b*********n
发帖数: 2284 | 1 各个网页上谁去都可以点的poll基本上可以当笑话看.这种poll根本不是random sample
, 也就是所谓的随机采样. 这些poll都有 self-selection bias.
实际上控制bias的poll很少会sample超过1000人的. 因为error margin在1000人时就到
3%. 如果想再减小error margin就要显著增加sample size但成本太高. 一般几千几万
人的poll基本上都是self selected. |
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P*O
发帖数: 4324 | 2 But of all the polls that have been released, there are two polls that will
have Team Obama waking up in a cold sweat knowing that if these polls are
even somewhat accurate they might be on the other end of a dramatic victory
on Election Day: The party-affiliation polls from Gallup and Rasmussen.
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331828/two-polls-have-chic |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 3 2008年80%犹太人支持O8，一叶知秋，静待选举结果。
The majority of American voters in Israel cast their ballots for Republican
presidential candidate Mitt Romney, according to an exit poll released
Thursday by the organization iVoteIsrael, reported Haaretz.
“iVoteIsrael is proud to announce that 80,000 Americans from Israel have
already submitted their ballots to their local county board of elections in
any of the 49 states where we successfully registered voters from,”
commented Elie Pieprz, national director of iVo... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 4 不知道这个民调水分多少。不过，Michigan没有提前投票，对共和党比较有利。
好戏连台！
Dead heat for Romney and Obama in latest Michigan poll
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.86%
President Barack Obama 46.24%
Another candidate 4.94%
Undecided 1.96%
Foster McCollum White Baydoun (FMW)B, a national public opinion polling and
voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan and representing the
combined resources of Foster McCollum White & Associates (Troy Michigan) and
Baydoun Consulting (Dearborn Michigan) conducted a telephone-automa... 阅读全帖 |
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l**********1
发帖数: 2980 | 5 Radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh charged on Monday that the nation’s
pollsters have failed to accurately predict the outcome of the 2012
presidential election.
“Common sense tells me this election isn't gonna be close — and it shouldn
't be,” Limbaugh said on his afternoon radio program. “And yet, every poll
, every single poll, has this race tied.
“I have said that as we get down to the election, the polls are gonna
reflect what's really gonna happen because the pollsters want to get it
right... 阅读全帖 |
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t***h
发帖数: 5601 | 6 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-
November 6, 2012, 1:43 am
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
By NATE SILVER
Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College
hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the
first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the
polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270
electoral votes.
But the most rec... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 7
Nov 6, 2012
By Todd Starnes
A poll worker in North Carolina has been accused of telling people to vote
Democrat.
Ken Sharpe, of High Point, NC, told Fox News that he was waiting in line to
vote when he noticed a poll worker approach a woman who needed help. The
incident occurred at the Springfield Friends Church polling station in the
city’s third ward.
Sharpe said he watched as the worker showed the woman where the Obama button
was – along with all the other Democrats on the ticket.
“She w... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 8 While voters are angry with everyone in Washington, Republicans continue to
see the brunt of the blame and growing disapproval, according to a new poll
out Monday.
Seventy-four percent of Americans disapprove of the way Republicans in
Congress are handling negotiations over the budget, the Washington Post-ABC
News poll shows. This is up four points from last week’s poll and up eleven
points since the start of the shutdown.
Democrats also see a majority of Americans disapproving how they are
hand... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 Poll: Even People in Illinois Say Illinois Worst State to Live In
April 25, 2014
Now, usually when a state is dissed it is dissed by people from outside the
state. With the usual hometown bravado, and all, denizens of a state used to
stick up for their own in the face of criticism. But a new poll finds that
Illinois is so bad, even people that live there say it sucks.
America is a land of polls, for sure, but this poll is a particularly
telling one. The Gallup polling firm asked residents of the... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 10 'Essentially, the public is saying your presidency is over'
NBC’s Chuck Todd described the latest WSJ/NBC poll as a “disaster for the
president” and argued that the American public is essentially saying Obama
’s “presidency is over.”
This poll is a disaster for the president,” Todd said. “You look at the
presidency here: lowest job rating, tied for the lowest; lowest on foreign
policy. His administration is seen as less competent than the Bush
administration, post-Katrina.”
