荐了这个[bssd]的暗号， 中文状态敲进去得到的是“比赛所得” --- 呵呵，
不期望多少“比赛所得”， 只要别再被搬到头版去示众就阿弥陀佛了。
十一月中发现几个问题， 一个是过低的止损率与市场波动幅度的矛盾， 一个是普通投
资载具在时间上受到的种种限制与市场波动速度的矛盾， 还有一个是这种大庭广众之
下翔实讨论投资问题的适宜性， 于是决定转移。
转移前通过站内交了底， 顺便拿来做个年终总结（保留一天， 还是因为这个适宜性问题）：
1）金银从 1360/25 开始就进入高位震荡阶段， 完全不适合过低止损率的操作， 特别
是过低止损率的短线操作；
2）金银明年三月很可能回到 1360/25 价位， 那时再进风险降低很多；
上面这两条现在看来还是靠谱的。
3）天然气长期（一两年以后）看好，中期（半年以内）不看好， 对短期情况的估计是
---
11月， 4.3-4.4 间振荡；
12月， 开始受天气预报影响在振荡中走高， 每周四的储存量报告成为市场价格定心丸
， 月底到 5.0 左右；
1月， 严寒天气开始持续削弱储存量， 每周四的储存量报告逐渐成为定时炸弹， 波峰
值可望冲破 7.0.
由于中期形势供过于求， 短期价位上冲主要是由于需求量短期内急剧增加和传输管线
的限制之间的矛盾造成的， 一旦天气缓解， 价位马上下调， 所以计划感恩节前圣诞
节前各加仓一次， 大寒前逢高撤出。
上面这个估计和计划现在评估略为过早， 毕竟一月份还没有到， 但是主要问题必须要
讲清：原先估计的天然气价格振荡形成的低谷从12月开始到1月逐渐走高， 现在来看很
可能波谷就在 3.85-4.15 之间平移， 波峰受短期天气影响， 最高峰的期望值应该在
5.0 - 7.0 之间。
天然气价格 5.0 对应 GAZ 价格大约在 9.0-9.6 附近, 建议见 9 就收吧。
其实一旦认清了影响目前天然气市场的几个基本因素 --- 快速增长的产量， 缓慢增
长的传输管线及出口， 经济对需求的中长期影响， 天气对需求的短期影响， 可以制定具有针对性的动态策略 --- SWING TRADE. 但是这是一个体力活， 并且一二月份以后振荡波谷可能下滑到 3.6 以下， 所以每次动作必须要快。 不建议普通投资载具参与。
中期天气预报还是准确的， 看着欧洲亚洲那一轮接一轮的暴风雪， 脑子里很不厚道地
想起了“羡慕嫉妒恨”几个字 --- 其实上个月 Lower 48 states 已经比历史气温要低
了， 看看一月份会怎么样吧。
顺便提两句， PAL 被评为今年表现最好的实物 ETF --- 纲目， 俺的腊肉呢？！ GAZ
和 UNG 双双列入末等生 --- 亲家表砍我， 希望这俩难兄难弟新年一开始就能小翻一
个身！
| n********n
发帖数: 2248 | 2 呵呵，看看这篇评论，天然气还是很有希望嘛
Today I’m going to discuss three main reasons why natural gas prices (in
the United States) haven’t participated in the commodity boom of 2010.
The first reason is that natural gas prices are loosely tied to oil prices.
Yes, oil prices rose over the past year, but only by about 10%. In order for
oil prices to significantly buoy natural gas prices, we’ll need to see
another huge ramp up like we did in the summer of 2008. Those higher oil
prices (above the $100 mark – as an estimate) bolster demand for natural
gas.
Why? Well, natural gas is an input in some oil production. Natural gas is
pumped into oil wells in order to sustain pressure to bring oil out of the
ground. It’s used to power machinery and produce oil in non-conventional
oil production.
The more expensive oil gets, the more likely conventional and non-
conventional producers are to boost production – which increases demand for
natural gas.
Additionally, as oil becomes more expensive, energy consumers in industries
that have the capability to switch between crude oil and natural gas will
switch to natural gas. Again, that bolsters natural gas demand.
You might be thinking “isn’t crude oil much more energy intensive than
natural gas? What’s the break-even point from a cost perspective?”
It’s pretty easy to figure out. Natural gas sells in blocks of one million
British Thermal Units (mmbtu). Right now, it’s selling for about $4 per
mmbtu. A barrel of oil costs about $88 and contains 5.8 mmbtu.
So, $4 currently buys one million btus worth of natural gas, but only 260,
000 btus worth of oil. It’s easy to see why consumers would be willing to
switch from crude oil to natural gas with even a marginal increase in the
price of oil. There are other reasons why.
The second reason that natural gas hasn’t kept up with the gains in other
commodity prices is that a variety of new production techniques have flooded
the market with unprecedented amounts of supply. Horizontal drilling
techniques, high-pressure fraccing and even massive discoveries in North
Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming, Pennsylvania, New York, Texas, Oklahoma and
Louisiana (to name a few) mean that there’s no shortage of natural gas
coming to market.
According to the US Energy Information Administration (a part of the Dept.
of Energy) the United States currently has just about as much natural gas in
underground storage as it’s ever had:
From the above chart you can see that underground natural gas supply acts in
a very pronounced seasonable trend. Supply builds all spring, summer and
autumn, and then gets drawn down by winter consumption as a heating fuel.
