R*3
发帖数: 11814 | 1 Everyone,
Now that the Lions have proven they are still the lions losing a
heartbreaker 16-18 to the Ravens, I can now give the full NFC Playoff
Picture including clinches and elimination scenarios for week 16.
To start here is the current Playoff Picture:
#1 Seattle_x (NFCW), 12-2 (Div 3-1, Conf 9-1)
#2 New Orleans (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 4-0, Conf 8-2)
#3 Philly (NFCE), 8-6 (Div 3-2, Conf 7-3)
#4 Chicago (NFCN), 8-6 (Div 2-3, Conf 4-6)
#5 Carolina (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 3-1, Conf 7-3) [Head to Head vs San Fran]
#6 San Fran(NFCW), 10-4 (Div 4-1, Conf 7-3)
x: Seattle has clinched a playoff spot.
The following teams are still mathematically alive:
Arizona(NFCW), 9-5 (Div 1-3, Conf 5-5)
Green Bay (NFCN) 7-6-1 (Div 2-2-1, Conf 5-5-1)
Detroit (NFCN) 7-7 (Div 4-1, Conf 6-4)
Dallas (NFCE) 7-7 (Div 4-0, Conf 6-4)
Before getting into the specifics, I want to point out a couple of things to
make the picture clearer. Of all the teams still alive but on the outside
looking in, Arizona and only Arizona can qualify for a wildcard spot.
Greenbay, Detroit, and Dallas can not reach the 10 win threshhold needed,
and Chicago even it it gets 10 wins would lose all tiebreaks with other
potential wildcard teams.....and would win the NFCN crown regardless
rendering the wildcard moot.
That means there are three pools of teams. The first pool consists of
Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina, San Fran, and Arizona all fighting for four
playoff spots. Seattle is assured of one, and Arizona is on the verge of
being eliminated from the conversation.
Philly and Dallas are fighting it out for the NFCE crown and Philly has a
one game lead, but Dallas would win the tiebreak.
Finally Chicago has a one half game lead (over Green Bay) for the NFCN crown
and Chicago plays Green Bay on week 17. That means both Green Bay and
Chicago control their own destiny for the NFCN Crown and that wildcard spot.
Detroit is on the outside looking in at one game back, and has to hope that
both Chicago and Greenbay lose one.
Here are the specific team scenarios starting with the current #1 seed
Seattle:
Seattle's playoff picture is extremely simple. They are in the playoffs
already, and are assured of having the best record in the NFC (but might
lose a tiebreak to San Fran). That means that if Seattle does anything but
lose in it's final two games, it clinches the #1 seed. What's more Seattle
wins all tiebreaks *except* San Fran which means that if San Fran does
anything but win out, Seattle also gets the #1 Seed. Thus for week 15:
1. Win or tie (vs Arizona) and Seattle clinches the #1 seed.
2. San Fran ties or loses (vs Atlanta), Seattle clinches the #1 seed.
Seattle can only be the #1 or #5 seed. They are eliminated from all other
seeds and are assured a playoff berth.
The picture for San Fransisco is also actually fairly simple. They can not
be the #3 and #4 seeds since San Fran would have to tie Seattle to get the
NFCW Crown and that would take a minimum of 12 wins (and winning out).
However, San Fran can still be eliminated since they lose tiebreaks to both
New Orleans and Carolina, and can still finish third in the NFCW behind
Arizona. San Fran, however, wins all tiebreaks with Arizona because of
division record. This means that San Fran can't be eliminated from the
playoffs in week 16 (but can from the division race), but can clinch a
playoff spot. San Fran can not clinch the NFCW in week 16. This leads to the
following scenarios:
San Fransisco Clinches a Playoff spot if:
1. San Fran wins (vs Atlanta)
2. Seattle wins (vs Arizona) [This eliminates San Fran from the NFCW as well]
3. San Fran and Seattle both tie [This eliminates San Fran from the NFCW as
well]
San Fran is eliminated from the NFCW race with a loss or tie (see Seattle)
New Orleans also has a relatively simple playoff picture. At 10-4 and with
one win against Carolina, New Orleans has the inside track to the NFCS and
the #2 seed. We know that the Champion of the NFCS can not be the #3 or #4
seed because the minimum record needed to win the NFCS will be 10-5-1 which
is a half game better than any possible record from the NFCE and NFCN. Thus:
New Orleans will clinch the NFCS and a first round bye (#2 seed minimum)
with:
1. A win
New Orleans can still clinch a playoff spot with any of the following:
1. A Seattle win (or rather an Arizona loss). This is because New Orleans
owns the tiebreak vs Arizona
2. A San Fransisco Loss+Arizona Tie. This is because New Orleans owns the
tiebreak vs San Fran (head to head), and Arizona (conference).
