d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 1 EB2-China & India FY 2011 Movement Based on June Visa Bulletin
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/eb2-china-india-f
Saturday, May 14, 2011 | AOS , EB2 Predictions , Employment-Based , Green
Card , I-485
June 2011 Visa Bulletin has released, and EB2-India and China finally had a
significant movement that was hoped after Mr. Charlie Oppenheim made a
statement about atleast 12,000 unused visa numbers available from EB1
category for spillover to EB2 category. EB-2 China moved forward by two and
a half (2.5) months to October 15, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward
after last month’s notable 7-week advancement by three and a half (3.5)
months to October 15, 2006. In this article we will like to analyze
statements in Visa Bulletin and discuss where EB2-IC will stand by end of
this fiscal year (September 2011),
Notes from June Visa Bulletin for EB2-IC movement
"As mentioned in the May Visa Bulletin, Section 202(a)(5) of the Immigration
and Nationality Act (INA) prescribes rules for the use of potentially “
otherwise unused” Employment numbers. During May the India Employment
Second preference cut-off date is governing the use of such numbers, because
India had reached its Employment Second annual limit."
There is nothing new in this statement. This was previously mentioned in May
visa bulletin. EB2 India has reached it's annual limit and has started
using yearly spillover or unused visa numbers from EB1.
"Since October there has been heavy demand by applicants "upgrading" their
status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference. The rapid
forward movement of the India Employment Second preference cut-off date in
May had the potential to greatly increase such demand. Therefore, the
determination of the June cut-off dates was delayed in order to monitor this
demand. At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal;
this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the
use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June."
As DOS mentioned in their past visa bulletin that they were interested in
gauging EB3-EB2 porting demand and were very cautious before they could
start using the unused visa numbers to progress EB2-IC dates. They checked
demand for upgrade for first 10 days of May before advancing dates.
Seriously .... they thought they will know the new porting demand in 10 days
when PERM approval rate are at a year low level since past two months, and
DOL is looking more to approve audit cases. Other than this, advancing dates
only to 01 July 2006 for last bulletin would have not given them any real
demand what they were looking for, unless they were worried about porting
demand for PDs from 2002 to May 2006.
So my take on the statement "new upgrade demand has been minimal" is that
most of the individuals with PDs between 2002 and May 2006 has exhausted
their means, and others who are still working on it are stuck in PERM
approval queue.
Advancing dates for EB2-IC to '15 October 2006' in June visa bulletin is a
good move by DOS to gauge new upgrade demand for PDs in 2006, and at the
same time this allows continuous demand for folks with PD pre-May 2006. In
doing so DOS has exhausted almost 10,000-12,000 unused visa numbers
available from EB1 category.
"The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second
preference. Note that under INA Section 203(e) all of the “otherwise unused
” numbers must be provided strictly in priority date order regardless of
the applicant’s chargeability"
As mentioned in our past posts that spillover is used within a category
purely based on First In First Out (FIFO) principle regardless of applicant'
s country of chargeability.
"Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because
of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates
are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in
India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to
slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal
year 2011."
We will discuss this in detail below.
What can we expect for EB2-IC for rest of the fiscal year 2011?
Since DOS has completely used the available 10-12k unused visa numbers from
the EB1 category this portends that we should expect small or no movement
for EB2-IC in July visa bulletin. Any further movement for EB2-IC will only
be due to unused visa numbers available from EB5 and EB2-ROW-M-P category.
EB2-ROW-M-P demand (FA)
But recent analysis of EB2-ROW-M-P PERM data for first two quarter suggests
that demand for EB2-ROW-M-P for current fiscal year will be around 28,600 +
2,000. If this trend would change, we could see more demand (e.g. few
unsuccessful EB1 folks from first quarter of fiscal year trying under EB2-
ROW) as we will move towards end of fiscal year and EB2-ROW-M-P could yield
no or less visa numbers as spillover. As of now we should expect only 5000
at most from EB2-ROW-M-P demand and as less as 3000.
EB5 demand (FU)
It is difficult to gauge EB5 demand. But if this year will see more demand
for EB5 compared to last year, number of visa numbers available could be
less. We expect at least 4000- 6000 unused visa numbers from EB5.
EB3 to EB2 Porting demand (PO)
How upgrade demand would shake up in coming months is far beyond calculable.
All we can do is predict and assume. In coming months majority of demand
could be from folks with PD after May 2006 and some portion could be from
those who are currently in PERM queue. These numbers can be anywhere from
2000-2500. These are numbers which will control retrogression or stall of
EB2-IC cut-off dates atleast for July visa bulletin.
Now some good news (EB1)
Knowing Mr. Oppenheim he would have never used all it's unused visa number
unless he was sure he has enough lying under his sleeves in case EB2-ROW
demand surges far beyond it's annual limit for current fiscal year. This
suggest that DOS believes that either EB5 demand will yield atleast enough
numbers that we predict or EB1 demand has potential to yield more (say
atleast more 4000 -6000 visas).
