w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 1 一个台湾人眼中的世界金融zt
来源: alafaya 于 2015-06-26 20:31:53 [档案] [旧帖] [给我悄悄话] 本文已被阅读
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一个台湾人眼中的世界金融
介绍王孟源先生
长於台南，清大学物理系毕业，哈佛大学物理硕士及博士，后转往金融界，历任巴黎银
行研究主管，瑞士联合银行经理，瑞士信托经理，现已退休。业余兴趣在於研究经济，
军事和历史。
经本人同意后在本贴吧转载他的博客文章，他本人博客地址：http://newsblog.chinatimes.com/duduong
我在台南乡下长大，上的一直是公立学校，读的也只是当时的标准课本：内容不多，全
凭死记。所以除了我自己喜欢的诗词古文和数学物理之外，其他的科目十分枯燥无味，
我只是纯为考试而读书，对历史的态度也是如此。尤其台湾的历史课本编写人水准极差
，不但要为政治服务，即使是与当权政体无关的事，也是只写表面、敷衍了事。一直到
在清华的第二年，修了《中国历史》，教授提到了陈寅恪的关... 阅读全帖 |
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O*******i
发帖数: 335 | 2 发信人: flavonoid (flavonoid), 信区: Biology
标 题: 大家如何克服碰老鼠的时候恐惧感
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 27 23:26:00 2015, 美东)
大家都是怎么克服的呢？我都没有开膛破肚，只是给老鼠分分笼子，剪剪尾巴耳朵做
genotyping. 学校抓老鼠的时候用的是白老鼠，但是我自己的是黑老鼠，根本抓不住，
每次剪尾巴打耳洞的时候只能先麻醉了。但是他们醒来的好快，导致我打耳洞的时候还
是心惊肉跳，有时候老鼠混身一颤，我也跟着出一身冷汗。我原本以为坚持训练自己，
就会慢慢适应，但是已经一年多了，我也处理了近两百只老鼠了，每次去之前都会满心
不情愿，得克服巨大的心理不适应感，才能去动物房。每次回来之后浑身无力，一天啥
也干不了。过来人教教我，该怎么训练自己。
发信人: goldfishli (goldfish), 信区: Biology
标 题: Re: 大家如何克服碰老鼠的时候恐惧感
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 27 23:48:44 2015, 美东)
多做就习惯了。我当年第一次杀老鼠心跳了好... 阅读全帖 |
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C*I
发帖数: 4736 | 3 这是一个minutes by minutes story, 很有意思，有兴趣的可以看一看,长点见识。说
不定这事什么时候你真能遇上。
其中说了一个小伙子，在田纳西一个社区学院读书，回到土耳其去看他的新婚妻子，结
果就回不来了。他的妻子是乌兹别克斯坦人。 昨天突然听到消息说法官临时限制了总
统令后，就又赶紧花了1000多块钱买了机票折回来了。
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Latest on the reaction to a court order blocking U.S.
President Donald Trump's ban on travelers and immigrants from seven
predominantly Muslim countries (all times Eastern):
1:30 p.m.
The Justice Department has appealed a judge's order blocking his travel ban
at the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Sa... 阅读全帖 |
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L*****d
发帖数: 5093 | 4 If a trade war were to escalate, the fragile balance in the Chinese economy
could be tipped, and we may very well experience a second Asian crisis
While the sell-off in currencies of emerging markets with insufficient
foreign exchange (forex) reserves and wide current account deficits — such
as the Argentine peso and the Turkish lira — is still picking up steam,
there is relative calm in China. The yuan is trading well off its recent
multi-year lows.
On the surface, the yuan has plenty of forex ... 阅读全帖 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 5 yeah, Powell把明年预期的3次加息降到了2次加息
but that's not all, Powell言辞声明Fed要继续unwind its balance sheet, by
about
50B/month, that's freaking scary. |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 6 Fed其实是两条腿走路，一个是加息，另一个是unwind balance sheet(量化紧缩，缩表
，Fed将一部分持有的国债到期后不再自动rollover了)
低利率的好处是(1)银行利润空前的高，(2)大企业贷款容易成本很低，(3)联邦政府
service国债的成本低 (4)民间贷款的利率也低
(1) 造成金融也股价涨
(2) 大企业上市公司拿到钱 不干正事 却去做stock buy back, look at the post
child of stock buy back: GE!