3. Tie and Arizona Tie
4. Tie and San Fran loss or tie
New Orleans can not be eliminated from the playoffs in week 16. Elimination
would require losing out and for Arizona and Carolina winning out, and San
Fran winning at least one game. New Orleans can not get the #3 seed or the #
4 seed. All other playoff seeds are possible.
Because Carolina loses the conference tiebreak with New Orleans even if they
win in week 16 vs N.O., Carolina can not clinch the NFCS in week 16 unlike
N.O. However, like N.O., they too control their own destiny for the NFCS
Crown. Unlike New Orleans, Carolina lost to Arizona and that affects the
playoff scenarios as follows:
Carolina Clinches a Playoff Spot in week 16 with:
1. A win. This would put Carolina at 11 wins. Arizona could at best tie this
mark, and a three way tiebreak with New Orleans would be irrelevant since
one or the other would win the division. Also Arizona has to play San Fran
in week 17 which would prevent a scenario that forces a head to head
comparison (at worst it would be a three way tie, and Carolina would win the
initial three way tie).
2. Tie+Seattle Win. This would put Carolina out of reach of Arizona. [This
also locks Seattle out of the Wildcard picture]
3. Tie+San Fran Loss. This would put Carolina out of reach of San Fran and
also locks Seattle out of the Wildcard picture.
4. Seattle tie+San Fran Loss. This locks Seattle out of the wildcard. Since
Arizona and San Fran play each other, this last game will eliminate one of
them in this case leaving a spot for Carolina.
Arizona is an interesting case. Arizona can not clinch a playoff spot in
week 16 mainly because they are on the outside looking in, have been already
eliminated from the NFCW race (in week 13), and lose ALL the tiebreaks
because of a wretched conference record save vs head to head vs Carolina.
That means Arizona is on the razor edge of being eliminated. For Arizona to
make the playoffs, they have to force a tie vs Carolina for a wildcard spot
and win that tiebreak. Most scenarios that have Arizona making it, also have
San Fran making it, but that's not a requirement. The one thing that
Arizona must avoid is a THREE way tie for the two wildcard spots with both
Carolina and San Fran (which could easily happen). In such a case (either at
11-5 or 10-6), Carolina would get the first nod because of superior
conference record, and then San Fran would get the second because of
Division record. The head to head would not matter in this case.
That being so, Arizona can not clinch in week 16, but can be eliminated.
Here is the elimination Scenario for Arizona:
Arizona Loss + Carolina Win Personally I think both are likely.
Note that Arizona can qualify for the five seed but is eliminated from seeds
1-4.
The above scenarios will help determine four of the six playoff spots. The
following scenarios apply to the NFC East:
Philly: Philly's case is super easy. They win out, and they are in.
Furthermore the only other team that matters to them is Dallas who they can
not tie. Because Philly has a one game lead on Dallas, Philly can not be
eliminated but can clinch. The reverse applies to Dallas.
Philly clinches the NFCE if:
1. Philly win or tie + Dallas loss
2. Philly win + Dallas loss or tie
The Elimination scenarios for Dallas are the same as the clinching scenarios
for Philly.
Finally we get to the Dumpster fire that is the NFC North. Right now both
Chicago and Green Bay control their destinies (because they play each other
in week 17). However Chicago can clinch in week 16 but Green Bay Can't (
because Green Bay has a tie rather than a win).
Chicago Clinches the NFCN with:
Chicago win + Detriot Loss/Tie + Green Bay loss
Detroit is eliminated if:
1. Detroit loses + Chicago wins/ties
2. Detroit loses + Green Bay wins
Green Bay is eliminated if:
Green Bay loses + Chicago wins
I hope everyone finds this useful. | G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 2 靠。有毅力。
Seahawks应该能拿下。
现在主要的问题是Panthers和Saints谁是6号种子。
【在 R*3 的大作中提到】
: Everyone,
: Now that the Lions have proven they are still the lions losing a
: heartbreaker 16-18 to the Ravens, I can now give the full NFC Playoff
: Picture including clinches and elimination scenarios for week 16.
