F*F
发帖数: 825 | 1 后面经济不好，h1都用不完，搞绿卡的也不多把
会不会一下子一个月前进好几个月？ |
A****S
发帖数: 978 | 2 No, they will not jump this time.
maybe it will push 2-3 months after 2007.07.
【在 F*F 的大作中提到】
: 后面经济不好，h1都用不完，搞绿卡的也不多把
: 会不会一下子一个月前进好几个月？
|
w********u
发帖数: 832 | |
s**u
发帖数: 9035 | 4 According to DOS report of Sept 8, 2010, after summer 2007, there are still
1000 Chinese EB2 /month are waiting in line, every year 11000-12000 from
2007 to 2010.
So many people, how can USCIS process these quickly? |
s**u
发帖数: 9035 | 5 I don't think PD of EB2 will move quickly if you really read and understand
DOS report of Sept 8, 2010.
After 2007, Chinese EB2 NIW are increasing dramatically.
Every year, there are more than 20000 J1 and H1B visa holders come from
China. I really don"t know how many of them will be back to China, how many
of them will apply for EB and hope to stay in USA. |
d****y
发帖数: 1671 | 6 link?
still
【在 s**u 的大作中提到】
: According to DOS report of Sept 8, 2010, after summer 2007, there are still
: 1000 Chinese EB2 /month are waiting in line, every year 11000-12000 from
: 2007 to 2010.
: So many people, how can USCIS process these quickly?
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 7 2008+2009的perm总共只有4000多，就算eb3大潮再过2年转eb2，也就最多加2000人，所
以只要过了2007，eb2的所有积压case1年内就可以被秒掉，但问题是2007没个4、5年过
不去啊！ |
h***s
发帖数: 35 | 8 那里看到的只有4000?
【在 d**u 的大作中提到】
: 2008+2009的perm总共只有4000多，就算eb3大潮再过2年转eb2，也就最多加2000人，所
: 以只要过了2007，eb2的所有积压case1年内就可以被秒掉，但问题是2007没个4、5年过
: 不去啊！
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 9 http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
下载mdb，在access里写个sql查询，结果是2008中国人的perm数量是3000多，2009只有
1000多，
今年数据还没公布，不会多到哪去。
【在 h***s 的大作中提到】
: 那里看到的只有4000?
|
h*****p
发帖数: 2638 | 10 07大潮好像也就多3个月的名额而已
【在 d**u 的大作中提到】
: 2008+2009的perm总共只有4000多，就算eb3大潮再过2年转eb2，也就最多加2000人，所
: 以只要过了2007，eb2的所有积压case1年内就可以被秒掉，但问题是2007没个4、5年过
: 不去啊！
|
|
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 11 怎么算出3个月的？！
07大潮现在呆在inventory里的eb2有15000人，去年一年才批掉3000多人，照这个速度
就要5年才能
清掉，当然今年速度看上去快了一点，算就spillover多抢了点，5000/年吧，也要3年。
【在 h*****p 的大作中提到】
: 07大潮好像也就多3个月的名额而已
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H**E
发帖数: 620 | 12 is this true ?? after 07/7 EB2C still 1000/month ?
if it's true then we are hopeless. I thought after 07/7 EB2IC will be
much less due to recession....
still
【在 s**u 的大作中提到】
: According to DOS report of Sept 8, 2010, after summer 2007, there are still
: 1000 Chinese EB2 /month are waiting in line, every year 11000-12000 from
: 2007 to 2010.
: So many people, how can USCIS process these quickly?
|
h***s
发帖数: 35 | 13 一个PERM要带很多人的
此外,那里只是citiziship是china阿,其他国家的中国人没有包括
我统计过按照1.5倍的话,大概是9000人从2007.7到2009.12
【在 d**u 的大作中提到】
: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx
: 下载mdb，在access里写个sql查询，结果是2008中国人的perm数量是3000多，2009只有
: 1000多，
: 今年数据还没公布，不会多到哪去。
|
H**E
发帖数: 620 | 14 you didn't count EB2 NIW cases..
【在 d**u 的大作中提到】
: 2008+2009的perm总共只有4000多，就算eb3大潮再过2年转eb2，也就最多加2000人，所
: 以只要过了2007，eb2的所有积压case1年内就可以被秒掉，但问题是2007没个4、5年过
: 不去啊！
|
d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 15 没错，perm最后会带家属，但是这4000是eb2+eb3的数据，单独算eb2+家属的话，我估
计4、5000人
【在 h***s 的大作中提到】
: 一个PERM要带很多人的
: 此外,那里只是citiziship是china阿,其他国家的中国人没有包括
: 我统计过按照1.5倍的话,大概是9000人从2007.7到2009.12
|
I******6
发帖数: 500 | 16 会跃进的。 使劲 LEAP, LEAP. AND LEAP |
s**u
发帖数: 9035 | 17 I don't think any leap will happen.
You see 5550(PD 2006), PD 2007 to PD 2010 each year 11200.
These huge amount of EBC2 are waiting in line.
You have to face the fact. You have to think about it. |
H**E
发帖数: 620 | 18 the number of 11200 is the CUMULATIVE demand number BEFORE 1/1/2008...
it's not the number for EACH year..
【在 s**u 的大作中提到】
: I don't think any leap will happen.
: You see 5550(PD 2006), PD 2007 to PD 2010 each year 11200.
: These huge amount of EBC2 are waiting in line.