Spillover available for the remaining fiscal year
Minimum = FA (lower bound) + FU (lower bound) +EB1 (lower bound) - PO (
higher bound)
= 3000 + 4000 + 4000 - 2500 = 8500
Maximum = FA (upper bound) + FU (upper bound) +EB1 (upper bound) - PO (lower
bound)
= 5000 + 6000 + 6000 - 2000 = 15000
Summarizing above headers
EB2-IC movement has potential to progress slowly or stall in July visa
bulletin due to porting numbers and any increase in demand beyond expected
can cause EB2-IC to retrogress in July visa bulletin. Expected movement for
EB2-IC in coming visa bulletins is listed below. If this is it from EB1
category and we will not receive any more unused visas then EB2-IC will not
cross December 2006. | c****r
发帖数: 969 | 2 多谢和大家分享，这个SO的估算是刨掉已经用掉的吗？
a
and
【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: EB2-China & India FY 2011 Movement Based on June Visa Bulletin
: http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/05/eb2-china-india-f
: Saturday, May 14, 2011 | AOS , EB2 Predictions , Employment-Based , Green
: Card , I-485
: June 2011 Visa Bulletin has released, and EB2-India and China finally had a
: significant movement that was hoped after Mr. Charlie Oppenheim made a
: statement about atleast 12,000 unused visa numbers available from EB1
: category for spillover to EB2 category. EB-2 China moved forward by two and
: a half (2.5) months to October 15, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward
: after last month’s notable 7-week advancement by three and a half (3.5)
| d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 3 MIN MAX
JULY No -08 NOV 06 15NOV06
AUGUST 01JAN07 01MAR07
SEPTEMBER 08FEB07 08MA07-01JUN07 | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 4 不用客气，我只是转载过来和大家分享，没有仔细研究这些数据。
好象斑主不允许附上连接，不贴原贴地址，觉得不妥，毕竟是别人的工作，而且也希望
让大家看到更多的信息。【 在 cooker (未名) 的大作中提到: 】 | A****S
发帖数: 978 | 5 thanks for sharing.
very good stuff!
【在 d******8 的大作中提到】
: 不用客气，我只是转载过来和大家分享，没有仔细研究这些数据。
: 好象斑主不允许附上连接，不贴原贴地址，觉得不妥，毕竟是别人的工作，而且也希望
: 让大家看到更多的信息。【 在 cooker (未名) 的大作中提到: 】
| d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 6 应该谢谢你，经常原创数据分析的好贴子。
【在 A****S 的大作中提到】
: thanks for sharing.
: very good stuff!
| r*******3
发帖数: 711 | 7 "dos has used 12k comletely
for june movement"?
i'm confused. | w**t
发帖数: 893 | 8 Based on the demand data in April, 12000 so will move eb2ic to Oct 1 to 15
【在 r*******3 的大作中提到】
: "dos has used 12k comletely
: for june movement"?
: i'm confused.
| r*******3
发帖数: 711 | 9 i see. thanks.
【在 w**t 的大作中提到】
: Based on the demand data in April, 12000 so will move eb2ic to Oct 1 to 15
| w***7
发帖数: 5568 | 10 这个预测是非常保守的估计。基本是过估了EB3I=>EB2I同时低估了SO。不过给大家了一
个起码的排期底线。
说起来也真是悲催，刚砸出来的12K SO EB2C连1K都没弄到就被老印全部活吞了。 | j***y
发帖数: 1640 | 11 It is so naive.
Very bad analysis.
How can we stall in July? | d****y
发帖数: 1671 | 12 No, it's not naive. It's conservative but somewhat reasonable.
Please don't call people naive if you don't know more than they do.
Also, historic data shows no or little July movement. Besides July is the
first month of the last quarter.
【在 j***y 的大作中提到】
: It is so naive.
: Very bad analysis.
: How can we stall in July?
| w**t
发帖数: 893 | 13 agree. this analysis is reasonable although a little bit conservative.
If the remaining SO is not large, it is possible that July PD has little
movement.
But since Mr.O issue the 12000 during June, I would think that there is a
big number of SO remaining. Otherwise, he would have no motivation to use
the 12000 so early. The only reason I can think of is USCIS gave hime data
indicating large SO remaining and they want to make sure to average the
number across the several months.
【在 d****y 的大作中提到】
: No, it's not naive. It's conservative but somewhat reasonable.
: Please don't call people naive if you don't know more than they do.
: Also, historic data shows no or little July movement. Besides July is the
: first month of the last quarter.
| a**n
发帖数: 2431 | 14 sounds reasonable but I still keep a conservative stance
【在 w**t 的大作中提到】
: agree. this analysis is reasonable although a little bit conservative.
: If the remaining SO is not large, it is possible that July PD has little
: movement.
: But since Mr.O issue the 12000 during June, I would think that there is a
: big number of SO remaining. Otherwise, he would have no motivation to use
: the 12000 so early. The only reason I can think of is USCIS gave hime data
: indicating large SO remaining and they want to make sure to average the
: number across the several months.
|
|