“On the issue of do ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 11 As the Ebola crisis surges to the top issue on the minds of Americans, a new
poll finds that 82 percent of those following the issue closely want to
quarantine anybody who has recently traveled to the virus-stricken nations.
The Economist/YouGov poll found that women are more concerned than men and
would refuse entry to anybody from those nations. Just 16 percent would
allow them into the nation.
The poll is the latest proof that the nation is in an Ebola frenzy that
believes Washington and Pres... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 Businessman Donald Trump continues to gain ground in the race for the
Republican nomination. What’s more, the number of GOP primary voters
saying they would at least consider backing Trump has more than doubled in
the last two months. Meanwhile, support for Democratic frontrunner former
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remains high, despite sliding to its
lowest yet.
These are some of the findings from the latest Fox News national poll on the
2016 presidential race.
Trump receives the backi... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 13 COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) — Donald Trump has emerged as the front-runner for the
GOP nomination by winning over roughly a third of Republicans in the early
voting states and in preference polls, packing his rallies with men and
women, evangelical Christians and military veterans, blue-collar workers and
wealthy retirees.
His critics have argued for months he’ll never be able to grow that wide-
but-only-so-deep coalition by clashing with Pope Francis, attacking former
President George W. Bush and skipp... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 14 Poll: Trump, Clinton in statistical tie
Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a statistical tie in a head-to-head match-
up for the presidency, a new national poll released Wednesday finds.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Clinton with 41 percent support to Trump’s 40
percent. Nineteen percent of voters are still undecided.
Trump is surging since Ted Cruz and John Kasich exited the GOP race. Last
week, Clinton led Trump by about 13 points in the same poll.
Polls are showing a race between Trump and Clin... 阅读全帖 |
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I********w
发帖数: 763 | 15 Poll全是左媒搞出来的，可信度随Trump人气增高而成指数级下降，所以我现在基本不
看Poll。
唯一担心的是，利用虚假Poll, 在选民中造成Trump民意落后的假象，从而掩盖大选那
天主党选票作弊，达到以所谓和Poll表现一致的假票数，助希拉里上位的目的。 |
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a*****6
发帖数: 1800 | 17 我是听主流人士 说的这个 POLL 早就臭大街了。
又不是听 传粉 说的。
==============================================
发信人: lengxi1981 (test), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:11:40 2016, 美东)
只有你们川粉认为臭大街，因为你们川粉认为一切不利于你们的poll都是假的
【 在 addadd6 (haha) 的大作中提到: 】
: 标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:08:57 2016, 美东)
: 扯淡，这是最有信誉的poll之一 |
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a*****6
发帖数: 1800 | 18 这也证明 cnn 没有信用。 才7天， POLL 的变化 不可能这么大的。
发信人: sweetsister (甜甜), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: Florida Poll，希拉里领先5 point
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Sep 20 22:19:39 2016, 美东)
上周CNN的poll说Trump领先 3 points 呢。
是不是CNN上周比较香，这周就变臭了？
------------------------------------------
Clinton's 5-point advantage is wider than other recent polls out of the
state, including a CNN/ORC survey released last week that found Trump up by
3, within the poll's 3.5 percentage point margin of error. |
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m*****s
发帖数: 4427 | 20 真他妈不要脸啊
4chan and Reddit bombarded debate polls to declare Trump the winner
Andrew Couts and Austin Powell — Sept 27 at 6:39AM | Last updated Sept 27
at 7:38AM
Donald Trump with reddit Snoo
Photo via Gage Skidmore / Flickr (CC-BY-SA) Remix by Jason Reed
Who won the first presidential debate? It depends on who trolled the polls.
You may be getting trolled right now without even knowing it.
Donald Trump supporters artificially manipulated the results of online polls
to create a false narrative tha... 阅读全帖 |
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w******g
发帖数: 2047 | 21 4chan and Reddit bombarded debate polls to declare Trump the winner
www.dailydot.com/layer8/trump-clinton-debate-online-polls-4chan-the-donald/
There’s an unspoken rule of the internet: Never trust online polls. They’
re too easily corruptible.
