y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 1 一篇老文章提到了奥本解释烙印2类升级3类的时候，在demand系统里是算2个，1个在2
类，1个在3类，只有拿到绿卡后才能完全消掉，同理推测，中国2升3或者3降2，应该也
是算2个。
http://www.visadoctors.com/intro/why-do-visa-numbers-surge-forw
Another issue that clouds prediction of visa demand and visa availability,
as explained by Mr. Oppenheim, is that neither USCIS nor DOS maintains
statistics on upgrades from the EB-3 category to the EB-2 preference
category. This can occur, for example, when an applicant applies for an EB-3
visa petition but then advances in his or her career or changes jobs and
becomes eligible for an EB-2 visa or marries an EB-2 applicant. In these
instances, the individual then has two visa numbers allocated to him. The
unused or duplicate visa number (EB-3) is only cancelled when the visa
applicant uses the EB-2 visa number during green card issuance. According to
Mr. Oppenheim, there are between 10,000 and 15,000 duplicate visas numbers
as a result of “upgrades” each fiscal year – a wide variance. For 2013,
that number is already at 17,000, which underscores the difficulty in
predicting upgrades and thus visa availability.
另外一篇老文章提到了奥本office如何和USCIS协调发卡，可以看出DOS和USCIS的合作
机制，重点是DOS要authorize visa number，才算拿到卡。因此我猜想内部U之后还有
卡发出去，或者排期倒退，还有个别人给批了，是DOS已经把这个visa number
authorize了，也就是所谓的预留吧。
http://usvisa.com/dos_provides_background_on_visa_allocation_pr | z****d
发帖数: 1761 | 2 奥本这么进2类不可能不知道有多少人会relink回去，会发多少卡。我觉得他们的目标
就是把2014年降级的那批人全部给绿了，visa用的刚刚好。 | y******0
发帖数: 8807 | 3 奥本这么进2类的目的只有这个：movement have been made to generate demand for
next year.
【在 z****d 的大作中提到】
: 奥本这么进2类不可能不知道有多少人会relink回去，会发多少卡。我觉得他们的目标
: 就是把2014年降级的那批人全部给绿了，visa用的刚刚好。
| z****d
发帖数: 1761 | 4 好吧。换种说法，这么进2类会带来两个后果，发卡和建库存。有没有可能把去年降级
的全部发光，奥本应该考虑到的。
for
【在 y******0 的大作中提到】
: 奥本这么进2类的目的只有这个：movement have been made to generate demand for
: next year.
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