(3) 美国一年预算的6%是用来支付国债利息的
(4) 车贷，房贷利率低 有利于刺激消费 - （美国的民间贷款年底应噶到4T了）维持房
市，车市
Obama统治的8年基本全是实际负利率的（nominal 利率 - 通货膨胀）
Trump觉得现在Fed一直在（1）升息， （2）量化紧缩，使得他和Obama不在一个level
playing field里，所以他在叫屈，这个他是有一定道理的
但是他不明白（或者假装不明白）的是Fed在Obama期间的所作所为本来就是错误的，零
利率也好，QE也好，本来都... 阅读全帖 |
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e*c
发帖数: 395 | 7 美陆军第一装甲师团200人已被派往约旦。
“They also will provide leadership personnel that could command additional
forces if it’s determined they are needed in the future.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/hagel-us-
Hagel: US sending Army planning unit to Jordan; will enhance effort on
Syrian border
By Associated Press, Published: April 17
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is sending about 200 soldiers from an Army
headquarters unit to Jordan to assist efforts to contain violence along the
Syrian bord... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********t
发帖数: 1846 | 8 http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/01/daily-char
Wealth ebbs away a lot faster than debt. Our interactive guide shows levels
of debt as a % of GDP for a selection of rich countries and emerging markets
. With a few exceptions, such as Germany and Japan, most rich countries saw
a huge rise in debt levels in the years running up to the crisis. Unwinding
these dues will take a lot longer. In many rich countries the process of
debt reduction hasn’t even started. Research by the McKins... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********y
发帖数: 122 | 9 Senator Obama was seated next to a little girl on an airplane, on a trip
back from his many fundraisers. Trying to unwind, he turned toward her and
said, “Let’s talk. I’ve uh heard that flights go quicker if you uh strike
up a conversation with your fellow passenger.” The little girl, who had
just opened her book, closed it slowly and said to the Senator, “What would
you like to talk about?”
Thinking he had an opening to dazzle her with his superior intelligence
Obama said, “Oh, Uh I don’t know, |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 10 雷曼兄弟破产时，风险与资产比是31：1，而今天德国主要银行的风险与资产比是32：1
，这些银行目前持有大量希腊债务
Sovereign Debt Crisis Won't End Until Global Financial Collapse
In the past, there certainly have been governments that have gotten into
trouble with debt, but what we are experiencing now is the first truly
global sovereign debt crisis. There has never been a time in recorded
history when virtually all of the governments of the world were drowning in
debt all at the same time. This sovereign debt crisis is never going to end
until there ... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 11 The first problem with this strategy is, the strong core countries are
willing to stick together, but weak countries may not want ot stick together.
The second problem is PIGS debt hair cut will sink France, Germans havs to
bail out France. Before German Unification, Germany was willing to pay
economic price for political/diplomatic benefit. But now that benefit does
not exist anymore. When France fails, that will be an AIG moment,
considering the size of the balance sheet of French banks.
So,... 阅读全帖 |
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B**W
发帖数: 2273 | 12 Almost 13 years ago, Mitt Romney left Bain Capital, the successful private
equity firm he had helped start, and moved to Utah to rescue the Salt Lake
City Olympic Games and begin a second career in public life.
Yet when it came to his considerable personal wealth, Mr. Romney never
really left Bain.
In what would be the final deal of his private equity career, he negotiated
a retirement agreement with his former partners that has paid him a share of
Bain’s profits ever since, bringing the Romney ... 阅读全帖 |
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S*********n
发帖数: 4050 | 13 Son, you brain is too limited to understand what is bigger -
Big Risk: $1.2 Quadrillion Derivatives Market Dwarfs World GDP
By Peter Cohan Posted 10:45AM 06/09/10 Economy, Investing, Investing Basics
Comments Text Size A A A
213413100
One of the biggest risks to the world's financial health is the $1.2
quadrillion derivatives market. It's complex, it's unregulated, and it ought
to be of concern to world leaders that its notional value is 20 times the
size of the world economy. But traders rule t... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 14 By CHARLES FORELLE And DAVID ENRICH
LONDON—Investors fled from Spanish government debt on Monday, an immediate
rejection of the country's planned bank bailout by the constituency it most
desperately needs to impress: the buyers of its own government bonds.
The market rout puts Spain and the euro zone in a dire position. The bailout
plan—in which Spain agreed to accept up to €100 billion ($125
billion) to recapitalize banks—was hatched to alleviate the concern that
Spain itself could be d... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 15 By: John Glover / Bloomberg News
Posted: 06/23/2012 3:57 PM | Comments: 0 (including replies)g
As in the lead-up to the Second World War, extremists are gaining new ground
as European countries are forced to adopt strict austerity measures not
unlike what happened in 1930s Germany.