4chan, the notorious message board, has a long history of botting online
competitions. In 2009, users flooded the Time 100 poll to ensure that the
site’s founder, Christopher “moot” Poole, made the cut. In 2012, the
pranksters employed JavaScript to vote ... 阅读全帖 |
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C****t
发帖数: 3813 | 24 【 以下文字转载自 USelection 俱乐部 】
发信人: CalCat (北加猫), 信区: USelection
标 题: Foxnews: Poll shows Hillary 11% up over Trump
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 11 00:41:52 2016, 美东)
Poll shows Clinton up 11 percent over Trump in 4-way race
In the wake of a tape that showed Donald Trump making sexual comments about
women, a new NBC/WSJ poll shows Hillary Clinton now leading the race for the
White House by double digits.
The poll, taken after the release of the tape Friday but before Sunday night
's debate, shows Clinto... 阅读全帖 |
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q***0
发帖数: 225 | 25 有没有搞错啊，成天盯着polls的是你家教主。从primary开始就整天吹自己poll多高，
现在也也一样，poll稍微高一点就拿来吹一吹，poll低了就说polls是crooked。 |
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a**t
发帖数: 3833 | 26 【 以下文字转载自 USelection 俱乐部 】
发信人: CalCat (北加猫), 信区: USelection
标 题: Foxnews: Poll shows Hillary 11% up over Trump
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Oct 11 00:41:52 2016, 美东)
Poll shows Clinton up 11 percent over Trump in 4-way race
In the wake of a tape that showed Donald Trump making sexual comments about
women, a new NBC/WSJ poll shows Hillary Clinton now leading the race for the
White House by double digits.
The poll, taken after the release of the tape Friday but before Sunday night
's debate, shows Clinto... 阅读全帖 |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 27 是因为新闻媒体背后的集团害怕，你可能不知道poll的构成，比如poll公司会随即采访
比如三千人，但他们会根据性别年龄地区进行样本调整，然后按不同可能分几个poll提
供给雇主，也会指明哪个poll most likely， 这时候发布哪个样本，由媒体决定。比
如如果一个样本里年轻人太多，根据投票习惯，他们的比例就要压缩到最合理比例，但最
大最小比例都会提供，是一大串各种不同组合的poll，由老板定夺。
: 实际脱欧的民调，一直都是脱欧的高。
: 就是新闻媒体做驼鸟，不相信而已。
: 认为人们投票的社会，肯定会理智。
: 结果实最后得结果，和以前脱欧民调一样。
: 实际是民调正确了。
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h*******n
发帖数: 8906 | 28 很多人都怪公投那天天气太糟 伦敦很多人没出来投票
: 是的，雇主当然要准确性，但发布哪个样本结果和poll公司准确性没有关系，也
从来没
: 有媒体解释poll不准的原因，英国脱欧为何poll差了10%，是因为几乎所有媒体
采用的
: poll样本都把英国东部投票比例设定在50%,而把伦敦定为75%,
: 所以poll公司没用，他们没有发布选择权。
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l***o
发帖数: 7937 | 29 这个poll是南加大一个研究中心做的，还算独立，为了自己的学术声誉也不会作假。
普林斯顿那个华人小丑神经专家那个poll只是他个人的poll，跟普林斯顿无关。 |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 30 这一次美国大选，媒体舆论和POLL机构的数据，完全和现实不符合。
所以，媒体和POLL机构可能骗钱？
也许是民主党和钱党有意花钱让媒体和POLL机构欺骗大众。
也可能是媒体和POLL机构欺诈民主钱党的钱财。
总之，媒体和POLL机构就是一个骗。 |
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l****y
发帖数: 8847 | 31 poll越多的地方越准
midwest有几个州没什么人做poll，老太也不去拉力，都觉得躺赢
national poll和几个战场州经常做poll的就准多了
poll |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 32 英国脱欧公投的时候，Nigel Farage就警告媒体
会利用poll来误导公众舆论。
川普竞选时也说polls是rigged，ABC在竞选前一
星期的poll还把川普定位在落后希拉里十几点，让
为ABC的poll contractor提供raw data的公司莫名其妙，
特别是各个关键州的poll，都在原始数据上做了手脚。
最恶劣的是Gallup和Reuter.
现在没有了选举的检验，他们更加肆无忌惮，把
奥巴马approval rating人为提高了十个百分点，
还是老手法，选用大量非洲裔民调的model。 |
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发帖数: 1 | 33 Big Data beat the polls大数据帮了川普和Brexit
不为人所知的是:Both Brexit Campaign and Trump hired London-based Cambridge
Analytica to help them win.
