a****r
发帖数: 4965 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
发信人: ubuntus (), 信区: Immigration
标 题: Charlie Oppenheim check-in (2020-06-18)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 18 21:17:31 2020, 美东)
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories
EB-1 ROW remains current in July and should remain so through the end of
this fiscal year.
In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August
15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China
adjustment of status (AOS) cases pending at USCIS. EB-1 India again advances
significantly, moving forward eleven months from June 8, 2016 to May 8,
2017.
This rapid advancement is made possible by the infusion of otherwise unused
numbers falling up from EB-5 and the lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide
demand. Charlie is consulting with USCIS regarding their processing capacity
and to determine how much of the outstanding demand is close to completion
in order to understand what can realistically be approved before the end of
the fiscal year.
EB-2 ROW remains current in July and should do so through FY2020. EB-2 China
advancement slows to one week, moving modestly from November 1, 2015 to
November 8, 2015. In contrast, EB-2 India advances more rapidly by three
weeks, from June 12, 2009 to July 8, 2009. As with EB-1 China and EB-1 India
, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in these
categories and relatively low rest of world demand.
EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits
this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to
reaching its worldwide limits.
EB-3 ROW and EB-3 ROW Other workers which advanced more than ten months in
June, advances at a significant yet slower five month pace in July 2020 from
November 8, 2017 to April 15, 2018.
Similar to EB-1 India, there is a large amount of pre-adjudicated demand in
EB-3 ROW, making it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa
issuances this fiscal year. However, as also noted above, this category is
much closer to reaching its annual limit than the other categories.
EB-3 China advancement slows to one week in July from June 15, 2016 to June
22, 2016. EB-3 China Other Workers starts to advance again in July by one
week from July 15, 2008 to July 22, 2008. As EB-2 China and EB-3 China both
advance by one week in July, the spread between them remains the same, with
EB-3 Chinas final action date holding at 7.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. EB-
3 India and EB-3 India Other Workers both advance two months in July from
April 1, 2009 to June 1, 2009.
EB-4 ROW remains current in July. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras
advances 1.5 months from December 15, 2016 to February 1, 2017 and is likely
to hold at this date through the remainder of the fiscal year. EB-4 Mexico
advances one week, from June 8, 2018 to June 15, 2018. Members should
continue to watch EB-4 Mexico for potential movement. It is too early to
predict what will happen in the remaining months of FY2020.
EB-5 India (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) becomes current in July and
will remain so through FY2020. EB-5 Worldwide (including El Salvador,
Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico and Philippines), Regional and Non-Regional
Centers, remains current in July and will remain so through this fiscal year
as well. EB-5 China (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances one week
in July from July 15, 2015 to July 22, 2015. EB-5 Vietnam (Regional and Non-
Regional Centers) advances three weeks in July from April 22, 2017 to May 15
, 2017.
Visa Bulletin Predictions Q
QUESTION: In last months Check In, Charlie said that *it is unlikely that
the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020*. If that is the case,
why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of
attracting as many approvals as possible?
ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason
based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with
no reasonable expectation of actual number use.
Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to
the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad
is limited to *mission critical* processing, which is defined at the
discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases
based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.
Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the
pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular
posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the
employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with
number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.
The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result
in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies (and States
) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an
even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase
actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements
would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which
should be avoided.
The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-
adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that
can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing
constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to
complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.
Given USCISs potential processing capacity and the current status of these
cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as
many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there
is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in
Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers
at USCIS, and at this time USCISs data does not demonstrate significant
USCIS demand for that category.
There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS
demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date
in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly
than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October
, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action
Date to reach March 8, 2015.
However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported
advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a
significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand,
sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this
time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future
changes cannot be ruled out.
Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach
their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so.
When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal
year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit.
Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most
likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual
limits this fiscal year.
QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be
short in FY2020?
ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related
issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically
controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there
could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual
limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able
to return to something approaching normal processing.
Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers
this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity,
there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-
sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.
Visa Bulletin Predictions Worldwide EB-3
In FY2020, we already enjoyed the second highest employment-based annual
limit in recent memory: 156K, which places the current per country limit at
almost 11K. I expect that in FY2021 there will be over 200K employment-based
numbers available, which is the highest number I can recall ever having in
a fiscal year, and which translates to a 14K per country limit, a 21.5%
increase over FY2020.
Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more than
compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and
processing returns to normal, these excess numbers will create the
possibility of significant advancement in EB-1 China, EB-1 India and EB-5
China, as well as the possibility of EB-3 Worldwide becoming current. Keep
in mind that the next fiscal year is just over 3 months away. | a****r
发帖数: 4965 | 2 奥本在Q／A里说了几点：
＂The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-
adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that
can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing
constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to
complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.＂
＂The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related
issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically
controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there
could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual
limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able
to return to something approaching normal processing.＂
奥本一边说今年EB可能会浪费25000名额，而EB-1 China／India、EB-2 China／India
里有很多人只需要重新做背景检查或者重交体检报告就可以拿卡，一边把EB-1／EB-2
China的排期下月只前进了一周。
其实中国EB-2中，去年放水交的485，既不需要重做背景检查，也不需要重交体检报告，
能很快地大批速绿，而减少EB名额浪费。但从7月排期看，奥本／USCIS是宁可浪费EB
名额，也不想EB-2 China拿更多的卡，剩下的大头都交给印度人了！
August
advances
【在 a****r 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Immigration 讨论区 】
: 发信人: ubuntus (), 信区: Immigration
: 标 题: Charlie Oppenheim check-in (2020-06-18)
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 18 21:17:31 2020, 美东)
: https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
: Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories
: EB-1 ROW remains current in July and should remain so through the end of
: this fiscal year.
