p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 1 他的書裡舉的都是納粹德國和蘇聯的例子。當初看這本書的時候覺得他對於共產黨國家
的批判確實很透徹。所以當初看確實是帶著有色眼鏡吧。但是對於社會主義就意味著極
權主義這個論點，現在看起來很難苟同。 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 2 as I said, if you want to learn to understand economy, read Mises and
Rothbard, not Hayak. Hayak has strayed from his roots, therefore the
problems. Nobel committee waited until Mises passed away to give Award to
Hayak for a good reason, although Hayak deserve the Award much better than
most economists before or after him. Mises is undoubtedly the most briliant
economist in all times. You can disagree, but please read it before you
dismiss it.
Human behavoir in the economy is very very simil |
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w***s
发帖数: 4394 | 3 那只是因为北欧国家管的还不够多，还没到管天管地的地步，福利也没有苏联那样多。
即使这样，经济也已经一塌糊涂了。和苏联比就是一个慢死和快死的区别。等北欧的福
利和前苏联一样多了，政府接管一切的时候，想不集权也不可能啊。 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 写的很好, 支持楼主.
当初看动物庄园, 觉得写的太tmd的真实了, 尽管好多年前写的,怎么和中国一摸一样呢
. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 5 You are at least making a coherent argument, unlike the other die-hards on
this board. The Austrian school has been relegated to the fringe of
economics for a reason, because like Marxism, it cannot really solve any
real economic problems. As to studying human behavior, economic theory has
made significant progress since the 1970s. You may not like mathematical
modeling and analysis, but it is much more precise and scientific than the
Austrian school, which like Freud, cannot really be called sc |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 6 Have you read Mises or Rothbard?
How do you qualify human behavior? If you can't, how do you build
mathematical models? |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 7 I admit that I've not read it. But in order for it to be qualified as
science, scientific methods must be used. Clearly, the Austrian school is a
belief system like Marxism, but not a scientific discipline.
Economic theory has already adopted a lot of findings from psychology and
decision sciences. If you build a model that does not match reality, it will
be falsified by data from the real world. That's the difference between
neoclassical economics and the so-called Austrian school. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 8 you havent read the book yet dismiss it. Does not sounds very scientific to
me.
You did not answer my question: if you cant quantify human behavoir, how do
you build your ecometrics model to analyze/predict economic activities,
which is humane behavoir.
I happened to be a follower of Fresh Water Schools before I was intrduced to
Austrian theory. Now I feel so relieved I don't have to try very hard to
explain the economic development in the framework of the neoclassics.
Austrian school liberat |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 9 I'm dismissing it as a scientific discipline, that's it. You may argue that
economics should be done as a religion, then you are entitled to your
opinion.
Your second paragraph precisely makes my point. The Austrian school is a
belief system--once you believe it, all the evidence in the world will not
convince you otherwise, because there is no way to prove it wrong, as a
belief system always has a post hoc argument that salvages itself.
Christians may believe in intelligent design even though t |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 10 actually, you are the religious person, by claiming Austrian theory is a
belief system without even studying it.
I went to U Chicago to study Chicago School, by the way.
that
mountain |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 11 Not reading the books does not mean that I don't "know about" it. A
scientific discipline has to use scientific methods, namely, tests using
empirical evidence. You are evading my very valid criticism of the Austrian
school. |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 12 emperical evidence: economic activity is human behavoir, value is subjective
, simple concept, not religion. Agree?
what is your emperical evidence? economic data,data mining, statistic
analysis, superficial manifestation of human behavoir, which is constantly
changing and interacting. No computer can model that. It is much more
complicated than Global Warming Model. Your econometrics models spit out
results much more absurd than man-made global warming. Before your computers
can model human |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 13 TeddyBear妹妹的学养，甚为钦佩！谢谢跟贴。
对于Hayek的学问人品，相信已经盖棺论定，我们也不必狗尾续貂了。其实，他的思想
集大成之作，窃以为，是这一本：The Constitution of Liberty, University of
Chicago Press, 1960, ISBN 0226320847.