I think you can probably see where I’m going with this information, but I
have one more big reason why natural gas has so far lagged the broader run-
up in commodity prices.
So far, natural gas suffers from what I call the “telegraph” problem. It’
s the same problem that telegraph companies had in the 1800s: the wondrous
new telegraph technology that allowed people to communicate quickly over
long distances was stymied by the Atlantic Ocean. That is, until 1866 when
they were able to sink a cable from the United States to Newfoundland to
Great Britain.
Today, there are no natural gas pipelines connecting natural gas thirsty
Europe and Asia to the massive natural gas resources in the United States
and Canada.
The only way to get American natural gas to consumers in Europe and Asia is
to turn it into liquefied natural gas (LNG) and to transport it in tankers.
The problem right now is a shortage of facilities that can turn natural gas
into LNG, and moreover there are also shortages of receiving facilities in
Asia and Europe to actually get the LNG off of ships and make it available
to consumers.
By my last count, there are only a dozen or so LNG terminals serving all of
Asia, and only a handful serving Europe.
So what’s my point?
The point is that all three of these factors (oil prices, supply and LNG
terminals) are in different stages of reversing course. Oil prices are
certainly headed higher in the not-so-distant future.
Supply is already starting to dwindle.
And LNG terminals around the world are under construction which should
severely undermine the telegraph problem.
I expect natural gas prices to double in the coming 18 months. Today, you
can still buy many natural gas companies at very attractive valuations.
ETF Daily News Notes Some Related Natural Gas ETFs: United States Natural
Gas Fund (NYSE:UNG), United States 12 Month Natural Gas (NYSE:UNL), iPath DJ
-UBS Natural Gas TR Sub-Idx ETN (NYSE:GAZ), First Trust ISE-Revere Natural
Gas Idx (NYSE:FCG), iShares Dow Jones US Oil Equipment Index (NYSE:IEZ),
Jefferies | TR/J CRB Wildcatters Exploration & Production Equity ETF (NYSE:
WCAT).
I’m researching this natural gas story nearly every day, so if you have any
favorite ways to play the natural gas trend, please send them my way at
e*******[email protected]. I will be discussing my preferred methods
for investing in natural gas in an upcoming issue of the Resource Prospector.
Written By Kevin McElroy From Wyatt Research Disclosure: no positions
Kevin McElroy is a top rated commodity researcher and analyst specialist at
Wyatt Investment Research, with a targeted focus on short and long term
investment opportunities. He has worked in the investment publishing field
for over three years alongside some of the world’s leading commodity
traders and analysts. He takes the complex futures and options trading
strategies from the floors of the Nymex and the CBOT, uniquely combines them
with economic trends and positions his recommendations in a way that any
investor, from a straight long-term buy and hold investor to a sophisticated
day trader can easily understand, implement, and profit. | P**********n
发帖数: 1948 | 3 只贴一天？ 警长快来拍照。。。
问题）：
【在 H**7 的大作中提到】
: 钢目推荐了这个[bssd]的暗号， 中文状态敲进去得到的是“比赛所得” --- 呵呵，
: 不期望多少“比赛所得”， 只要别再被搬到头版去示众就阿弥陀佛了。
: 十一月中发现几个问题， 一个是过低的止损率与市场波动幅度的矛盾， 一个是普通投
: 资载具在时间上受到的种种限制与市场波动速度的矛盾， 还有一个是这种大庭广众之
: 下翔实讨论投资问题的适宜性， 于是决定转移。
: 转移前通过站内交了底， 顺便拿来做个年终总结（保留一天， 还是因为这个适宜性问题）：
: 1）金银从 1360/25 开始就进入高位震荡阶段， 完全不适合过低止损率的操作， 特别
: 是过低止损率的短线操作；
: 2）金银明年三月很可能回到 1360/25 价位， 那时再进风险降低很多；
: 上面这两条现在看来还是靠谱的。
| P**********n
发帖数: 1948 | 4 外行来瞎评一把：这人说得没错，天然气产量大，又运不出去，所以价上不去。至于18
个月后翻一倍， 那都2012乐，地球都可能没了。。。。
for
【在 n********n 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，看看这篇评论，天然气还是很有希望嘛
: Today I’m going to discuss three main reasons why natural gas prices (in
: the United States) haven’t participated in the commodity boom of 2010.
: The first reason is that natural gas prices are loosely tied to oil prices.
: Yes, oil prices rose over the past year, but only by about 10%. In order for
: oil prices to significantly buoy natural gas prices, we’ll need to see
: another huge ramp up like we did in the summer of 2008. Those higher oil
: prices (above the $100 mark – as an estimate) bolster demand for natural
: gas.
: Why? Well, natural gas is an input in some oil production. Natural gas is
| s******e
发帖数: 16668 | 5 这两天连中三次RAFFLE PRIZE。呵呵。
明天去买腊肉。（黄世仁啊） | H**7
发帖数: 8624 | 6 冇看见还有人在霍霍地磨菜刀吗？
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: 这两天连中三次RAFFLE PRIZE。呵呵。
: 明天去买腊肉。（黄世仁啊）
| J*******k
发帖数: 3298 | 7 买彩票连中？
【在 s******e 的大作中提到】
: 这两天连中三次RAFFLE PRIZE。呵呵。
: 明天去买腊肉。（黄世仁啊）
| H**7
发帖数: 8624 | 8 一定要过去打秋风！
【在 J*******k 的大作中提到】
: 买彩票连中？
|
|
|
