S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 1 摘要：
1.老印EB3->EB2的port没有想象中那么恐怖。理由是有能力升级的人早就这么做了。
2.EB2I的排期马上就能快速前进，因为对比去年5月EB2I的库存已经消除了2万多。
http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-12/how-bad-india-eb2-backlog.html
How bad is the India EB2 backlog?
You may be pleasantly surprised.
The conventional Internet wisdom is that the India EB2 backlog is going to
stretch out for many, many years and that applicants should abandon all hope
. This is nonsense. The reality of the situation is that there is
significant cause for optimism. This conclusion is based on an analysis of
recent visa issuance, reporting of backlogs, and quite a bit of anecdotal
evidence.
Let’s start with some raw numbers. For the month of December, the India EB2
cutoff date is May 8, 2006. In October of 2009, that cutoff date was April
1, 2004.
We have seen a steady decline in the numbers of India EB2 adjustment of
status, according to the CIS:
May, 2009 47,728
Dec, 2009 40,022
Mar, 2010 39,081
May, 2010 38,974
Oct, 2010 24,254
These figures are specific to (a) India EB2, and (b) adjustment of status
applications pending with the USICS. Note that there is an almost 50%
reduction in the total number of petitions in the nearly year and a half
between May, 2009 and October, 2010.
When we look at the numbers of visas actually issued, we see the following
India EB2 adjustments and consular visas:
2008 14,806
2009 10,106
According to the Department of State, Visa Office, there the known demand
for India EB2 visa numbers as of November 15, 2010 was 23,000 – down from
30,600 in mid-August, 2010. This current known demand number – 23,000 – is
less than the actual number of annual visa issuances for India EB2 for the
past two years: 24,912.
So, if demand is being reduced significantly, why has the Visa Office
predicted that the India EB2 cutoff date will not likely move forward until
next summer? The answer lies in the large numbers of India EB3 cases that
have been and continue to be upgraded to EB2 classification. If there were
no upgrade cases, the India EB2 cutoff date would likely move forward to the
point where it would be somewhere in late 2010 or early 2011 by mid-2012.
A significant number of current India EB3 cases have either been upgraded to
EB2, or are actively in the process of being upgraded. When an applicant
with an existing EB3 priority date obtains a new EB2 approval, the applicant
is entitled to use his or her old EB3 priority date for their new EB2
petition. This puts them on the EB2 waiting list ahead of people who filed
EB2 petitions later. It is the surge of EB3 upgrades that appears to be the
reason why the India EB2 cutoff date is not moving forward right now.
The good news is that this surge is temporary. The upgrade process has been
going on for about a year and a half. It is probably safe to say that those
who planned to upgrade have either done so already or are actively in the
process of doing so now. As a practical matter, the surge is a temporary
phenomenon that will likely come to an end soon. There are only a finite
number of people who are eligible to upgrade and most of them have already
acted.
When the surge subsides, we can expect to see the India EB2 cutoff date
begin to advance again. When it does, we expect it to advance rapidly.
In the next issue, we will discuss why there is also reason for limited
optimism for India EB3 applicants.
Copyright © 2010 Global Immigration Partners, Inc. - All Rights
Reserved | g**e
发帖数: 6127 | 2 老印就是喜欢放卫星
hope
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 摘要：
: 1.老印EB3->EB2的port没有想象中那么恐怖。理由是有能力升级的人早就这么做了。
: 2.EB2I的排期马上就能快速前进，因为对比去年5月EB2I的库存已经消除了2万多。
: http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-12/how-bad-india-eb2-backlog.html
: How bad is the India EB2 backlog?
: You may be pleasantly surprised.
: The conventional Internet wisdom is that the India EB2 backlog is going to
: stretch out for many, many years and that applicants should abandon all hope
: . This is nonsense. The reality of the situation is that there is
: significant cause for optimism. This conclusion is based on an analysis of
| s*****l
发帖数: 321 | 3 结论：
用手擦屁股使人更乐观
hope
【在 S*******r 的大作中提到】
: 摘要：
: 1.老印EB3->EB2的port没有想象中那么恐怖。理由是有能力升级的人早就这么做了。
: 2.EB2I的排期马上就能快速前进，因为对比去年5月EB2I的库存已经消除了2万多。
: http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2010-12/how-bad-india-eb2-backlog.html
: How bad is the India EB2 backlog?
: You may be pleasantly surprised.
: The conventional Internet wisdom is that the India EB2 backlog is going to
: stretch out for many, many years and that applicants should abandon all hope
: . This is nonsense. The reality of the situation is that there is
: significant cause for optimism. This conclusion is based on an analysis of
| S*******r
发帖数: 11017 | 4 还有老印跟贴说EB3转EB2的CASE成功后，EB3那个CASE还保留在CIS的档案中。所以我们
看到了四五万EB3库存其实也没那么恐怖。
有时候觉得老印的天真乐观真令人佩服。 |
|