而对于经济学的"科学"建模之局限性，2007年8月的"Quant Meltdown"大概是最好的实
证。面对人类行为的无限复杂性，任何企图用"科学方法”毕其功于一役来描述，不过
是痴人说梦罢了。如有兴趣，可参考 Andrew Lo 的最新文献：WARNING: Physics Envy
Could Be Hazardous To Your Wealth!
http://web.mit.edu/alo/www/Papers/physics8.pdf
"If people do not believe that mathematics is simple, it is only because they do not realize how complicated li |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 14 A task being difficult does not mean that one should stop trying. The
Austrian School's attitude towards economics is, "since it is so complicated
, you should believe in what I write in my bible, because you cannot show
that I am wrong." What's its difference from Marxism, really?
Most critics of neoclassical economics have failed to distinguish
microeconomics and macroeconomics. Microeconomic theory has been remarkably
successful at explaining and predicting economic behavior. Macroeconomics, |
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 15 macro behavior is the congregate of micro behaoir, therefore, macro analysis
has to derive from micro analysis, and macro explaination must be
consistant with micro behavoir. that is the fundation of Austrian School.
That is also the principle of all established natural science fields, be it
chemistry, phisics, math, or biology. I was a trained Biochemist, touched
upon various fields in natural science, consistancy is always the basic
requirement.
analyzing macro phenomenum without being confo |
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r****f
发帖数: 1041 | 16 奥地利学派为什么被边缘化？凯恩斯主义为什么会成为占据美国学界和政界主导地位的
“显学”？
一个推崇自由市场反对任何政府干预；一个大谈政府干预的重要性，为“大政府”提供
理论依据，为liberal agenda敲边鼓。
对这次的金融危机，Greenspan至今不承担责任，上周在听证会上说只有很少几个人预
见了危机的到来，Bernanke的公开讲话从05年一直错到09年，没一次说对的，让人怀疑
他是真不懂还是在刻意撒谎。
但是奥地利学派的众多学者早就警告了这场危机的到来。Schiff，Faber，Paul等从04
年起就在公众媒体预言警示了无数次。
芝加哥学派是不纯粹的自由市场倡导者，他们迷信联储的作用。但是试问靠FOMC的几个
人能够比市场的力量更有效地调控经济？事实上Freedman晚年对这个问题也有反思。 |
|
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 18 See, that's where your confusion lies.
Last time you read the manual for your computer, did you see the word "
electron" mentioned at all? For that matter, does a computer programmer have
to know quantum physics?
The same analogy applies to macroeconomics and individual behavior.
analysis
it |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 19 your basis of economic study is model on the basis of human behavoir
resembles random activities of micro-particles without specific purpose? And
I am the confused one?
Look, the difference between your physics and econometics analagy is: each
human activity has its purpose, ie, to make his own life better. Humans
learn and anticipate and therefore modifies their behavior when macro
conditions(other people's activities) change, which in turn change the macro
condition. therefore, to analyze ma |
|
p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 20 You are missing the point--even though the behavior of micro particles does
not have a purpose, the macro behavior of physical objects is "caused" by
the micro particles. However, a theory about the physical objects could be
very useful even without knowing the nature of the underlying movements of
the micro particles. The same analogy goes here.
The analogy is--even though we don't put in our model each micro-level
individual's behavior, we could still have a model about the macroeconomic
behav |
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l*********s
发帖数: 5409 | 21 共产主义虽然荒唐，好歹还有曾经被人试图实现。奥地利学派的经济理论逻辑很强大，
但是那一个国家政府采用过？ |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 22 the difference is Humans anticipate and micro particals do not, therefore
macro-economics has to build in micro-anticipation.
are you s---- or what? ( I said I was running out of patience)
does |
|
p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 23 My point is, whether they do or they do not does not matter to the
usefulness of the model. If you had competent reading comprehension, you
would have understood it. What's the goal of theory? To explain and to
predict--not to describe every aspect of the object of study.
