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发帖数: 126 | 1 Harry Reid: Getting 60 Votes For Immigration Reform Will Be 'Pretty Easy'
The Huffington Post | By Elise Foley Posted: 05/29/2013 10:31 am EDT
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WASHINGTON -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) predicted on
Tuesday a relatively easy path to passage for the bipartisan "gang of eight"
immigration bill, saying he thinks he can get eight Republican votes and
nearly all Democratic members.
“I talked about this to a number of my senators today, and what he wanted
to say is they haven’t done a whip count on this yet," Reid said in a
taping for "To the Point," according to the Las Vegas Sun. "I think we have
60 votes. Remember, we start out at 55 Democrats. I think the most I’ll
lose is two or three. Let’s say I wind up with 52 Democrats. I only need
eight Republicans, and I already have four, so that should be pretty easy."
The bill must cross a 60-vote threshold to avoid a filibuster, but not
everyone is convinced the bill is there yet. Reid's comments were in
contrast to ones made last week by Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), a member of
the gang of eight. There are four Republicans -- Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.),
John McCain (R-Ariz.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) --
in the group who also support the bill; Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) voted for
it in the Judiciary Committee, although he has not yet said whether he will
support its passage on the Senate floor.
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said Sunday on ABC's "This Week" that he would like
to support the bill but wants some amendments first.
Menendez said despite the support from those Republicans, they weren't yet
to 60 votes.
"We need to add more votes on the floor," Menendez told Univision anchor
Jorge Ramos in an interview that aired Sunday on "Al Punto." "That means
that the community in your state, in every state, should be contacting your
state’s two U.S. senators saying that they want comprehensive immigration
reform, that they are going to judge their political future based on this
vote. And if we do this, both in the Senate and, later, with the members of
the House of Representatives, we can achieve the victory that we want."
An unnamed aide to Rubio told the Washington Post's Jennifer Rubin on
Tuesday that the senator also believes the group has more work to do to get
to 60 votes.
Reid predicted in February on ABC's "This Week" that the immigration reform
would pass in the end.
"It's certainly gonna pass the Senate," Reid told host George Stephanopoulos
of immigration reform. "And it would be a bad day for our country and a bad
day for the Republican Party if they continue standing in the way of this.
So the answer is yes." | w***a
发帖数: 4361 | 2 米某一会儿会崩出来说900页废纸云云
【在 v***g 的大作中提到】
: Harry Reid: Getting 60 Votes For Immigration Reform Will Be 'Pretty Easy'
: The Huffington Post | By Elise Foley Posted: 05/29/2013 10:31 am EDT
: Share on Google+
: Harry Reid Immigration
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| a****a
发帖数: 3905 | 3 60票过senate没啥问题。现在的问题是能不能搞到70票。
70票的话，说明至少15个GOP参议员投的赞成票，也就是GOP党内1/3的支持率，一方面
说明有足够的bipartisan support，一方面说明GOP党内支持CIR的力量足够大。这样的
话House的GOP leader就算不情愿也没啥太多花头玩了。
像米老师说的GOP Leader为了党忍辱负重背黑锅反对CIR的事情根本不会发生。因为现
在不是GOP的议员需要西裔的支持，而是GOP这个党需要西裔的支持才能在总统选举的游
戏里玩下去。
现在的GOP支持者中，business, catholic, evangelical都是支持CIR的，坚定的反对
者就是红脖子而已。GOP议员投赞成还是反对的政治考虑更多的不是在general
election的时候自己能不能拿到西裔选民的支持，而是在初选时会不会因为投赞成票而
被tea party搞下去。 | m******k
发帖数: 447 | 4 关于加州共和党在众议院的数量，我记得的最近数字是十九席(update: 15 now)。号称
自由派大本营的加
州，其实是仅次于德州的第二大共和党众议院席位来源。
在这些加州共和党优势选区，都已经出现了民主党登记党员超过共和党的现象。拉丁裔
是关键因素，亚裔是另外一个因素（从去年大选的出口民调看，亚裔对奥巴马的支持率
还高于拉丁裔）
这些加州共和党众议员将如何选择，不难推断吧。
【在 a****a 的大作中提到】
: 60票过senate没啥问题。现在的问题是能不能搞到70票。
: 70票的话，说明至少15个GOP参议员投的赞成票，也就是GOP党内1/3的支持率，一方面
: 说明有足够的bipartisan support，一方面说明GOP党内支持CIR的力量足够大。这样的
: 话House的GOP leader就算不情愿也没啥太多花头玩了。
: 像米老师说的GOP Leader为了党忍辱负重背黑锅反对CIR的事情根本不会发生。因为现
: 在不是GOP的议员需要西裔的支持，而是GOP这个党需要西裔的支持才能在总统选举的游
: 戏里玩下去。
: 现在的GOP支持者中，business, catholic, evangelical都是支持CIR的，坚定的反对
: 者就是红脖子而已。GOP议员投赞成还是反对的政治考虑更多的不是在general
: election的时候自己能不能拿到西裔选民的支持，而是在初选时会不会因为投赞成票而
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