d*****s
发帖数: 5610 | 1 http://ultimateknicks.com/forum/topic.asp?t=40966
基本论点就是knicks的PG位置太差，给一个稍微好一点的控卫，就能提高很多，lakers
也类似，不过Lakers用的是3角进攻，还不是那么适合lin。MDA用的是随便让你发挥，
打的好当然不错，打的不好也不会让你下来，好处是可以多打，坏处是lin的rookie坏
习惯会继续下来，对未来没有好处。
Along similar lines, Linsanity wouldn't have had anywhere near the same
impact in Golden State or Houston, his two former clubs -- replacing Stephen
Curry (PER 21.57) or Kyle Lowry (19.71) with Lin would likely have
generated only a small change in said team's fortunes. Even using him as a
backup would have been a far lesser improvement than the one the Knicks saw,
as Golden State (with Nate Robinson) and Houston (with Goran Dragic)
already get good production from those spots.
Which takes us to today's project: The BAD rating.
BAD stands for Below Average Dependency, and what it shows is how much non-
production teams are getting from replacement-level or worse players.
A high score in BAD represents both a problem and an opportunity. The
problem is that a lot of crappy players are dragging the team down, but the
opportunity is that replacing them with just an average player will cause
the team to dramatically improve -- perhaps not as much as Lin improved the
Knicks, but enough to cause a wave.
To calculate BAD, I started with every player with a PER below 12. I
subtracted his PER from 12, and multiplied by his minutes played. For
example, a player with a PER of 10 and 200 minutes played would add 400 BAD
points for his team.
I then summed the BAD rating across all the players on the team, so that all
30 teams had a rating. And what it found, not surprisingly, was that the
Knicks were among the teams most ripe for a Linsanity situation: They're
seventh in the league in BAD overall, and their point guard position rated
as the second-worst of any individual spot.
BAD: Worst by position
Team Position Players BAD
Nets Small forward Stevenson, James, Sha. Williams, Owens 7,856
Knicks Point guard Bibby, Shumpert, Douglas 5,794
Kings Small forward Salmons, Garcia, Outlaw 5,663
Lakers Point guard Fisher, Blake, Goudelouck, Morris 4,925
Timberwolves Small forward Johnson, Webster 4,749
Looking at the chart, you can see that New York point guard was one of the
league's greatest turnaround opportunities. Plugging in a decent player
would improve the Knicks greatly, and plugging in a star would more than
offset the loss of Carmelo Anthony, and that is what has happened.
Lin could have had a similarly outsized impact with the Lakers, but
otherwise the weak links around the league are at small forward. As with the
Knicks' point guard situation, this speaks both to a real problem for the
Nets, Wolves and Kings and to potential for sudden improvement should they
find even halfway-decent solutions. |
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