Could you really be sure that the micro particles are not following the
orders of God? No, you can't. But it does not prevent the theory about macro
physical objects from being useful. |
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p**********d
发帖数: 7918 | 24 共產主義和奧地利學派一樣都是無法被證偽的理論。你說共產主義失敗，共產主義的信
徒可以告訴你，從來沒有人真正照共產主義的教條去實行過。 |
|
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 26 Yes, it has, in principle.
The USA was founded on the same common sense Libertarian principles even
before the theory. That is why the US became the most powerful nation.
Since FDR, the foundations have been gradually eroded, therefore the mess
today. |
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l*********s
发帖数: 5409 | 27 Fast fact checking indicates that US became World dominating power after FDR
. |
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L****a
发帖数: 572 | 28 Your understanding may be wrong
Keynesian : both monetary and fiscal policy should be used
Chicago school : only monetary policy should be used, fiscal
policy shouldn't be used
Astrian school : neither monetary nor fiscal policy should be used
The history proved that pure market machanism does not work. Actually,
if we look at the history of recession. The number and duration of
recessions before 1900 are much more than those in the modern area.
School(
on
I |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 29 Rome was not build in one day.
FDR turned a recession into the Great Depression.
FDR |
|
T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 30 Your clain on history is not true, no recession before 1900 has been as bad
as the Great Depression and the Carter years and the Great Recession now.
Plus, prior to 1900, there were two central banks in the US, the first one
started by Alexanda Hamilton, which caused hyper inflation. Another problem
prior to 1900 is fractional reserve which creats currency out of thin air,
which causes boom and bust. sounds familiar to you now? Pure market economy
would have purged those problem at a very early |
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c*****n
发帖数: 581 | 31 你自己读读不就知道了。
这两个人的书我都读过，另外最好不要读中文的翻译，很多错误，
写的很好，回答了很多我一直困惑的问题。 |
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T**********1
发帖数: 2406 | 32 my typo, I meant "how do you QUANTIFY human behavoir" |
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c*****n
发帖数: 581 | 33 读一读的奥地利学派的的入门读物就可以了。
不用quantify，一切由比较出来的。
比如对一个人来说，某个东西比另外一个东西更有价值。
这样一个东西的价值才体现出来，也就是说，没有比较，就没有价值。
你不能说一个东西很值钱，而是相比什么东西才值钱，
人每天就在做无数的小的决定，比如几点钟起床，早饭吃什么，
上班走哪条路。等等。 |
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j******a
发帖数: 1582 | 34 这妹子啥背景?
一会是Trained Biochemist
一会又是在U Chicago读经济
and
Human |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 35 Dr. Hanson：欧盟最后一刻的决定背后，是清清楚楚的德国的新欧洲秩序：如果你想过
德国人那样的生活，那就必须象德国人一样工作和节省。或者接受，或者离开
Germany’s dominance was won by national character, not arms or handouts.
The rise of a German Europe began in 1914, failed twice, and has now ended
in the victory of German power almost a century later. The Europe that
Kaiser Wilhelm lost in 1918, and that Adolf Hitler destroyed in 1945, has at
last been won by Chancellor Angela Merkel without firing a shot.
Or so it seems from European newspapers, which now refer bit... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 36 By Mark Steyn
February 25, 2012 4:00 A.M.
CNN’s John King did his best the other night, producing a question from one
of his viewers:
“Since birth control is the latest hot topic, which candidate believes in
birth control, and if not, why?”
