f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 1 EB3C先前的请愿要求国会调查奥本分配EB3签证，奥本模板回复什么INA 203(e)，什么
SO必须按PD先后分之类的套话。
然后我们就回复3条：
1. 为什么demand data一直不公布，你在试图藏什么吗？
2. 为什么 FY2013 下半年故意减缓 EB3 ROW 排期使之无法形成足够 demand，从而将
SO 分配给印度？
3. 既然 EB3 ROW demand 不足为什么不 current？
果然这次奥本就公布了demand data，而且破天荒在后面加了3段话。重点在第二段：
Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485
adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third
preference (on which USCIS has not yet finalized action) for countries other
than India and the Philippines exceed the numbers currently available under
the INA guidelines. These filings are the result of the cut-off dates for
those countries having been advanced by over three years since April.
Such demand must be considered in the determination of the monthly cut-off
dates to prevent any unnecessary fluctuation in those dates.
言外之意就是说，EB3 已经收了足够的 I-485 case，之所以不设成 current，是为了
防止“unnecessary fluctuation”。但是可能不会再进了，也不大可能退了。
至于是不是确实收够了，是收够了一个季度的还是一年的？
下次 I-485 inventory 数据出来就知道了。 |
d*****8
发帖数: 402 | 2 上次485inventory是七月出的，那是不是这个月也该出一次了。。。
将
【在 f**u 的大作中提到】
: EB3C先前的请愿要求国会调查奥本分配EB3签证，奥本模板回复什么INA 203(e)，什么
: SO必须按PD先后分之类的套话。
: 然后我们就回复3条：
: 1. 为什么demand data一直不公布，你在试图藏什么吗？
: 2. 为什么 FY2013 下半年故意减缓 EB3 ROW 排期使之无法形成足够 demand，从而将
: SO 分配给印度？
: 3. 既然 EB3 ROW demand 不足为什么不 current？
: 果然这次奥本就公布了demand data，而且破天荒在后面加了3段话。重点在第二段：
: Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485
: adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third
|
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 3 上次7月截止的数据，拖了一个多月才发布。
【在 d*****8 的大作中提到】
: 上次485inventory是七月出的，那是不是这个月也该出一次了。。。
:
: 将
|
d*****8
发帖数: 402 | 4 哦
【在 f**u 的大作中提到】
: 上次7月截止的数据，拖了一个多月才发布。
|
s****a
发帖数: 279 | 5 多謝版主分析。
奧本字裏行間就是強調數據只在公開demand data的時候有用，而且是不確定的估計，
不具有普遍代表性。這種説辭我們很難抓到他人爲操縱的把柄。 |
w******d
发帖数: 59 | 6 Strange it is, with just some earlier post, it seems that they've already
processed the case priority-dated "2009/7".
It is just be beginning of FY 2014, why the hell he said the received demand
has already exceeded the quota? i.e. Does it make sense to believe the
demand between "2009/7 ~ 2010/7" is more than a year's quota based on the
observations and trend that came to shape recently. Let alone this was
definitely during the economic crisis where layoffs vastly happened. |
v***n
发帖数: 5085 | 7 I am not sure why you could assume ppl prior to 2009/07 have been processed.
demand
【在 w******d 的大作中提到】
: Strange it is, with just some earlier post, it seems that they've already
: processed the case priority-dated "2009/7".
: It is just be beginning of FY 2014, why the hell he said the received demand
: has already exceeded the quota? i.e. Does it make sense to believe the
: demand between "2009/7 ~ 2010/7" is more than a year's quota based on the
: observations and trend that came to shape recently. Let alone this was
: definitely during the economic crisis where layoffs vastly happened.
|
f**u
发帖数: 2769 | 8 奥本偷换概念，“USCIS 已收到的来自印度菲律宾以外的 EB3 I-485 超过移民法配额
”，可能有多种解读。他并不知道长期 pending 的有多少，有多少是由于排期前进而
新收的，有多少比例最终会被拒，等等。我们的观点是只要你按一样的统计口径，
demand 绝对数值低就应该根据规定大幅前进排期。他就是不想让排期进太快再倒退，
所以到处找借口。
demand
【在 w******d 的大作中提到】
: Strange it is, with just some earlier post, it seems that they've already
: processed the case priority-dated "2009/7".
: It is just be beginning of FY 2014, why the hell he said the received demand
: has already exceeded the quota? i.e. Does it make sense to believe the
: demand between "2009/7 ~ 2010/7" is more than a year's quota based on the
: observations and trend that came to shape recently. Let alone this was
: definitely during the economic crisis where layoffs vastly happened.
|
w******d
发帖数: 59 | 9 So you mean they can randomly pick any case from the stack to process at
will on the daily basis?
processed.
【在 v***n 的大作中提到】
: I am not sure why you could assume ppl prior to 2009/07 have been processed.
:
: demand
|
p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 10 I think it is monthly basis.
【在 w******d 的大作中提到】
: So you mean they can randomly pick any case from the stack to process at
: will on the daily basis?
:
: processed.
|
t****e
发帖数: 517 | 11 "exceed the numbers currently available under the INA guidelines" 意思是EB3C
/ROW可能会倒退吗？
将
【在 f**u 的大作中提到】
: EB3C先前的请愿要求国会调查奥本分配EB3签证，奥本模板回复什么INA 203(e)，什么
: SO必须按PD先后分之类的套话。
: 然后我们就回复3条：
: 1. 为什么demand data一直不公布，你在试图藏什么吗？
: 2. 为什么 FY2013 下半年故意减缓 EB3 ROW 排期使之无法形成足够 demand，从而将
: SO 分配给印度？
: 3. 既然 EB3 ROW demand 不足为什么不 current？
: 果然这次奥本就公布了demand data，而且破天荒在后面加了3段话。重点在第二段：
: Information received from USCIS indicates that the amount of I-485
: adjustment of status applications already filed in the Employment Third
|
v***n
发帖数: 5085 | 12 not necessarily, they need to keep the demand data at certain level. Think
about the system as the RAM-Disk cache
EB3C
【在 t****e 的大作中提到】
: "exceed the numbers currently available under the INA guidelines" 意思是EB3C
: /ROW可能会倒退吗？
:
: 将
|
v***n
发帖数: 5085 | 13 given factors as PD/RD/RFE, essentially it is randomly picked.
【在 w******d 的大作中提到】
: So you mean they can randomly pick any case from the stack to process at
: will on the daily basis?
:
: processed.
|
i*****e
发帖数: 70 | 14 闹一闹，给奥本点压力总是好的。不能怕事怕麻烦。 |
