a****l
发帖数: 245 | 1 文章大意：参议院提出的移民改革可能会在共和党控制的众议院搁浅。大多数共和党众
议院议员们来自白人主导的选区，因而这些众议员只关心白人的利益，对移民改革没有
兴趣也没有动力：共和党没有赢得总统大选，但是他们在众议院还是多数。他们有可能
会投反对票，或者议案根本不会被投票。
感觉众议院下星期的表态很重要。共和党参议员们更关心移民改革，一部分原因他们其
中总有人要参加总统竞选，而且他们站在全国的高度看问题，这点和众议员很不同。
http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-immigration-reform-
Passage depends on Republicans who have no experience with minority outreach
, and that might be too much to overcome.
As immigration reform begins its journey through the byzantine halls of the
Senate and Washington fetes another bipartisan "Gang," spare a thought for
the other side of the Capitol building. Immigration reform sputtered in a
Republican-controlled House of Representatives in 2006, and the political
and demographic makeup of this year's House GOP hints why we could be headed
in that direction again.
With very few exceptions, legislation cannot advance in the House without
the support of a "majority of the majority" party. A Senate-passed
immigration proposal probably had enough votes to pass the House, too, in
2006, but House Republicans never let it get to the floor, because their
caucus didn't support it.
Fully 131 of the 233 House Republicans represent districts that are more
than 80 percent white. Not only have many of those members opposed measures
beyond improving border security in the past, but there are also no natural
pressure groups for immigration reform in their districts. The Democratic
Caucus, which is largely unified in support of some sort of immigration-
reform proposal, has just 31 members from such very white districts.
Infographic
Meanwhile, at least 216 House Republicans come from districts that voted for
Mitt Romney over President Obama in November. Jobs and the economy were the
prevailing issues in these areas, but the voters in those districts also
proved they weren't turned off by a candidate who championed "self-
deportation" as an immigration policy.
These factors add up to a House Republican Conference entrenched in the
areas of the country that, just three months ago, signaled very strong
support for the GOP in its 2012 iteration, whichwas uninterested in
immigration reform. And while the national party has embarked on a period of
introspection forced by a crushing national loss, many House Republicans
saw their individual victories as mandates to carry on. A number of members
represent districts so safe -- both politically and demographically -- that
they don't need to step out on immigration reform. Some surely fear
potential primaries more than standing in the way of a deal: State
legislatures across the country are dotted with ambitious Republicans who
voted for Arizona-style immigration-enforcement laws over the past few years
. There are murky incentives, at most, for GOP representatives from this
overlapping cross-section to support bipartisan immigration reform.
Those Republicans who do aggressive minority outreach may also end up
opposing an immigration-reform package. Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., opposes a
pathway to citizenship for adult undocumented immigrants, his office said,
and a Dream Act solution for younger immigrants might or might not get his
support, depending on the specifics. Still, the second-term Republican "is
not seen as inflexible on immigration reform," according to Nevada politics
guru Jon Ralston. That is in large part because Heck made sure -- before and
during his first term in a suburban, 36 percent nonwhite district -- to
establish roots in his constituency's minority communities.
Heck makes regular visits to Hispanic chambers of commerce, Filipino
businesses, and even an out-of-district Chinatown where many of his
constituents shop, to connect with minority voters who have been slipping
away from the GOP. Heck prevailed in November even as Romney trailed Obama
in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District. When asked if Republicans in general
were making outreach efforts like his, Heck responded, "Honestly, I don't
believe they are."
"As a party we have to realize that those who ignore ethnic voters do so at
own peril," Heck said in a December interview on improving Republican
outreach. And to him, that includes those House members who don't have many
ethnic voters in their districts. "I would say they need to look past their
own political future and their own districts," Heck said. "While they may be
in a safe district or a non-minority district, for the party to be
sustainable in the future we've got to think about things at a national
scale. Not 'how does this affect me and my district.' "
Popular Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., has undergone a significant, public
evolution on key pieces of immigration reform, and he could provide cover
for some "flexible" Republican House members, like those whose districts
have large minority populations, to support an immigration-reform bill on
the floor. But just 47 House Republicans represent districts that are less
white than the national average, not nearly enough power to bring a bill to
the floor of the House. The fate of immigration reform will rely on many
Republican members who have never even stretched their muscles on minority
outreach, and that might be too much to overcome. | t****d
发帖数: 423 | 2 ob都说了，如果众议院过不了，他会强行投票的
就像obama care一样
outreach
the
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 文章大意：参议院提出的移民改革可能会在共和党控制的众议院搁浅。大多数共和党众
: 议院议员们来自白人主导的选区，因而这些众议员只关心白人的利益，对移民改革没有
: 兴趣也没有动力：共和党没有赢得总统大选，但是他们在众议院还是多数。他们有可能
: 会投反对票，或者议案根本不会被投票。
: 感觉众议院下星期的表态很重要。共和党参议员们更关心移民改革，一部分原因他们其
: 中总有人要参加总统竞选，而且他们站在全国的高度看问题，这点和众议员很不同。
: http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-immigration-reform-
: Passage depends on Republicans who have no experience with minority outreach
: , and that might be too much to overcome.