LONDON — The spectre of the 1930s financial crisis that culminated in the
rise of Adolf Hitler’s Nazi party and the Second World War is stalking
Europe.
In May 1931, Creditanstalt, founded in Vienna by the Rothschild ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 16 By NEIL KING JR.
More than half a year after his election loss, Mitt Romney is putting a
tentative foot back onto the public stage.
Restless, a little wistful and sharply critical of President Barack Obama's
second term, Mr. Romney said in an interview that he plans to re-emerge in
ways that will "help shape national priorities."
As a first step, the former Republican presidential nominee plans to welcome
200 friends and supporters to a three-day summit next week that he will
host at a Utah moun... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 17 白宫特工所著畅销新书"The Black House"爆奥巴马是同性恋兼极端墓尸淋
Secret Service Agent Says Obama Is Gay & Extreme Muslim In New Tell-All Book
"The Black House" by Paul Horner
Amazon最新畅销书"The Black House"由白宫特工执笔爆奥巴马是同性恋兼极端墓尸淋
WASHINGTON, D.C. (AP) — A former Secret Service agent whose new book is
quickly climbing Amazon’s best-seller charts, said he is concerned about
the state of the country and says it is time the public knows the real truth
about our Commander in Chief, Barack Obama.
Former agent, Paul Horner, in hi... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 18 白宫特工所著畅销新书"The Black House"爆奥巴马是同性恋兼极端墓尸淋
Secret Service Agent Says Obama Is Gay & Extreme Muslim In New Tell-All Book
"The Black House" by Paul Horner
Amazon最新畅销书"The Black House"由白宫特工执笔爆奥巴马是同性恋兼极端墓尸淋
WASHINGTON, D.C. (AP) — A former Secret Service agent whose new book is
quickly climbing Amazon’s best-seller charts, said he is concerned about
the state of the country and says it is time the public knows the real truth
about our Commander in Chief, Barack Obama.
Former agent, Paul Horner, in hi... 阅读全帖 |
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m****o
发帖数: 3762 | 19 署名文章
特别提到了要成立一个独立委员会来参与调查
因为私法部的淋漆和马桶都在阻挠调查
Gregg Jarrett: An "avalanche of evidence" may now bury Hillary
Time For an Independent Counsel
Given these reports of DOJ’s interference, there are serious and legitimate
doubts about the integrity of the government’s ability to investigation
Clinton.
Attorney General Loretta Lynch was compromised from the beginning. She was
first elevated to the position of U.S. Attorney by Bill Clinton. She met
privately with him just days before a decision was ma... 阅读全帖 |
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p******e
发帖数: 897 | 20 Republican Congressman(Trump supporter) Steve King, who has a history of tip
-toeing around white-nationalist rhetoric, fired off a tweet Sunday
afternoon that reeked of white-supremacist ideology. The tweet referenced “
culture and demographics” being fundamental to European and American “
destiny” before closing with: “We can’t restore our civilization with
somebody else’s babies.” It is hard to read that any other way than it was
written. It is an apparent, explicit call to protect white “cul... 阅读全帖 |
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A******e
发帖数: 655 | 21 看看George Parker的那本The Unwinding of America. 里面有一个小白左拜登粉丝一
步步做到拜登的幕僚，最后彻底对拜登和民主党的失望。拜登人品极差在华盛顿基本上
人所共知。就网上一群摸不着边的黄左觉得他怎么怎么样好。
: 拜登这么煞笔
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t***5
发帖数: 1057 | 24 Sale price大概在$19,000多 + TTL。 |
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A********e
发帖数: 354 | 25 【 以下文字转载自 Biology 讨论区 】
发信人: albertsmwk (.)(.), 信区: Biology
标 题: 第一批“青年千人计划”生物类@publication列表@
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 18 15:04:16 2011, 美东)
花了一个小时，深深的鄙视一下自己的无聊行径！！
125 蔡亮 男 1980年11月 复旦大学 生命
科学 2007年12月毕业于[美国]北卡大学 [美国]加州大学旧金山分校 博士后
Cai L, Mostov K. Polarity is destiny. Cell. 2009 Nov 13;139(4):660-2. PubMed
PMID: 19914162; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC2900917.
