m********e
发帖数: 5088 | |
A*****a
发帖数: 52743 | 2 怎么算出来的
【在 m********e 的大作中提到】
: 扣子只有大概3300分之一的可能性翻身啦
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 3 扣子需要10场其他比赛的结果来确保能进playoff:
1. The Broncos beat the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 16: A
Cincinnati win clinches the AFC South for the Texans and renders the rest of
this post moot.
2. The Colts beat the Titans in Week 17: As you might expect, Indianapolis (
7-8) needs to win out in order to make the postseason. A loss means they're
7-9 and can't catch Houston (8-7).
3. The Texans lose to the Jaguars in Week 17: Also as expected -- if the
Texans win and move to 9-7, the Colts cannot catch them in the AFC South.
Reminder: the Jaguars have one win in their last five games despite not
playing a single team above .500. Pretty big hurdle for Indy.
4. The Bills beat the Jets in Week 17: Strength of victory item. SportsLine
projects a 22-19 win for the Bills; Rex Ryan beating his old team wouldn't
be surprising.
5. The Dolphins beat the Patriots in Week 17: Strength of victory item.
SportsLine projects a 26-19 Patriots victory in Miami. The Pats can secure
the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win, making this a major stumbling block.
6. The Ravens beat the Bengals in Week 17: Strength of victory item.
SportsLine projects a Bengals blowout win. Just win another divisional
rivalry game, Ryan Mallett. NBD.
7. The Falcons beat the Saints in Week 17: Strength of victory item. An
absolutely reasonable situation, although neither team has anything to play
for. SportsLine projects a Falcons victory.
8. The Raiders beat the Chiefs in Week 17: Strength of victory item. The
Chiefs are battling for the AFC West title and if the Broncos win Monday,
they'll be extra motivated to win this game (and hope Denver loses to San
Diego). SportsLine likes the Chiefs to win.
9. The Broncos beat the Chargers in Week 17: Strength of victory item. So
Denver has to win out basically. Not impossible relative to the other stuff
on this super-greedy wish list. SportsLine sees this as a likely win for
Denver.
10. The Steelers beat the Browns in Week 17: Strength of victory item.
Finally! Something realistic. The Steelers could never go on the road and
lose to an AFC North opponent struggling to make it through the season with
more than four victories ... oh wait. Pittsburgh should win (SportsLine
projects them to) ... but you never know.
【在 A*****a 的大作中提到】
: 怎么算出来的
|
b******d
发帖数: 9694 | 4 尼玛蛋疼的真多
of
(
re
【在 m********e 的大作中提到】
: 扣子需要10场其他比赛的结果来确保能进playoff:
: 1. The Broncos beat the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 16: A
: Cincinnati win clinches the AFC South for the Texans and renders the rest of
: this post moot.
: 2. The Colts beat the Titans in Week 17: As you might expect, Indianapolis (
: 7-8) needs to win out in order to make the postseason. A loss means they're
: 7-9 and can't catch Houston (8-7).
: 3. The Texans lose to the Jaguars in Week 17: Also as expected -- if the
: Texans win and move to 9-7, the Colts cannot catch them in the AFC South.
: Reminder: the Jaguars have one win in their last five games despite not
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t******g
发帖数: 10390 | 5 FPI Chance to Occur
Games With AFC South Implications
Broncos def. Bengals 47.1%
Colts def. Titans 77.6%
Steelers def. Browns 76.5%
Broncos def. Chargers 68.2%
Falcons def. Saints 64.6%
Bills def. Jets 52.1%
Jaguars def. Texans 34.4%
Dolphins def. Patriots 28.0%
Ravens def. Bengals 24.2%
Raiders def. Chiefs 20.1%
* 0.03% chance of all 10 happening
【在 A*****a 的大作中提到】
: 怎么算出来的
|
T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 6 这不是大半个身子进去，是只有一丁点背影还在外边，可以Call德州进入季后了。现在
就发包子吧。。。
【在 m********e 的大作中提到】
: 扣子只有大概3300分之一的可能性翻身啦
|
t******g
发帖数: 10390 | 7 几个小概率的比赛还是可能发生的.
关键还是jaguars干掉texans.
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: FPI Chance to Occur
: Games With AFC South Implications
: Broncos def. Bengals 47.1%
: Colts def. Titans 77.6%
: Steelers def. Browns 76.5%
: Broncos def. Chargers 68.2%
: Falcons def. Saints 64.6%
: Bills def. Jets 52.1%
: Jaguars def. Texans 34.4%
: Dolphins def. Patriots 28.0%
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m********e
发帖数: 5088 | 8 为了避免那0.03%的概率，我还是不看比赛为好。
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: 几个小概率的比赛还是可能发生的.
: 关键还是jaguars干掉texans.
|
T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 9 这概率太小了，这得翻多大的天。
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: 几个小概率的比赛还是可能发生的.
: 关键还是jaguars干掉texans.
|
T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 10 这肯定的编个程序了，人脑算不了这么清楚。
【在 A*****a 的大作中提到】
: 怎么算出来的
|
|
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G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 11 这十件事都不难LOL
of
(
re
【在 m********e 的大作中提到】
: 扣子需要10场其他比赛的结果来确保能进playoff:
: 1. The Broncos beat the Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 16: A
: Cincinnati win clinches the AFC South for the Texans and renders the rest of
: this post moot.
: 2. The Colts beat the Titans in Week 17: As you might expect, Indianapolis (
: 7-8) needs to win out in order to make the postseason. A loss means they're
: 7-9 and can't catch Houston (8-7).
: 3. The Texans lose to the Jaguars in Week 17: Also as expected -- if the
: Texans win and move to 9-7, the Colts cannot catch them in the AFC South.
: Reminder: the Jaguars have one win in their last five games despite not
|
b**l
发帖数: 33123 | 12 确实没有窦娥冤
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: 这十件事都不难LOL
:
: of
: (
: re
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 13 你还可以选看7场，17th week有16场比赛(no bye)。
【在 m********e 的大作中提到】
: 为了避免那0.03%的概率，我还是不看比赛为好。
|
M*********u
发帖数: 818 | 14 [在 molebleeze (molebleeze) 的大作中提到：]
：扣子只有大概3300分之一的可能性翻身啦
：
：...........
除了2-3 其他都不理解 有人能解释下吗，随便挑个解释下
比如1。关笨狗跟野马什么关系 |
b**l
发帖数: 33123 | 15 定义你的胜利权重，因为打了不同的对手。扣子胜野马，德佬胜笨狗，扣子要占先的话
，野马得赢。
【在 M*********u 的大作中提到】
: [在 molebleeze (molebleeze) 的大作中提到：]
: ：扣子只有大概3300分之一的可能性翻身啦
: ：
: ：...........
: 除了2-3 其他都不理解 有人能解释下吗，随便挑个解释下
: 比如1。关笨狗跟野马什么关系
|
t******g
发帖数: 10390 | 16 这个万分之三的概率下只有6场发生了.
小概率(<50%)的比赛中只有pats那场发生了.
最后colts的概率上升到了1.1%就到顶了.
【在 t******g 的大作中提到】
: FPI Chance to Occur
: Games With AFC South Implications
: Broncos def. Bengals 47.1%
: Colts def. Titans 77.6%
: Steelers def. Browns 76.5%
: Broncos def. Chargers 68.2%
: Falcons def. Saints 64.6%
: Bills def. Jets 52.1%
: Jaguars def. Texans 34.4%
: Dolphins def. Patriots 28.0%
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