: As immigration reform begins its journey through the byzantine halls of the
| g*****n
发帖数: 2588 | 3 ob都说了，如果众议院过不了，他会强行投票的
-----
什么意思？如果众议院投票不过，他能怎么办？ | B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 4 强行投票谁来投？
【在 g*****n 的大作中提到】
: ob都说了，如果众议院过不了，他会强行投票的
: -----
: 什么意思？如果众议院投票不过，他能怎么办？
| p**j
发帖数: 7063 | 5 那时候民主党同时控制两院，现在不同。
【在 t****d 的大作中提到】
: ob都说了，如果众议院过不了，他会强行投票的
: 就像obama care一样
:
: outreach
: the
| f******s
发帖数: 983 | 6 等看众院出的法案把，这次非法不过的话，合法移民的改革也是不可能的事情 | g*****n
发帖数: 2588 | | u*******r
发帖数: 2855 | 8 嘿嘿
重点在于boehner会不会把议案拿出来表决。。。
如果能表决，基本会过。。。。
outreach
the
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 文章大意：参议院提出的移民改革可能会在共和党控制的众议院搁浅。大多数共和党众
: 议院议员们来自白人主导的选区，因而这些众议员只关心白人的利益，对移民改革没有
: 兴趣也没有动力：共和党没有赢得总统大选，但是他们在众议院还是多数。他们有可能
: 会投反对票，或者议案根本不会被投票。
: 感觉众议院下星期的表态很重要。共和党参议员们更关心移民改革，一部分原因他们其
: 中总有人要参加总统竞选，而且他们站在全国的高度看问题，这点和众议员很不同。
: http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-immigration-reform-
: Passage depends on Republicans who have no experience with minority outreach
: , and that might be too much to overcome.
: As immigration reform begins its journey through the byzantine halls of the
| g*****n
发帖数: 2588 | 9 怎么知道？众议院投票不过，那才是最要命的
【在 u*******r 的大作中提到】
: 嘿嘿
: 重点在于boehner会不会把议案拿出来表决。。。
: 如果能表决，基本会过。。。。
:
: outreach
: the
| l***f
发帖数: 618 | 10 既然众议院STEM都过了的话，我想这个妥协的法案应该不成问题啊。 | j*******n
发帖数: 3254 | 11 Stem is totally different from this!
【在 l***f 的大作中提到】
: 既然众议院STEM都过了的话，我想这个妥协的法案应该不成问题啊。
| l***f
发帖数: 618 | 12 they should have an under-table negotiation, man!
【在 j*******n 的大作中提到】
: Stem is totally different from this!
| C****a
发帖数: 6593 | 13 不过的话，大统领直接blame共和党，共和党中期选举肯定完蛋
outreach
the
【在 a****l 的大作中提到】
: 文章大意：参议院提出的移民改革可能会在共和党控制的众议院搁浅。大多数共和党众
: 议院议员们来自白人主导的选区，因而这些众议员只关心白人的利益，对移民改革没有
: 兴趣也没有动力：共和党没有赢得总统大选，但是他们在众议院还是多数。他们有可能
: 会投反对票，或者议案根本不会被投票。
: 感觉众议院下星期的表态很重要。共和党参议员们更关心移民改革，一部分原因他们其
: 中总有人要参加总统竞选，而且他们站在全国的高度看问题，这点和众议员很不同。
: http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/why-immigration-reform-
: Passage depends on Republicans who have no experience with minority outreach
: , and that might be too much to overcome.
: As immigration reform begins its journey through the byzantine halls of the
|
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