y*******g
发帖数: 247 | 1 http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=
While we can always hope for members of Congress to see reason, the reality
is that they (and the President) are pursuing their own political agendas. I
think that the President wants to raise immigration issues at ever
opportunity because he knows that the Republican response will always be "no
." Things may change a bit in the months ahead as primary election season
winds down.
Up until now, it has been possible for an extreme right wing candidate to
get into a primary and challenge a solidly conservative Republican over an
issue like a vote for an immigration provision. Recall that two years ago,
Senator Bennett of Utah, one of the most conservative members of the Senate,
was defeated in a primary because he wasn't conservative enough. Sen.
Bennett had taken some common sense positions on immigration and those votes
went a long way toward defeating him in the primary (Republican voter only,
in his case) election. That lesson was not lost on other Republican
incumbents.
In the 2010 election, about one-third of the Tea Party endorsed candidates
won election to Congress. They have had a major impact on the legislative
agenda, particular with respect to immigration. They have also made some
colossal political blunders along the way and their influence has slipped
considerably. I don't think that they are viewed as the threat that they
once were. After all, if they had serious clout within the Republican party,
would Romney be the front runner for the nomination?
With this in mind, we may see more moderate minded Republican members of
Congress willing to vote their conscience on immigration issues. This does
not mean that they are suddenly going to embrace an amnesty bill, but I
think that there is a good chance that they might be willing to consider
sensible legal immigration reform.
The Republican presidential contest has pushed the image of that party far
to the right. Romney is the only candidate without solid conservative
credentials and he is doing everything possible to paint himself as a
conservative - at least until he gets the nomination. We are already hearing
from Republican strategists that the party has to take a more moderate tone
on immigration or risk a debacle in November.
Much has been written about the Latino vote and its growing influence in
American politics. Personally, most Latinos that I know are social
conservatives. At the same time, they genuinely resent being demonized as a
group by nutjobs on the right. This is one of the things that scares the
hell out of Republican strategists. Something that is overlooked, however,
is the growing group of naturalized citizens and their U.S. born children.
The anti-immigration xenophobes have done an excellent job of alienating
them as well. These folks, for the most part, are highly motivated to not
just vote, but also contribute to campaigns. Again, for the most part,
recent immigrants tend to be social conservatives. With their extreme
rhetoric, however, Republicans have driven them into the arms of their
opposition, at least for now. After all, who wants to vote for someone who
makes a living calling you a parasite?
For all of these reasons, I think that the Republicans are going to have to
undertake a serious effort to make peace with Latinos specifically, and all
immigrants generally. If they don't, they will cease to be a viable
political party in ten years. The lesson of the FDR coalition, built in the
1930s, has not been lost on Republicans. Once you let a group bond with the
other party, you have pretty much lost them for two or three generations.
Republicans are at that crossroads right now. Unless they do something soon,
they are going to lose key voting blocks for a long time.
With this in mind, I think that we will see Congressional Republicans make
an effort to find legal immigration reform legislation that they can support
and get it passed before the November election. At that point, the question
becomes will the Democrats let them? I'm sure the Democrats will do
everything in their power to prevent the Republicans from trying to heal
this breach.
In the end, no one is a good guy here. It all comes down to naked political
advantage. | p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | | l****l
发帖数: 3394 | 3 The NVC tries to issue fee bills about six months before they think that an
applicant's priority will become current. Right now, however, everything is
in flux. From the way the Visa Office is moving dates forward, it is clear
that they do not believe that the USCIS will be able to adjudicate enough
EB2 I-485 applications to use up the quota. The only way to make up the
difference is to qualify enough people for overseas consular processing to
fill the void. For this reason, the NVC may be issuing fee bills earlier
than they would have do so otherwise. Don't try to read anything into this;
it isn't an exact science. Just follow their instructions, promptly and to
the letter. If your PD becomes current, they can set you up for a visa
interview right away - provided your file is complete. |
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