: In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August
: 15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China
| a********n
发帖数: 34 | 3 我只是猜哈：会不会是因为下个月EB1/India前进太多，所以奥本为了照顾USCIS的工作
量，只把中国前进1周。毕竟他提到了USCIS的批卡能力有限。 | j*********j
发帖数: 17 | 4 别想了，印度eb2几十万人在那儿，给突击绿也是印度绿，中国的eb2没希望。
that
to
【在 a****r 的大作中提到】
: 奥本在Q／A里说了几点：
: ＂The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-
: adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that
: can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing
: constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to
: complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.＂
: ＂The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related
: issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically
: controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there
: could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual
| b*****k
发帖数: 35 | 5 pre-adjudicated cases 是什么意思呀？他们是用已经预留的名额，还是用新名额啊？
如果今年EB2 China 有名额没用完，明年是可以继续给EB2 China 吗，还是会按某种规
则就分给印度兄弟了？ | w********i
发帖数: 1721 | 6 有希望。中国的家庭团聚的名额会给中国的eb
: 别想了，印度eb2几十万人在那儿，给突击绿也是印度绿，中国的eb2没希望。
: that
: to
【在 j*********j 的大作中提到】
: 别想了，印度eb2几十万人在那儿，给突击绿也是印度绿，中国的eb2没希望。
:
: that
: to
| a****r
发帖数: 4965 | 7 pre-adjudicated cases 就是预审完毕，等排期发卡的。
今年EB如果有的较多的名额没用完，明年会给FB用，反之今年FB剩余的名额，明年会加
到EB上。
【在 b*****k 的大作中提到】
: pre-adjudicated cases 是什么意思呀？他们是用已经预留的名额，还是用新名额啊？
: 如果今年EB2 China 有名额没用完，明年是可以继续给EB2 China 吗，还是会按某种规
: 则就分给印度兄弟了？
| w********s
发帖数: 659 | 8 合着EB1 ROW剩下的都给印度了。
我个人认为，这就是个很好的mock S386。总数不变，看看移民局怎么分这块饼。现在
看来，那些觉得EB1 和2/3利益冲突的，觉得EB1至少能喝汤的，都是想多了。如果偏向
印度，需要区分EB123么？
我老说这个，在EB1版被版主警告，看看这里是啥下场。
that
to
【在 a****r 的大作中提到】
: 奥本在Q／A里说了几点：
: ＂The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-
: adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that
: can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing
: constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to
: complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.＂
: ＂The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related
: issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically
: controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there
: could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual
| r******p
发帖数: 1 | 9 同意。中国 EB 1/2/3 都只前进一周，明显是 ROW 的名额都给烙印了。
职业移民不分1 2 3， 大家都一样......
【在 w********s 的大作中提到】
: 合着EB1 ROW剩下的都给印度了。
: 我个人认为，这就是个很好的mock S386。总数不变，看看移民局怎么分这块饼。现在
: 看来，那些觉得EB1 和2/3利益冲突的，觉得EB1至少能喝汤的，都是想多了。如果偏向
: 印度，需要区分EB123么？
: 我老说这个，在EB1版被版主警告，看看这里是啥下场。
:
: that
: to
| j*********j
发帖数: 17 | 10 你这是明显不懂so如何分配阿，最近eb1大部分给了印度是因为印度史前pd多，中国没
有史前pd了。印度已经进到17年5月，中印再次捆绑就是共吃so的时候。为什么说eb2不
行，是因为印度几十万的eb2把中国路堵死了，导致中国eb2基本不可能大量吃so。看事
情不要只看眼前一米远的地方
【在 w********s 的大作中提到】
: 合着EB1 ROW剩下的都给印度了。
: 我个人认为，这就是个很好的mock S386。总数不变，看看移民局怎么分这块饼。现在
: 看来，那些觉得EB1 和2/3利益冲突的，觉得EB1至少能喝汤的，都是想多了。如果偏向
: 印度，需要区分EB123么？
: 我老说这个，在EB1版被版主警告，看看这里是啥下场。
:
: that
: to
| w********s
发帖数: 659 | 11 你说我懂不懂SO分配，是个伪命题。因为没有任何正式的法律规定SO该怎么分，这么说
起来，没有任何人懂SO怎么分。
你这么说，是默认SO该按PD分，这可不是法律规定的。为啥不能按国家平分，名额就是
按国家平分的。为啥之前FB剩下没有给过EB，现在就可以了。
总之，所谓政策都是看心情。
【在 j*********j 的大作中提到】
: 你这是明显不懂so如何分配阿，最近eb1大部分给了印度是因为印度史前pd多，中国没
: 有史前pd了。印度已经进到17年5月，中印再次捆绑就是共吃so的时候。为什么说eb2不
: 行，是因为印度几十万的eb2把中国路堵死了，导致中国eb2基本不可能大量吃so。看事
: 情不要只看眼前一米远的地方
|
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