I. Brexit, Trump and Clinton used this new data
Both the Clinton and Trump campaigns used big data, with Trump hiring the
London-based Cambridge Analytica. The company employs a trademark method
known as “psychographs” that uses psychological profiling to influence
consumers. The company also provided its services to the Brexit campaign.
Both the Trump and the Bre... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 34 坛子职业做poll的那两位都没你们那么扯，真是奇了怪了，丫的在选举人制度下的美国
，头一次听说总统选举看national poll的。从来都只有战场州的state poll定胜负，
选举阵营地推也只关心战场州poll，谁他妈会管national poll的死活？ 好好去看看选
举前最后一次各大战场州民调和实际结果差多少。 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 35 Voters want Congress to pass an immigration bill this year, and most support
the main provisions in the legislation being considered on Capitol Hill.
After a vote on Tuesday, the Senate will now officially begin debate on an
immigration reform bill. The legislation would strengthen border security
and create a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants currently in the
country.
A Fox News poll released Thursday finds that most voters generally favor
those provisions.
The new poll shows 81 per... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 36 Taiwan leader's popularity falls to new low: poll. AFP, Sept. 20, 2008.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hLkE_iStGCBk_SyeQGrbKLwNCsdA
The poll was conducted by TVBS, a television station that is blue and pro-
China. What is interesting is not approval rate dropped below 30 points (DPP
's own polls have shown that), but this is a poll conducted by a blue-
leaning organization. Further, the poll indicated that whatever elevating
effect Pres. Ma gained by launching an investigation on former Pre |
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s**x
发帖数: 7506 | 37 http://news.yahoo.com/poll-latino-vote-devastated-gop-even-wors
Mitt Romney lost Latinos by unprecedented margins -- even worse than the
initial exit polls showed -- according to a study by Latino Decisions.
An election eve poll of 5,600 voters across all 50 states by the group,
which has researched the Latino vote throughout the campaign, concluded
Obama won by an eye-popping 75-23 margin. Their research concluded that CNN'
s exit poll estimate of 71 percent of Latinos breaking to Obama likely
... 阅读全帖 |
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a********e
发帖数: 5779 | 38 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: lczlcz (lcz), 信区: USANews
标 题: Poll: Most Feel Obama’s Presidency a Failure
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 10 19:18:50 2014, 美东)
Warner Todd Huston October 7, 2014
A new poll of how people feel about Obama’s presidency is not good for team
Obama. It appears that most respondents feel his presidency is a failure.
A new IBD/TIPP poll which ended Friday, last week found that 53 percent
characterized Obama as a failed president. This versus only 41 percent who
rated it a succe... 阅读全帖 |
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j***4
发帖数: 3119 | 39 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
jhd74 (刀头老狼) 于 (Wed May 9 00:05:24 2012, 美东) 提到:
投票规则：
1. 一人一票，新老ID一律欢迎
2. Div1 Bowl Division Teams 从No.1 到No.25。如有缺漏，选票作废
3. 截止时间：2012年7月31日 （原6／30已改）
开奖规则：
1. 以coach preseason poll为参照（大约在8月第一周. 没用AP是因为出台太晚）
2. 你所列的每只球队（在选票中的排名 - 在coach poll中的排名）的绝对值做为这支
球队的得分，如果在Coach poll里没有排名，都以26计算。
3. 25支球队的得分总和就是最后得分，得分越小名次越前。
4. Tie breaker: 每张选票前10名球队得分
这几个月光拿工资没干啥，我个人出1000Wb赞助，版面能不能出1000？
奖金：第一名1000， 第二500，第三250, 第四150，第五100
选票template:
NCAAF Rankings
RK ... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 3386 | 40 【 以下文字转载自 EEInvestor 俱乐部 】
发信人: badfish (badfish), 信区: EEInvestor
标 题: YGE to outpeform solar stocks:Poll
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed May 5 16:15:57 2010, 美东)
http://www.thestreet.com/print/story/10745136.html
Yingli Green Energy to Outperform Solar Stocks: Poll
Eric Rosenbaum
05/04/10 - 11:05 AM EDT
NEW YORK (TheStreet -- First Solar(FSLR) provided the first earnings
surprise of the solar season -- but will it be the last surprise, or the
biggest one?