Cai L, Makhov AM, Schafer DA, Bear JE. Coronin 1B antagonizes cortactin and
remodels Arp2/3-containing actin branche... 阅读全帖 |
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K********g
发帖数: 553 | 26 越来越觉得人生就像一盘＂大富翁＂。平日里相安无事，但难免会遇上个福神、衰神什
么的。遇上＂衰神＂的时候就是喝凉水都会塞牙缝－－事业停滞、婚姻触礁，完全无解
的样子。任何的努力都是徒劳，躲也躲不开，甩也甩不掉。唯一能做的就是耐心地等待
，等限期到了，衰神离去，一切就会自然而然地慢慢 unwind。
而什么时候时来运转，碰上个＂福星＂，恨不得足不出户也会有人把 offer 送到你面
前，夫妻之间又会相儒以沫，然后就是风调雨顺的几年。只是得意的时候还要冷静，因
为不晓得何时何地又会有＂穷神＂、＂恶魔＂在恭候大架。
有时候在想，别看我们每个人活得这么投入、这么辛苦、这么真实，说不定冥冥之中，
我们都是别人的棋子，我们的命运其实从一开始就已经注定，只是自己从不自知罢了。 |
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p****n
发帖数: 83 | 27 因为小孩生病临时取消行程。感兴趣请站内信箱联系。谢谢！
Hyatt House Gaithersburg
200 Skidmore Blvd
Gaithersburg, MD 20877, US
Check-In Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Hotel Check-In Time: 4:00 PM
Check-Out Date: Friday, April 17, 2015
Hotel Check-Out Time: 12:00 PM
Two-bedroom Trio Suite
Our two bedroom, two bathroom trio suite includes one king bed and two
double beds as well as a sofa sleeper in the living area. These large suites
are ideal for families and teams. Each bedroom has its own bathroom,
spacious closet, televis... 阅读全帖 |
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p****n
发帖数: 83 | 28 因为小孩生病临时取消行程。感兴趣请站内信箱联系。谢谢！
Hyatt House Gaithersburg
200 Skidmore Blvd
Gaithersburg, MD 20877, US
Check-In Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Hotel Check-In Time: 4:00 PM
Check-Out Date: Friday, April 17, 2015
Hotel Check-Out Time: 12:00 PM
Two-bedroom Trio Suite
Our two bedroom, two bathroom trio suite includes one king bed and two
double beds as well as a sofa sleeper in the living area. These large suites
are ideal for families and teams. Each bedroom has its own bathroom,
spacious closet, televis... 阅读全帖 |
|
p****n
发帖数: 83 | 29 因为小孩生病临时取消行程。感兴趣请站内信箱联系。谢谢！
Hyatt House Gaithersburg
200 Skidmore Blvd
Gaithersburg, MD 20877, US
Check-In Date: Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Hotel Check-In Time: 4:00 PM
Check-Out Date: Friday, April 17, 2015
Hotel Check-Out Time: 12:00 PM
Two-bedroom Trio Suite
Our two bedroom, two bathroom trio suite includes one king bed and two
double beds as well as a sofa sleeper in the living area. These large suites
are ideal for families and teams. Each bedroom has its own bathroom,
spacious closet, televis... 阅读全帖 |
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j*******d
发帖数: 142 | 30 【 以下文字转载自 Postdoc 讨论区 】
发信人: jefindeed (jef), 信区: Postdoc
标 题: One postdoc position available in USA (Biophysics, University of Kansas)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Sep 5 17:28:34 2008)
Postdoc Position Available
Position description:
A postdoctoral position is currently available for the study of DNA motor
proteins involved in DNA/RNA unwinding, DNA/RNA translocation, and chromatin
remodeling using biochemical, biophysical and mutational approaches.
Current work is focused on structure/function studie |
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t***s
发帖数: 163 | 31 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1015987
Abstract:
During the week of August 6, 2007, a number of high-profile and highly
successful quantitative long/short equity hedge funds experienced
unprecedented losses. Based on empirical results from TASS hedge-fund data
as well as the simulated performance of a specific long/short equity
strategy, we hypothesize that the losses were initiated by the rapid
unwinding of one or more sizable quantitative equity market-neutral
portfolio |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 32 Dollar carry trade unwinding |
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S******n
发帖数: 617 | 33 Maybe.
Bears are reallllllly happy to see YEN carry-trade back, instead of
USD carry-trade (what a brutal unwind that will be!).
Japan has to trash YEN to save their export economy, hoho.
cut
up |
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l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 34 exposure to GLD ~12.5%
to GLD + 其他材料 ~25%
to GLG + 其他材料 + 能源 > 30%
to GLG + 其他材料 + 能源 + Emerging Mkts > 50%
that's a very bold bet on inflation (in USD term) and confident bet on EM.
