e********3
发帖数: 18578 | 1 http://www.thedreamshake.com/2014/1/3/5249000/houston-rockets-j
Did you know Jeremy Lin leads the league in many offensive metrics while
being near last in others? We try to lift the veil clouding the opinions of
the Rockets' point guard as we go searching for Jeremy Lin.
There are two things that I really dislike, one is writing introductions for
anything and the other is irrational reactions to NBA players. Obviously
this isn't going to be a whole post about why I don't like writing
introductions, I probably wouldn't even make it past the intro anyway, let
alone Patrick. Rather, I'm going to dive into dangerous waters and paint the
picture of who exactly Jeremy Lin is as a basketball player. I will
highlight the areas in which Jeremy Lin excels and struggles and compare him
to other starting point guards in the NBA in an attempt to figure out how
effective of a basketball player he really is.
Now, I am aware that Lin has his fair share of haters and fanatics and that
there's nothing that myself or anyone else can do to change their view of
him. I'm not even going to waste my time. My goal in this post isn't to
persuade you on whether or not Jeremy Lin is a good/bad player, but to
create a clear picture of who Jeremy Lin is as a player and for you (the
reader) to be able to create informed thoughts based on the information that
's provided. With that said, join me as I go searching for Jeremy Lin (I
apologize for my awful play on a great movie title, I'm also no Bo Burnham
so cheesy segues are my only option for moving posts along).
Looking into Lin's performance there seems to be 2 clear trends in his play.
The first being that the areas which are his strengths, he really excels in
. He excels in these areas so much that he's among or better than the NBA's
elite point guards. The other trend being the opposite, the areas in which
Lin is weak, he really struggles. In fact, in some categories he's near the
bottom of NBA point guard, but I'm a positive person, so let's start with
his strengths.
Scoring
Jeremy Lin plays point guard on the attack, he doesn't let touches go to
waste without looking to score on them. His biggest strengths in his scoring
comes off: catching and shooting the ball, driving and finishing at the rim
, executing the pick and roll, and being in attack-mode on almost every
touch.
Before we dive into those specific categories, I want to look at his overall
scoring per half court touch and compare them to the NBA's elite point
guards. Jeremy Lin (at the time of writing this, and this goes for all stats
in this post) is averaging .29 points per half court touch. That might seem
low and it is for the overall NBA, but for point guards this is near the
top.
For example, Nate Robinson leads all point guards with .32 points per half
court touch and the only starting point guards above him are Curry (.31),
Westbrook (.3), and Lillard (.3). In comparison, Jeremy Lin's mark is
significantly higher than point guards such as Parker (.26), Lawson (.25),
Paul (.23), Wall (.23), Holiday (.23), and Deron Williams (.19).
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It's no secret Lin likes to attack when the ball is in his hands and these
stats prove that he's very good at it. Let's find out how he gets the
majority of these points.
Catch and Shoot Situations
If I were to ask somebody "how good of a shooter is Jeremy Lin?", they would
most likely respond with that he's average or below average. While saying
that he's average overall is pretty accurate, if I were to change that
question to "How good of a catch and shoot shooter is Jeremy Lin?" they
would most likely respond with the same answer. To be blunt about it, they
would be very wrong.
Jeremy Lin has an eFG% of 67.7% (2nd among starting point guards, 9th among
all point guards, and 24th in the NBA) on catch and shoot shots. If you're
wondering who the starting point guard above Lin is, it's Jose Calderon (no
surprise there). To further Jeremy Lin's strengths as a spot up shooter, he
shoots 46.4% on catch and shoot 3s (37th in NBA, 4th among starting point
guards, and 12th among all point guards). This isn't due to lack of volume
either, Lin shoots 2.4 3s a game off catch and shoot opportunities, more
than players like Lawson and Kemba Walker and similar to players like
Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving.
I hope this was able to get rid of all the memories of Lin airballs which
have a better chance of hitting a fan than the rim and replace them with
acceptance that a Lin catch and shoot shot is one of the best shots the
Rockets can create in their offense. Hopefully he can keep this mark high
during the season because it adds a new dimension to his game which lets him
be effective off the ball when Harden, Beverley, and Brooks are acting as
the primary ball handler.