To their credit, no Republican candidate was inclined to accept the premise
of the question. King might have done better to put the issue to Danica
Patrick. For some reason, Michelle Fields of the Daily Caller sought the
views of the NASCAR driver and Sports ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 37 Maybe Pain Will Teach You Millenials Not To Vote For Your Own Serfdom
Kurt Schlichter | Nov 04, 2013
You Millenials voted for Obama by a margin of 28 percent, which will make it
a lot easier for me to accept the benefits you will be paying for. We
warned you that liberalism was a scam designed to take the fruits of your
labor and transfer it to us, the older, established generation. Oh, and also
to the couch-dwelling, Democrat-voting losers who live off of food stamps
and order junk from QVC wit... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 38 Poverty Doubles Over the Past 30 Years, Despite Robust “Economic Growth”
by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
One of my favorite lines about the current oligarch theft continuing to
occur throughout the world is courtesy of the “Artist Taxi Driver,” who
likes to state:
“This is not a recession its a robbery.”
Truer words were never said, but this theft goes back a lot further than the
latest economic catastrophe. As we all know by now, real median wages haven
’t increased in the U.S. ... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 39 这是一场恋爱——柏拉图式恋爱，但依然是一场恋爱。正如美国一名前外交官所说，美
国总统罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)和英国首相玛格丽特•撒切尔(
Margaret Thatcher)是“政治和哲学方面的精神伴侣”。里根与撒切尔之间的关系，确
保了自由市场理想的回归。他们两人都旨在削弱他们认为干涉过多、能力低下的政府。
他们观点的统一，不仅仅重塑了美英两国的政治与政策，而且重塑了全球的政治与政策
，但并非仅靠其本身做到了这一点。可以说，邓小平在中国上台，是一项更具根本性的
长期变化。
时间快进到今天。在1月的就职演讲中，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)没有提到
里根的“山巅的闪光之城”，反而谈起了“美国大屠杀”。这不仅仅是一种情绪改变。
长期以来，共和党的领袖们一直通过迎合民众在文化、宗教和种族方面的焦虑，争取他
们所需的选票，借以实现他们的减税、减少开支和放松经济管制的主要目标。特朗普的
讲话直接针对愤怒、焦虑的人群，承诺捍卫社会保障和联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)、
支持保护主义并限制移民。他说：“保护会带来极大的繁荣和实... 阅读全帖 |
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m********2
发帖数: 104 | 40 here is some help @http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/pomfretschina/2008/04/tibet_wont_move_china_but_taiw.html
Remember WMD in the Iraq war? Tibet, another lie from the western media.
The so-called "free media" never have the courage to report a simple fact:
90% of Tibetans were serfs and slaves in Tibet under Dalai Lama. It was the
Communist Chinese Army who liberated Tibet from the brutal theocracy serfdom
rule of Dalai Lama and the upper class monks. The liberation of Tibet by
PLA |
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y*o
发帖数: 27 | 41 Question:
How does he comment about the serfdom or slavery society of Tibet when he
was ruling Tibet?
有： |
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j***h
发帖数: 4412 | 42 住在湾区的华人如果去过UC伯克利的话，应该对University Ave上与UC伯克利仅有一个
block的那间西藏店有印象。今天白垃圾headquarter伯克利社区报刊登了一篇奇文，East
Bay Tibetans, Chinese Clash Over S.F. Olympic Torch Relay （链接及全文如下
）。
该期的版首照片是一个三藩市土著华裔，Will Lee，对该报记者说的支持北京奥运的一
段话。然而细读下文，全文仅有三个短短的段落提及湾区华人对北京奥运的支持，其余
的通篇都是跟从达赖的流亡藏人对西藏的进步及现状的污蔑。那间在2037 University
Ave的Little Tibet的东主Tsewang Khangsar，居然说出“Three generations have
passed. They said they would liberate us from serfdom to justify their
occupation, but there has been no economic or social progress since t |
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s********a
发帖数: 135 | 43 这里说的是当天在会场发散的传单。
我觉得最后能在一页之内，文字内容以揭露真相为主，所以想了下面这个，大家帮忙看
看有没有不妥之处。多提些意见，谢谢了！
Ten Truths You May Not Know About Dalai Lama and Tibet
Truth #1: Tibet became part of China in 1362 A.D., 130 years before Columbus
discovered America!