When the US Fed raises short-term rates & the dollar carry trade unwind,
watch out for the fall in all these asset classes. |
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M********r
发帖数: 278 | 35 the trillion dollar carry trade (borrow us dollar at cheap and buy high
yield RMB products) will unwind. will there be stampede at the exits? where
will this money go? these are all interesting things to see. exciting week! |
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a*****n
发帖数: 653 | 36 嗯。我是两年前开了个IRA，彻底放手交给LendingRobot打理。同时开始unwind普通账
户,到现在也没剩多少了。投资有时候也像买炊具，高压锅，铸铁锅，慢炖锅，空气炸
锅，豆浆机，面包机... 都是一开始关注，后来就不提了。不是东西不好，而是新鲜感
没了。人总是喜新厌旧，想要比boring return多一点刺激的。
管给
有达 |
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a*****n
发帖数: 653 | 37 嗯。我是两年前开了个IRA，彻底放手交给LendingRobot打理。同时开始unwind普通账
户,到现在也没剩多少了。投资有时候也像买炊具，高压锅，铸铁锅，慢炖锅，空气炸
锅，豆浆机，面包机... 都是一开始关注，后来就不提了。不是东西不好，而是新鲜感
没了。人总是喜新厌旧，想要比boring return多一点刺激的。
管给
有达 |
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f****4
发帖数: 1359 | 38 这里的“destructor出错不可以抛出异常”不是说c++语法禁止你这么做
而是在exception 抛出之后，正常代码的执行持续被打断，进入异常处理阶段
同时，所有的local 对象都要call destructor
c++异常处理同时只能处理1个异常
所以如果你允许在destructor抛出异常的话，就有可能在stack unwinding的过程中，
有2个异常————结果就是程序abort（）
所以有“destructor出错不可以抛出异常”的说法 |
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w****m
发帖数: 146 | 39 sometimes when exception is thrown in dtor, it will cause stack unwinding |
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e**c
发帖数: 95 | 40 stack unwinding is not a bad thing, what do you mean? |
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w****m
发帖数: 146 | 41 Sorry for thr confusion, I should clarify it: If during stack unwinding a
dtor throws an exception and it is not caught and handled, the terminate()
function will be called. So be prepared to catch any potential exception in
dtor |
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x***y
发帖数: 633 | 42 1. exceptions thrown by the variables or operations at globe, file or
namespace scope.
2. exceptions thrown in the process of stack unwinding in the try block,
which is, some exceptions are thrown in the destructor of a variable. |
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x***y
发帖数: 633 | 43 If a signal handler has been set to deal with SIGSEGV, the program won't
necessarily crash. But from this program, only one try catch pair is
specified, so any exceptions thrown in stack unwinding can not be caught. |
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s*****n
发帖数: 5488 | 44 应该是了，还要啰啰嗦嗦讲stack unwind呢。 |
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P**********c
发帖数: 3417 | 45 stack unwind是回答为什么不能用throw exception吧。这个题目一开始就告诉你不能
了，问你能用什么其他的办法。FAQ里对这个的回答是：
Write a message to a log-file. Or call Aunt Tilda.
当然也可能面试的就是想让你解释下为什么不能throw exception. |
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x***y
发帖数: 633 | 46 I have not used C++ for a long time, but I think I remeber this.
First of all, you can definitely having a try catch for constructor or
destructor
2nd of all, all the objects in the stack will be unwinded
3nd of all, the object on the heap will not. |
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q****x
发帖数: 7404 | 47
no context, no idea.
sth like stack unwinding.
forget.
parent class?
this is basic
suspect
for loop dump pstack |
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t****t
发帖数: 6806 | 48
abi=application binary interface, 最主要的是决定函数怎么调用, 还有name
mangling, exception的处理
api还用说么.
stack unwind until caught, or until another exception (terminate())
unexpected()
EDIT:搞混了, 是terminate(). unexpected发生在扔出说明里没有的异常时.
const, reference, parent class w/o default ctor
reference can not be reseated, can not have nullptr value
suspect
这个太泛泛了, 必须得有点背景才行吧. 比如说看/proc/pid里的东西, 但是看什么就
很难说了. |
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m*********0
发帖数: 46 | 49 2. Call stack上存的是当前正被调度运行的线程调用栈
3. heap是process wide。stack是thread wide， 函数调用结束后会frame会被unwind
give |
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h***b
发帖数: 1233 | 50 ask for deposit money back, reimburse costs you incurred on inspection, loan
charges, appraisal, if there's any, and perhaps plus some more just to
compensate your time. it's fair to ask a little more--for symbolic reason.
both sides will feel ok to unwind the contract. |
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