r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 1 https://www.reddit.com/r/SelfDrivingCars/comments/n6nsmt/elons_tweet_does_
not_match_engineering_reality/
Let's roll the tapes with early 2021 prediction updates:
December 2015: "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we
will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."
Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years
http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/
January 2016: "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land &
not blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY"
Elon Musk on Twitter
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/686279251293777920
June 2016: "I really consider autonomous driving a solved problem, I think
we are less than two years away from complete autonomy, safer than humans,
but regulations should take at least another year," Musk said.
Two years until self-driving cars are on the road – is Elon Musk
right?
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jun/02/self-driving-car-
elon-
musk-tech-predictions-tesla-google
Jan 23rd 2017: At what point will "Full Self-Driving Capability" features
noticeably depart from? Elon: "3 months maybe, 6 months definitely"
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/823727035088416768
March 2017: "I think that [you will be able to fall asleep in a tesla] is
about two years" -
Transcript of "The future we're building -- and boring"
https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_building_and_boring/
transcript?language=en
May 7 2017: Update on the coast to coast autopilot demo?
Still on for end of year. Just software limited. Any Tesla car with HW2 (all
cars built since Oct last year) will be able to do this.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280
March 2018: "I think probably by end of next year [end of 2019] self-driving
will encompass essentially all modes of driving and be at least 100% to 200
% safer than a person."
SXSW 2018
Nov 15, 2018: "Probably technically be able to [self deliver Teslas to
customers doors] in about a year then its up to the regulators"
Elon Musk on Twitter
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1063123659290595328
Jan 30 2019: "We need to be at 99.9999..% We need to be extremely reliable.
When do we think it is safe for FSD, probably towards the end of this year
then its up to the regulators when they will decide to approve that."
Tesla Q4 Earnings Call
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qt5PFzRy24Y
Feb 19 2019: "We will be feature complete full self driving this year. The
car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the
way to your destination without an intervention this year. I'm certain of
that. That is not a question mark. It will be essentially safe to fall
asleep and wake up at their destination towards the end of next year"
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast
https://ark-invest.com/research/podcast/elon-musk-podcast
April 12th 2019 : "I think it will require detecting hands on wheel for at
least six months.... I think this was all really going to be swept, I mean,
the system is improving so much, so fast, that this is going to be a moot
point very soon. No, in fact, I think it will become very, very quickly,
maybe and towards the end this year, but I say, I'd be shocked if not next
year, at the latest that having the person, having human intervene will
decrease safety. DECREASE! (in response to human supervision and adding
driver monitoring system)"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEv99vxKjVI&feature=emb_title
April 22nd 2019: "We expect to be feature complete in self driving this year
, and we expect to be confident enough from our standpoint to say that we
think people do not need to touch the wheel and can look out the window
sometime probably around the second quarter of next year."
April 22nd 2019: "We expect to have the first operating robot taxi next year
with no one in them! One million robot taxis!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucp0TTmvqOE
May 9th 2019: "We could have gamed an LA/NY Autopilot journey last year, but
when we do it this year, everyone with Tesla Full Self-Driving will be able
to do it too"
April 12th 2020: "Robotaxis release/deployment... Functionality still
looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1249210220200550405
April 29th 2020: "we could see robotaxis in operation with the network fleet
next year, not in all markets but in some."
July 08, 2020: “I’m extremely confident that level five or essentially
complete autonomy will happen, and I think, will happen very quickly, I
think at Tesla, I feel like we are very close to level five autonomy. I
think—I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for
level five autonomy complete this year, There are no fundamental challenges
remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of
solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBysm4_OceI
Dec 1, 2020: “I am extremely confident of achieving full autonomy and
releasing it to the Tesla customer base next year. But I think at least some
jurisdictions are going to allow full self-driving next year.”
Axel Springer Award
December 5th 2020: "I'm extremely confident that Tesla will have level five
next year, extremely confident, 100%"
https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-interview-axel-springer-
tesla-
accelerate-advent-of-sustainable-energy
Jan 1, 2021: "Tesla Full Self-Driving will work at a safety level well above
that of the average driver this year, of that I am confident. Can’t speak
for regulators though."
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1345208391958888448
Jan 27, 2021: "at least 100% safer than a human driver"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl7tkRqOt7I | r**m
发帖数: 1825 | 2 Elon lies, or Elon doesn't understand machine learning. Either way no reason
to listen to anything he says about self driving. | c*****r
发帖数: 1491 | | i*****9
发帖数: 3157 | 4 他说的是可以在火星自动驾驶的车，和地球人关系不大。
reason to listen to anything he says about self driving.
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: Elon lies, or Elon doesn't understand machine learning. Either way no reason
: to listen to anything he says about self driving.
| m****a
发帖数: 2593 | | f*****h
发帖数: 4489 | 6 这哥们自诩是个科学家 其实已经从早年的憧憬青年变成了如今油嘴滑舌的商人
reason
【在 r**m 的大作中提到】
: Elon lies, or Elon doesn't understand machine learning. Either way no reason
: to listen to anything he says about self driving.
| G*u
发帖数: 97 | 7 你们有啥资格贬低马斯克？
【在 f*****h 的大作中提到】
: 这哥们自诩是个科学家 其实已经从早年的憧憬青年变成了如今油嘴滑舌的商人
:
: reason
| g***n
发帖数: 14250 | 8 物理懂得比马斯克多
【在 G*u 的大作中提到】
: 你们有啥资格贬低马斯克？
| c*****r
发帖数: 1491 | 9
数数it背了多少人命了
有多少脑残言论误导傻粉
有多少死了的是因为it的故意误导
这人人品极差
看看it对疫情的评论
看看it对FSD的评论
it脑子里就是pump股票
做的在成功也是人渣一个
现在的特斯拉根本就不是it的以前
你查查历史就知道
看看真正的founder为什么走了
但是没办法
现在就是流氓恶棍当道
【在 G*u 的大作中提到】
: 你们有啥资格贬低马斯克？
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