Truth #2: Tibetans suffered serfdom under the regime of Dalai Lama before
1951. Dalai Lama and the ruling class who made up of 5% of Tibetan
population owned all the land, while the rest 95% of Tibetans were slaves,
treated as “things” or property by Dalai Lama and other |
|
d********y
发帖数: 176 | 44 communication is the key.
Shoko Asahara (麻原 彰晃, friend of Dalai Lama， master mind behind Sarin
gas attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995).
Dorje Shugden (another deity in Tibet that Dalai Lama forbid Tibetan to
worship).
Caste system, serfdom (the slavery system in Tibet)
Shan·gri–la |
|
d*******n
发帖数: 2 | 45 The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich von Hayek |
|
B******1
发帖数: 9094 | 46 The title might be:
Global Warming: Why the Ablishment of Serfdom Caused the First Reported
Meltdown in Himalayas? |
|
M********4
发帖数: 1272 | 47 If you buy, your debt serfdom will be perpetrated, with your meager wage.
After you have been tricked into claiming you are one of their corporate
United States Citizens, you are given a social security number which ties
you to certain meager "benefits" and "privileges."Then, the bankers con your
employer to function as an unpaid tax collector to con you into filling out
their W-4 intangible property gift forms and 1040 voluntary agreements.
Property tax in Texas is extra. So much for the Matri... 阅读全帖 |
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y****e
发帖数: 1712 | 48 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
feishu2006 (feishu2006) 于 (Thu Jan 26 23:32:15 2012, 美东) 提到:
我们年收入在20万以上，有存款，可以买得起HP/UP 60万左右的房子，但是担心孩子能
不能fit in社区的lifestyle.请问在hpisd住的中国人多吗，孩子在学校会不会受到歧
视？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
baobaopo (baobao) 于 (Thu Jan 26 23:57:19 2012, 美东) 提到:
BSO.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
feishu2006 (feishu2006) 于 (Fri Jan 27 00:15:25 2012, 美东) 提到:
不是，是真心请教。在网上看了不少美国人的讨论，觉得很迷惑。20万收入在那个区肯
定是低的，我们大人无所谓，怕孩子会不会太sensitive了。
☆─────────────... 阅读全帖 |
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j***i
发帖数: 3096 | 49 就是关于我们集会的视频
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=3125846
有时间的兄弟去谴责一下他们的CNN行为。
其中一个
Condensed from Friendly Feudalism: The Tibet Myth by Dr. Michael Parenti.
To most of us, Tibet recalls a heaven of mystery and charm. The Himalayas,
mirror-like lakes, the magnificent Potala Palace, and the pure sky
constitute a picture of Shangri-La. But that's not the complete story of
Tibet before the 1950s. Before the Democratic Reform of 1959, Tibet had long
been a serfdom society under the despotic political- eli |
|
e****r
发帖数: 377 | 50 【 以下文字转载自 Michigan 讨论区 】
发信人: skycloudia (为什么挺不错的单身女生那么多), 信区: Michigan
标 题: 关于Flyer的初步设想（请大家提建议）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Apr 14 07:13:12 2008)
这里说的是当天在会场发散的传单。
我觉得最后能在一页之内，文字内容以揭露真相为主，所以想了下面这个，大家帮忙看
看有没有不妥之处。多提些意见，谢谢了！
Ten Truths You May Not Know About Dalai Lama and Tibet
Truth #1: Tibet became part of China in 1362 A.D., 130 years before Columbus
discovered America!
Truth #2: Tibetans suffered serfdom under the regime of Dalai Lama before
1951. Dalai Lama and the ruling class who made up of 5% o |
|
