h***i
发帖数: 89031 | 1 结果经过元朝的90年残暴统治，两边又一边多了
你说说南蛮造谣怎么都不长脑子 |
b**g
发帖数: 949 | 2 assume 20 years per generation, 90 years means 4.5 generations. 4 kids per couple implies 2^(4.5) = 22. if 18 years per generation, 90 years means 5 generations, which implied 32 times as much population.
or, from another perspective, assume 4% annual growth rate, which implies 1.04 ^ 90 = 34.
if also assume the population in the south has reached the equilibrium (thus
constant). 20 to 30 times difference is certain a magnitude.
so this is not too rediculous.
【在 h***i 的大作中提到】
: 结果经过元朝的90年残暴统治，两边又一边多了
: 你说说南蛮造谣怎么都不长脑子
|
h***i
发帖数: 89031 | 3 扯
蒙古人的统治下，儿童存活率达到现代水平
果然很残暴的统治阿
implies
thus
【在 b**g 的大作中提到】
: assume 20 years per generation, 90 years means 4.5 generations. 4 kids per couple implies 2^(4.5) = 22. if 18 years per generation, 90 years means 5 generations, which implied 32 times as much population.
: or, from another perspective, assume 4% annual growth rate, which implies 1.04 ^ 90 = 34.
: if also assume the population in the south has reached the equilibrium (thus
: constant). 20 to 30 times difference is certain a magnitude.
: so this is not too rediculous.
|
b**g
发帖数: 949 | 4 if someone said 蒙古人的统治残暴, go find this guy and discuss with him NOT
me.
in ancient times, even in very recent past, it is very usual to give birth
to a lot of kids. the birth rate way higher than the actual growth rate.
the population growth rate after war is usually much higher than the normal
time.
【在 h***i 的大作中提到】
: 扯
: 蒙古人的统治下，儿童存活率达到现代水平
: 果然很残暴的统治阿
:
: implies
: thus
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 5
couple implies 2^(4.5) = 22. if 18 years per generation, 90 years means 5
generations, which implied 32 times as much population.
1.04 ^ 90 = 34.
OK
thus
This assumption has a huge question mark. I would say it's invalid without
evidence.
【在 b**g 的大作中提到】
: assume 20 years per generation, 90 years means 4.5 generations. 4 kids per couple implies 2^(4.5) = 22. if 18 years per generation, 90 years means 5 generations, which implied 32 times as much population.
: or, from another perspective, assume 4% annual growth rate, which implies 1.04 ^ 90 = 34.
: if also assume the population in the south has reached the equilibrium (thus
: constant). 20 to 30 times difference is certain a magnitude.
: so this is not too rediculous.
|
b**g
发帖数: 949 | 6 forgot to ask this first: who when said "经过90年，两边又一边多了"? or you
just created this from air?
【在 h***i 的大作中提到】
: 结果经过元朝的90年残暴统治，两边又一边多了
: 你说说南蛮造谣怎么都不长脑子
|
b**g
发帖数: 949 | 7 i know. my purpose was to show what could happen in just 90 years.
and i have no intention to prove anything ... since the original statement
of LZ was not proved valid at the first place.
【在 k***n 的大作中提到】
:
: couple implies 2^(4.5) = 22. if 18 years per generation, 90 years means 5
: generations, which implied 32 times as much population.
: 1.04 ^ 90 = 34.
: OK
: thus
: This assumption has a huge question mark. I would say it's invalid without
: evidence.
|
s*****d
发帖数: 66 | 8 if also assume the population in the south has reached the equilibrium (thus
constant). 20 to 30 times difference is certain a magnitude. |
b**g
发帖数: 949 | 9 楼主所声称在元后期南北人口相同，这一点没有提供依据。所以谈论北方人口如何最后和南方相同缺乏可信的前提。我讨论的重点是北方是否可以实现人口呈一个数量级的增长。我的计算表明如果北方人口在元初只剩下原来的百分之三到五（即损失95%到97%），那么通过九十年就可以恢复原来的数量。当然这些假设没有多么严谨，只是个大概的估量，但是也可以说明问题。比如人口增长达到每一代翻一翻不太可能。但同时，人口的减少的估计也没有那么多。
thus
last
【在 s*****d 的大作中提到】
: if also assume the population in the south has reached the equilibrium (thus
: constant). 20 to 30 times difference is certain a magnitude.
|