Maybe not, based on the way that shares of JA Sol... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 43 Poll: Rhode Island Voters Support Marriage Equality
By Advocate.com Editors
Rhode Islandx390 (Photos.com) | Advocate.com
A majority of Rhode Island voters support marriage rights for same-sex
couples, according to a new poll.
The study, released on Wednesday by Rhode Island Marriage Coalition, found
that of 502 voters polled, 59% said they supported giving same-sex couples
the right to marry — a 10% increase in support for marriage equality in the
state compared to a 2008 poll on the issue.
"Thi |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 44 Posted on Advocate.com February 29, 2012 11:02:40 AM ET
Poll: Record Support for Marriage in California
By Andrew Harmon
PROP 8 SIGNS (COURTESY) | ADVOCATE.COM
Support for marriage equality in the nation’s most populous state has a
reached a record high, according to a Field Poll released Wednesday.
The poll of about 1,000 California voters finds 59% in favor of marriage
rights for same-sex couples, with 34% opposed.
Field notes:
This division of sentiment is nearly a complete reversal of the fi... 阅读全帖 |
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g********d
发帖数: 4174 | 45 还是谈正事吧，看来会３赢１输，如果是真的，就太TMD的牛了。
http://blog.outtakeonline.com/2012/09/gay-marriage-november-bal
This is a crucial election year for gay marriage with it appearing on the
November ballot in 4 states. Support for gay marriage continues to soar in
Washington State with Referendum 74 advancing 56-38 percent in the latest
SurveyUSA poll of Washington voters. Washington United for Marriage (WUM),
the coalition working to defend the state's marriage law announced that more
than 5,000 new donors helped r... 阅读全帖 |
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g******e
发帖数: 932 | 46 http://www.scragged.com/articles/lies-damned-lies-and-polls.aspx
Mark Twain used to distinguish three categories of untruth - lies, damned
lies, and statistics. Now we come to a new kind of lie - the poll.
In an article "Clinton takes hit in new poll on White House race," Reuters
reports:
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's positive rating has
dropped to a new low of 37 percent in an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll
released on Wednesday. (...)
The survey was taken after Obama gave a |
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t***o
发帖数: 462 | 47 Polls: McCain, Obama even in many Big Ten states
By The Associated Press 51 minutes ago
Results of the Big Ten Battleground Poll, which asked voters in Ohio,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota for
their views on the presidential race.
___
THE POLL: Big Ten Battleground Poll, of 600 randomly selected registered
voters in Ohio (20 electoral votes.)
THE NUMBERS: Obama 46, McCain 45.
OF INTEREST: The state that helped decide the 2004 election in President
Bush's |
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b*d
发帖数: 161 | 48 Newspaper poll shows Obama up 7 points in Ohio
10 hours ago
COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — A new poll suggests Barack Obama has a seven-point
lead over John McCain in Ohio.
The Columbus Dispatch says Sunday that Obama leads 49 percent to 42 percent
among likely voters in the important battleground state.
The newspaper's poll was conducted Sept. 24-Oct. 3 by mail among 2,262
likely Ohio voters. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 2.2
percentage points.
A poll done by the Dispatch in the middle |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 49 华盛顿邮报调查：52%美国人认为，大部分联邦政府雇员薪水太高，只有9%认为大部分
联邦雇员薪水太低
By Lisa Rein and Ed O'Keefe
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, October 18, 2010; 12:57 AM
More than half of Americans say they think that federal workers are overpaid
for the work they do, and more than a third think they are less qualified
than those working in the private sector, according to a Washington Post
poll.
Half also say the men and women who keep the government running do not work
as hard as employees at private companies.
The crit... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 50 By Dana Blanton
Published May 18, 2011
After the killing of Usama bin Laden in Pakistan, few American voters
believe that country is an ally of the United States in the war against
terrorism. Moreover, most doubt Pakistan is worthy of continued U.S. foreign
aid.
That’s according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday.
Nearly three out of four voters -- 73 percent -- say the United States
should stop sending foreign aid until Pakistan demonstrates a deeper
commitment to the war against terrorism. ... 阅读全帖 |
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