: To start here is the current Playoff Picture:
: #1 Seattle_x (NFCW), 12-2 (Div 3-1, Conf 9-1)
: #2 New Orleans (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 4-0, Conf 8-2)
: #3 Philly (NFCE), 8-6 (Div 3-2, Conf 7-3)
: #4 Chicago (NFCN), 8-6 (Div 2-3, Conf 4-6)
: #5 Carolina (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 3-1, Conf 7-3) [Head to Head vs San Fran]
| l*******z
发帖数: 4276 | 3 我觉得9人至少4成可能性最后一轮输Zona, regardless whether Zona plays for
anything.
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: 靠。有毅力。
: Seahawks应该能拿下。
: 现在主要的问题是Panthers和Saints谁是6号种子。
| P*******e
发帖数: 39399 | 4 你有点看低最近的9人了 他们没那么弱我觉得 呵呵
【在 l*******z 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得9人至少4成可能性最后一轮输Zona, regardless whether Zona plays for
: anything.
| A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 5 关键看红鸟对Seahawks之后还剩下几分力气，正常打主场足够灭49了，
连客场都是怕摸和妃子姐合力送大礼49才拿下。看高光49赢球还是CK
猛扔那种顶级外接才能抓得住的球加上海盗各种mistackle，碰上
防守强队还是个送INT的货。加上49貌似折了CK和戈尔都依赖的Bruce Miller
【在 P*******e 的大作中提到】
: 你有点看低最近的9人了 他们没那么弱我觉得 呵呵
| G**Y
发帖数: 33224 | 6 Seahawks夺SB趁早吧，明年NFCW要腥风血雨了。
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: 关键看红鸟对Seahawks之后还剩下几分力气，正常打主场足够灭49了，
: 连客场都是怕摸和妃子姐合力送大礼49才拿下。看高光49赢球还是CK
: 猛扔那种顶级外接才能抓得住的球加上海盗各种mistackle，碰上
: 防守强队还是个送INT的货。加上49貌似折了CK和戈尔都依赖的Bruce Miller
| A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 7 未必啊，明年小羊又是布拉夫出来恶心人加上49多年摆烂吃的老本
快花完了一年不如一年，倒是红鸟如果真搞来个能用的QB就厉害了
【在 G**Y 的大作中提到】
: Seahawks夺SB趁早吧，明年NFCW要腥风血雨了。
| l*******z
发帖数: 4276 | 8 我觉得相反，小羊基本是一个2号签加自己的top 10, 可以签个QB 再加一个猛人，如果
空间够就留下布拉夫一年。
确实红鸟有个牛逼的QB就牛，但NFL 有几个队不是呢？以他们的顺位，谈何容易
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: 未必啊，明年小羊又是布拉夫出来恶心人加上49多年摆烂吃的老本
: 快花完了一年不如一年，倒是红鸟如果真搞来个能用的QB就厉害了
| l*******z
发帖数: 4276 | 9 我觉得我很客观的，而且不要忘了他们这周MNF,到时候看Vegas吧。
【在 P*******e 的大作中提到】
: 你有点看低最近的9人了 他们没那么弱我觉得 呵呵
| A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 10 小羊手捏布拉夫这个大号鸡肋，未必会抓QB.而且说起来缺QB的球队虽然多，
但是就有那些个千年烂队能干出来第三轮抓Richardson的事来。不说TB和RW
这些奇迹，大本老猪都是一二轮很靠后的了。倒是前边抓的那一堆堆QB
或者overrated，或者不幸进了有硬伤的烂队反而打不出来。红鸟强在教练
终于靠谱了。
【在 l*******z 的大作中提到】
: 我觉得相反，小羊基本是一个2号签加自己的top 10, 可以签个QB 再加一个猛人，如果
: 空间够就留下布拉夫一年。
: 确实红鸟有个牛逼的QB就牛，但NFL 有几个队不是呢？以他们的顺位，谈何容易
| l*******z
发帖数: 4276 | 11 我觉得如果德老不要桥水小羊肯定要了，鸡肋不说，还非常贵。多出的钱可以换两个很
不错的自由人了。
这两队教练和底子都不错，但看翻身的资本，明显小羊好多了。
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: 小羊手捏布拉夫这个大号鸡肋，未必会抓QB.而且说起来缺QB的球队虽然多，
: 但是就有那些个千年烂队能干出来第三轮抓Richardson的事来。不说TB和RW
: 这些奇迹，大本老猪都是一二轮很靠后的了。倒是前边抓的那一堆堆QB
: 或者overrated，或者不幸进了有硬伤的烂队反而打不出来。红鸟强在教练
: 终于靠谱了。
|
|
