v****o
发帖数: 978 | 1 发信人: shangstud (某某某), 信区: Investment
标 题: Re: 通货膨胀到来的时间点
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jan 3 21:27:10 2010, 美东)
well, one way to look at it is the following: if *every* country in the
world is printing money like crazy to save their own economy, then printing
money is not a problem (for the US) and it should have a minimum impact on
the inflation. And that is precisely what we have observed in the past year
or so... |
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v****o
发帖数: 978 | 2 shangstud (某某某), 信区: Investment
标 题: Re: 通货膨胀到来的时间点
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 4 07:28:43 2010, 美东)
This is an important point, is inflation relative or absolute? My
understanding is that for the US to see high inflation, it has to be
inflation w.r.t. other currencies. But it well could be that the inflation
has to take place w.r.t. certain commodities, such as rice or gold. That
said, a commodity is not a commodity if it is not traded in some currencies,
and therefore in all currencies (minus RM |
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v****o
发帖数: 978 | 3 shangstud (某某某), 信区: Investment
标 题: Re: 通货膨胀到来的时间点
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Jan 4 07:36:26 2010, 美东)
I feel that China is a slightly different story because the RMB is under
state control and does not flow freely w.r.t. other major currencies. I don'
t really know how to make a connection between China and US here, or use one
to predict the other. What you said could well be true, on how the GDP
growth relates to potential inflation in the US. But, inflation, as a
healthy side-product of general e |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 4 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
shangstud (某某某) 于 (Fri Oct 17 17:40:59 2008) 提到:
when I read the tread on not copying what Warren Buffet did, someone, might
be splendidchen? mentions that buy-and-hold is not the same as never sell
anything and that it is important to do asset allocation and rebalance.
I completely agree to that and I think it is ultimately important to do your
diversification, do you allocation, and do your rebalance.
From what I understand, the purpose of doing all |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 5 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
shangstud (某某某) 于 (Wed Oct 22 00:17:35 2008) 提到:
The purpose of timing the market is to beat the market, which is often
closely associated with the S&P500 Index. Why S&P500 index? because it is
consisted of 500 very large public companies in the US with a total capital
realization of close to 80% of the entire US domestic stock market.
Therefore, in effect, when you look at the S&P500 index, you are roughly
looking at the US economic output. To beat t |
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v****o
发帖数: 978 | 6 郎咸平：三驾马车无一能动 2010年中国经济的困境 郎咸平博客
2009年是不平凡的一年，你们的感想也颇多吧？我以前不止一次的说过，中国的经
济现在已经不是什么时候见底的问题了，而是见底之后怎么办？目前中国经济已经见底
了，见底之后我们凭什么再次拉动经济复苏。
我从来不预言的，但是我不得不提醒大家，2010年的经济是不容乐观的。我之所以
这么讲，都是有根据的。2010年的经济会发展吗？如果你经常看我的节目，你心里肯字
有底的。中国经济发展的几架马车还有哪一辆能拉的起来？消费这一驾马车，我也不用
说大家心里都清清楚楚的，老百姓哪敢消费！用什么去消费？这一架已经跑不动了。出
口，讲出口就不得不讲奥巴马。这个家伙来这次来中国给我们带来了三个“礼物”，当
然肯定不是好东西。他给我们带来的是贸易大战、汇率大战和成本大战。他所带来的每
一个礼物我们都是可以看到的。这三个大战之后，那么我们的出口马车还能跑多远，这
个问题给大家思考。现在还有一架马车拉着中国经济向前走，那就基础建设。告诉你，
世界上没有哪一个国家能靠持续的投资基础建设发展成为经济强国的。在其它两架马车
跑不动的前得下，靠基础建设把经济 |
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v****o
发帖数: 978 | 7 遭遇民科
February 26, 2008 11:00 pm UTC | In Life, Study
所谓“饱暖思淫欲”，有些民间非科研人士在吃饱了穿暖了的情况下就开始强奸科学，
这种我们一般叫做民间科学（家），简称“民科”。前几天正在和老板开会，老板接到
一个民科电话，唧唧歪歪了十多分钟。此人受教育程度良好，先前声称自己推翻了相对
论，最近又有了新的发现希望和物理学家讨论。老板曾经收到此人十多页的《新相对论
》手稿，里面没有一个公式！拜托，你可不要以为相对论只有在接近光速或者强引力场
里面才能派上用场，光光对准 GPS 卫星上的原子钟，就需要考虑狭义和广义相对论的
两种效应，如果没有公式来计算，GPS 的误差就不是几米了，而是几公里，飞机撞到塔
台上你给负责啊……
关于民科的特点，我了解的不够全面，随便转载一篇文章里提到的六个特点：1. 选择
性近视；2. 新名词极多，逻辑混乱；3. 受困于常识，又喜欢发表一些超越具体问题之
上的议论；4. 常常夸大结论的意义，尤其喜欢表达爱国情怀；5. 常常把结论建立在未
来的可能性上；6. 往往认为自己受到学阀的歧视和打压。可是有不少讨论民科 |
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