: You have to face the fact. You have to think about it.
|
s**u
发帖数: 9035 | 19 No, The demand number 11200 is only 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 for CE2
The demand number 11300 is only 1/1/2009 to 12/31/2009 for CE2
The meaning is very clear. |
b**e
发帖数: 1476 | 20 this seems not correct
demand data for EB2C in CY2009 should not be available
therefore the number should be cumulative data
look at the page 2 in the pdf file below
"cumulative" is explicit.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
【在 s**u 的大作中提到】
: No, The demand number 11200 is only 1/1/2007 to 12/31/2007 for CE2
: The demand number 11300 is only 1/1/2009 to 12/31/2009 for CE2
: The meaning is very clear.
|
|
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T****k
发帖数: 1374 | 21 问题是只要中国人自己的名额不够，哪怕只多数百人，也得和印度分SO，中国自己的排
期前进的越快，就越发拿不到SO，而自己又不能current，真是被印度拖死。
只有一次性解决所有积压才是王道。从此中国可以永远current了。
08，09，10，甚至将来11的EB2C，要行动起来！ |
s**u
发帖数: 9035 | 22 You don't know how many Chinese people file I-140 in 2009, it doesn't mean
DOS don't know. DOS knows much more than what you know.
DOS can release 2009 data so we can estimate what will happen. This is the
reason why DOS releases this data on 8th every month. |
b**e
发帖数: 1476 | 23 DOS may know the number, but it is not what you show
the numbers like 5500 or 11300 are based on the numbers of submitted I485
forms.
For the I140 number, maybe DOS knows, but nobody here knows.
You cannot estimate the I140 number based on inventory data.
【在 s**u 的大作中提到】
: You don't know how many Chinese people file I-140 in 2009, it doesn't mean
: DOS don't know. DOS knows much more than what you know.
: DOS can release 2009 data so we can estimate what will happen. This is the
: reason why DOS releases this data on 8th every month.
|
M*S
发帖数: 459 | 24 It is "cumulative" in my understanding. But don't forget the cumulative
data for 2007 only includes first 7 months of 2007. So based on the data
from pdf file, it means the demand number for first 7 months of 2007 is 11,
200 - 5,500 = 5,700. If you include the rest of year 2007 plus those whose
PD is before 07/07 but didn't get a chance to submit their I-485 at that
time, the reasonable estimate would be 1000/month for 2007 as shum pointed
out. I bet it could be the same thing for 2008. As for
【在 b**e 的大作中提到】
: this seems not correct
: demand data for EB2C in CY2009 should not be available
: therefore the number should be cumulative data
: look at the page 2 in the pdf file below
: "cumulative" is explicit.
: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
|
b**e
发帖数: 1476 | 25 I agree that the data for first 7 months of 2007 is 5,700, and we should
include those whose PD is before 07/07 but didn't get a chance to submit
their I-485 at that time. However, I do not think that could make CY2007
number be as high as 1000.
I guess the number for 2007 should be similar to 2006, cuz I cannot find a
reason which made a huge difference between the numbers of PD2006 and PD2007
. The only difference is the NIW people whose submitted 485 in 07/2007,
which may be around 1500.
【在 M*S 的大作中提到】
: It is "cumulative" in my understanding. But don't forget the cumulative
: data for 2007 only includes first 7 months of 2007. So based on the data
: from pdf file, it means the demand number for first 7 months of 2007 is 11,
: 200 - 5,500 = 5,700. If you include the rest of year 2007 plus those whose
: PD is before 07/07 but didn't get a chance to submit their I-485 at that
: time, the reasonable estimate would be 1000/month for 2007 as shum pointed
: out. I bet it could be the same thing for 2008. As for
|
M*S
发帖数: 459 | 26 Actually average number each month for 2006 is about 700, which is not too
different than 1000. Also you need to consider there is a few whose PD is
2006 have already been approved even in 2008. A friend of mine whose PD is
early 2006 got his GC in 2008. 1000 might be too high but 800~900 would be
very possible.
PD2007
【在 b**e 的大作中提到】
: I agree that the data for first 7 months of 2007 is 5,700, and we should
: include those whose PD is before 07/07 but didn't get a chance to submit
: their I-485 at that time. However, I do not think that could make CY2007
: number be as high as 1000.
: I guess the number for 2007 should be similar to 2006, cuz I cannot find a
: reason which made a huge difference between the numbers of PD2006 and PD2007
: . The only difference is the NIW people whose submitted 485 in 07/2007,
: which may be around 1500.
|
s**u
发帖数: 9035 | 27 If my understanding "11200 (before 1/1/2008)" and "11300 (before 1/1/2010)"
is not correct, Is there any specialist or lawyer to explain these 2 numbers
, we only want to know the fact.
We can learn something from specialists.
【在 F*F 的大作中提到】
: 后面经济不好，h1都用不完，搞绿卡的也不多把
: 会不会一下子一个月前进好几个月？
|
a*****1
发帖数: 595 | 28 要行动起来！
LOL
【在 T****k 的大作中提到】
: 问题是只要中国人自己的名额不够，哪怕只多数百人，也得和印度分SO，中国自己的排
: 期前进的越快，就越发拿不到SO，而自己又不能current，真是被印度拖死。
: 只有一次性解决所有积压才是王道。从此中国可以永远current了。
: 08，09，10，甚至将来11的EB2C，要行动起来！
|