Driving
This is Lin's bread and butter. When Lin is attacking the basket he is at
his best. Whether it comes via the pick and roll or isolations, when Jeremy
gets to the rim there's no stopping him. His ability to finish through
contact and make acrobatic layups and reverses separates him from the pack
in finishing at the rim. Overall, Jeremy Lin shoots 73%(!) inside the
restricted area which is ridiculously high.
That's a better mark than most big men (including Dwight Howard)! On overall
drives, Lin shoots 57.1% (55th in the league, 2nd among all point guards).
Read this paragraph again. Done? Read it one more time. Finishing at the rim
and driving ability is an elite commodity in the NBA and Jeremy Lin
embraces and thrives at it.
To expand this a little bit more, Lin is 16th overall in personal points on
drives a game, 9th overall in team points on drives a game, and 12th in
points per 48 via drives. Because point totals aren't the most reliable
metrics, I've calculated the points per drive for Lin, which came out to be
about .6. To put this in perspective, Chris Paul, Jeff Teague, John Wall, Ty
Lawson, Stephen Curry, and Russell Westbrook are some of the point guards
who are below Lin in player points per drive.
Also, the points per drive accounts for turnovers, so if Lin were able to
cut down his turnovers that number would increase. Given that, these numbers
are as good as they come for a player who isn't even in the top 3 on his
team. Look for Lin to attack the basket even more over this season when
Beverley comes back and he's leading the bench unit instead of playing with
the starters.
Pick and Roll play
Lin is most at home on the basketball court when he is able to execute the
pick and roll. We've seen him dominate when paired up with Tyson Chandler in
New York, he did well with Omer Asik last year, and this year he has been
very good with Terrence Jones and Dwight Howard as his roll partners.
Synergy Sports tracks all pick and roll possessions and Jeremy Lin ranks
33rd in the league in Points Per Play with .86. Lin also shoots 50% on pick
and rolls and is able to score on 45.8% of pick and rolls he's involved in.
He's a north and south guy, when he uses the pick, he goes straight towards
the basket attacking it. This leads to many points, but also a large amount
of turnovers.
LIN TURNS THE BALL OVER ON AN ALARMING 26.5% OF PICK AND ROLLS AND WHEN HE
DOESN'T ATTACK AND SETTLES FOR A THREE, HE HAS YET TO MAKE ONE.
Given those issues with his pick and roll play, it is still very impressive
that he ranks 33rd in the league. Expect his pick and roll play to improve
even more over the season and for him to go back to being an elite pick and
roll player like he was the past 2 seasons.
Defending the rim
Defense as a strength for Jeremy Lin? Allen must have gone crazy. Now, I'm
aware of Lin's defensive woes, he gets lost on defense, fouls a little bit
too much, doesn't get enough steals, and seems out of it at times. However
there is one very important area which he is great at. Keeping his matchup
from finishing at the rim.
It's not a secret that shots inside the restricted area are some of the most
efficient shots in the NBA and Lin does a great job of keeping his matchups
from finishing them. He holds his opponents to 43.8% shooting which leads
all the NBA's starting point guards. "But Allen, that's because Dwight is
always down low" While that is correct, let's look at George Hill who has
probably the best paint defender manning the paint behind him in Roy Hibbert
. He's allowing his matchups to shoot 56.3% at the rim against him this
season. For another example, Brandon Jennings who has 3 capable defenders in
the front court starting beside him allows his opponents to shoot 58.6%.
It also needs to be noted that since returning from injury, Jeremy has been
on a tear defensively. This could mean either that his numbers will improve
because he's improving his defense or he's just on a streak and will regress
towards the mean as the season goes on. If I were to make a bet, I would
put money on him regressing to the mean.
What we've learned
Together we have dived into Jeremy's overall scoring, his spot up shooting,
driving, pick and roll play, and defense. We've learned that he's among the
point guard leaders in points per touch and defense while being among the
league's leaders in driving and catch and shooting. That's a large amount of
playing basketball and for Jeremy to not only excel, but league the league
in some of those categories is a huge asset to a team.
I would've never thought the guy who people are so quick to label "overpaid"
would be among the NBA's elite in many of the most important aspects of
basketball. My perception of Jeremy's play has definitely changed. I thought
he was nothing more than a slightly above average point guard, but now I
view him as one of the most effective and efficient point guards in the
league for what he does. However, Jeremy isn't perfect (no matter what his
fans tell you) and still has some major aspects of his game to work on. Let'
s flip the table and look at the other side of Jeremy Lin.
Pull-up Shooting
We’ve established that Lin has been one of the best catch and shoot players
in the league this season, but what about shooting off the dribble? Lin
attempts 2.5 pull up shots a game and only manages to convert hit 26.2% of
them. That’s slightly above making 1/4th of his shots which is atrocious
for any guard. Looking at his shot selection, exactly 1 of those shots comes
from deep a game where Lin only manages to make 16.7%(!). Only 2 players in
the whole NBA who shoot at least 1 pull-up three a game post lower
percentages than Jeremy. Those players are Kobe Bryant and J.R. Smith. Yikes.
The problem lies in his shot selection, watching Lin’s tape over the season
a majority of his pull up shots come late in the shotclock or are pullup
fadeaways from midrange which are the shots the Rockets’ offense
specifically want to get rid of. When you’re only managing to have an eFG%
of 29.5% (only 2 starting point guards who are lower are Mario Chalmers and
Patrick Beverley) your shot selection needs to come into question. In Lin’s
case, he could do away with at least 1 pull-up midrange shot a game. It
might not seem like much, but every point matters in the NBA and if you are
able to trade a 25% shot for a 50% shot, you take it every time. That’s
what Lin needs to do, instead of pulling up so much, he should focus on
driving and catch and shooting.
Passing
The Rockets use a pick and roll oriented offense which keeps the court wide
open by playing 3-4 capable shooters at all times. It's a point guard's
dream. With the pace and style that the Rockets play, Lin should be racking
assists like it's no problem. He doesn't. Lin is only 51st in the league in
assists per game with 4.2. IF LIN WANTS TO MAKE THE LEAP WE’VE ALL BEEN
WAITING FOR HIM TO MAKE, HE NEEDS TO FOCUS ON HIS DISTRIBUTING BECAUSE RIGHT
NOW HE’S NOT GETTING IT DONE.
There are 36 point guards ahead of him. 36! He's 58th in the league in
assist opportunities a game, 48th in team points from his assists, and 76th
in team points from assists per 48 min. For point guards who get at least 29
minutes a game, he ranks near last in every one of those metrics.
An interesting metric which has been created is "Passing Rating" from
82games.com. It takes into account turnovers, bad passes, and the type of
assists. Lin posts a rating of 6.2, which is lower than every starting point
guard except for George Hill, Brandon Knight, Patrick Beverley, and Kirk
Hinrich. If Lin wants to make the leap we’ve all been waiting for him to
make, he needs to focus on his distributing because right now he’s not
getting it done. Going back to playing with the second unit could improve
his passing since it’s made up of mostly shooters and Lin will have the
ball in his hands for a large part of the time.
Turnovers
You were wondering when I was going to bring this up huh? I saved it for
last because it's where Lin struggles the most. He turns the ball over 2.8
times a game according to ESPN which puts him at 25th in the league.
Interestingly every player above Jeremy is either the first or second option
on their offense and carries a large load while it's debatable that Lin is
even the 3rd option on the Rockets.
Lin’s Ast/TO numbers are also very bad. His ratio is sitting currently at 1
.47, making Derrick Rose the only point guard to post a lower ratio who
turns the ball over at least 2 times a game. Turnovers play a large role in
teams losing games because they take a shot attempt away from your team and
give one to your opponents. Too many of them and games can be impossible to
win, and let’s be honest, there have been games where Lin’s massive amount
of turnovers led to Rockets’ losses. I think that if the Rockets and Lin
want to make the leap to the next level, they need to cut down on turnovers
and it starts with Lin.
What we’ve learned
Despite Jeremy’s strengths, Jeremy also struggles greatly in pull-up
shooting, passing, and in taking care of the ball. Jeremy was a star in New
York, but has regressed to a slightly above average point guard in his time
with Houston. This is mostly due to his turnovers and lack of being able to
distribute the ball, where he ranks near last in the important metrics for
point guards. For Jeremy to go back to playing dynamic basketball like he
has before, he’ll have to cut down his turnovers, work on creating more
points off his passing, and work on his shot selection by cutting down the
amount of pull-up shots he takes a game. If not, he’s just a really
expensive role player/trade chip which I’m not okay with. He can be better.
Conclusion
I hope your view of Lin has changed some after reading this post, whether it
be you think he’s worse or better than you did before. What I got out of
this is that Jeremy Lin is a player who excels and is one of the most
efficient point guards in multiple important aspects of basketball, but his
glaring weaknesses almost make his strengths go to waste. Over this season I
’m going to be paying a lot of attention to Lin to see whether he makes the
jump to the next level of point guard or falls of the cliff he’s standing
on. It all depends on what gives first, his strengths or his weaknesses.
Now, I have to ask, has this post changed your view of who Jeremy Lin is and
how did it change it? How do you think the rest of Lin’s season is going
to go? And lastly, what’s your final evaluation of Lin after reading this?
Thank you for taking the time to read all of this, you can tweet me @Allen_
OJ (formerly known as OJ_ATM), and have a great new year! | A****a
发帖数: 2497 | | s*********h
发帖数: 6288 | 3 The Rockets use a pick and roll oriented offense which ……
我笑了 | t*****9
发帖数: 569 | 4 老美就是虚伪，想表达自己的观点时候总是故作公正
【在 s*********h 的大作中提到】
: The Rockets use a pick and roll oriented offense which ……
: 我笑了
| p***e
发帖数: 146 | 5 看完这篇还是不明白为什么脑残教练不让其先发。lin的一些弱项还是比贝大神强。
【在 s*********h 的大作中提到】
: The Rockets use a pick and roll oriented offense which ……
: 我笑了
| c**t
发帖数: 9197 | 6 同意。
【在 t*****9 的大作中提到】
: 老美就是虚伪，想表达自己的观点时候总是故作公正
| M****o
发帖数: 4860 | 7 为啥negative的都highlight了？高端黑？
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【在 e********3 的大作中提到】
: http://www.thedreamshake.com/2014/1/3/5249000/houston-rockets-j
: Did you know Jeremy Lin leads the league in many offensive metrics while
: being near last in others? We try to lift the veil clouding the opinions of
: the Rockets' point guard as we go searching for Jeremy Lin.
: There are two things that I really dislike, one is writing introductions for
: anything and the other is irrational reactions to NBA players. Obviously
: this isn't going to be a whole post about why I don't like writing
: introductions, I probably wouldn't even make it past the intro anyway, let
: alone Patrick. Rather, I'm going to dive into dangerous waters and paint the
: picture of who exactly Jeremy Lin is as a basketball player. I will
| g*****5
发帖数: 737 | 8 The conclusion is clear, Jump wont happen, and the stats were collected
during Mcfail pushing Lin down to the cliff.
Again, if a team donot favor on a player and ignore to use the best of
player, the stats will be uglier for sure.
Again, the team is kicking out Lin sooner, not later. I am waiting for it.
This is only conclusion from me. | g*****5
发帖数: 737 | 9 The conclusion is clear, Jump wont happen, and the stats were collected
during Mcfail pushing Lin down to the cliff.
Again, if a team donot favor on a player and ignore to use the best of
player, the stats will be uglier for sure.
Again, the team is kicking out Lin sooner, not later. I am waiting for it.
This is only conclusion from me. |
|
