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T*********I 发帖数: 10729 | 2 这个7点lead又是怎么回事?
Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump holds a 7-point lead over
rival Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) in Iowa, fueled by first-time GOP caucusgoers,
according to a new poll.
Trump leads Cruz, 31 to 24 percent, in the Quinnipiac poll released Monday
morning.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/iowa-pol |
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m****g 发帖数: 2215 | 3 This poll was taken between 1/25 and 1/31.
Opinion Savvy and Emerson were taken after 1/29, so they are more recent.
But I've never seen Opinion Savvy Iowa poll before.
over |
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r****p 发帖数: 480 | 4 就一个poll而已。再说全国poll在开选后作用基本为零,现在的关键是NH要拿下。 |
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s**p 发帖数: 518 | 9 哈哈现在poll的差距越大,到时候被打脸就越狠。现在的媒体都疯了,不知道是金主在
背后砸钱太狠还是媒体自己最后的疯狂。
非常搞不懂为啥他们没有一点common sense,希望看着美国走下坡路,这样对他们自己
有好处吗?那些金主愿意看到美国变成墨西哥吗?
[在 xykkkk (asdf) 的大作中提到:]
:Cruz, Trump tied in WFAA Texas poll. STORY: https://t.co/vqHmpp02NB #
:WFAAVote
:........... |
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s**p 发帖数: 518 | 10 有没有Texas最新的poll?
[在 merits (honey) 的大作中提到:]
:
:Florida GOP Poll
:........... |
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i**t 发帖数: 3556 | 11 Ted Cruz is leading Donald Trump by 15 percentage points in his home state,
according to a new Monmouth University poll out Thursday.
Cruz has the support of 38 percent of likely GOP primary voters, Trump has
23 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has 21 percent. Rounding out the
Republican presidential field, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson has 6 percent
and Ohio Gov. John Kasich has 5 percent.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Clinton has more than
double the lead over Vermont... 阅读全帖 |
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q*****n 发帖数: 2570 | 14 Exit Poll: 6 In 10 Super Tuesday GOP Voters Support Trump’s Muslim Ban
As the Super Tuesday exit polls roll in, as we have learned on previous
election nights, Donald Trump’s proposal to temporarily ban foreign Muslims
from entering the United States is wildly popular with Republican voters.
Throughout the Super Tuesday states, a full 60% of Republican voters back
the Trump plan. Forty-percent want illegals deported, which is the law.
It is important to keep in mind that after Trump proposed t... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g 发帖数: 2215 | 15 The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted March 1-3 among 2,229 registered
voters.
ARG poll was conducted after the debate.
Trump needs to do something to stop Kasich. |
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l********r 发帖数: 906 | 16 一边是几个poll床铺在佛罗里达二十多个点大规模领先如表,在俄亥俄八,九个点领先
卡西奇;另外几个poll 说床铺只领先如表七八个点,在俄亥俄被卡西奇反超八九个点。
彻底混乱了。看来对床大佬来说,形势还很严峻。 |
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h****g 发帖数: 2216 | 17 MI DEM 的poll 老太领先20个点照样输掉。
现在Poll的意义越来越小了
点。 |
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A**d 发帖数: 13310 | 19 这是典型的spin.他们看大势已去就疯狂造势否认床铺初选已经不可阻挡,给反对床铺
的选民打气表示你们别丧气窝在家里。
超级星期二之前nbc/wsj那个poll更是不惜自毁声誉跳出来说national poll床铺已经掉
到第二。那是个比较极端的例子。
这种心理效应参见每次debate之后所有候选人和他们的spokemen,笔杆子,政客支持者
都要spin说我们的人赢了辩论。也类似于战争时期双方都
夸大宣传自己毙敌多少,美军如何击毙了又一个基地组织三号人物——好多次,本拉登
死之前击毙的从来都是没人听说过的三号而不是四五六。
moveon.
to |
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l**********1 发帖数: 2980 | 20 There is another poll out, taken at approx the same time ( 2 days earlier),
that has a margin of error of 1.1% vs this one at 5.8%, with 6,178
repondents, vs this poll of 478, and shows Mr. Trump in the lead by 4% |
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p*****n 发帖数: 3678 | 21 最可笑的 poll 是说 11 月 Cruz 对阵 hillary 赢面多少, trump 对 hillary 输面
多少。
这些 poll 简直是胡说。 cook 数字也是随手就来啊。 |
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p*****n 发帖数: 3678 | 22 几个 WI 小 sample 的 poll 都是 cruz 领先, 大 sample 的 poll 则是 trump 小幅
领先。
看了 cruz 比较擅长人数很少的党代会。
, |
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h*******u 发帖数: 15326 | 23 如果看左逼的poll,床铺完蛋几百回了,
左逼高潮连连,结果呢?
管你神马鸟poll,老子就是投床铺。 |
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t******g 发帖数: 1815 | 25 感觉怎么一下子把钱都投到WI搞poll
这个州的Poll也太多了吧
想要cook data的意图太明显了 |
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C*******h 发帖数: 6095 | 26 造假polls目的是为后边偷票后克鲁兹赢威州的结果做铺垫。克鲁兹要是赢了就可以说
你看之前polls都是这么说的,所以我们没作假。
★ 发自iPhone App: ChineseWeb 1.0.6 |
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h****n 发帖数: 3447 | 28 Poll还没结束,exit poll都出来了。到底是媒体有预知能力呢,还是其它什么。哦,
有可能没有人在最后的40分钟投票吧。只能这么解释了。 |
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h****n 发帖数: 3447 | 29 好了,我想我的帖子已经解释的很清楚了,我以为这个exit poll是专门用来结束以后
才公布的,原因在于看cnn和foxnews从来都不提前,都是最后那刻公布。大概那个时候
抽样最有代表。
没想到这个词大家用它的字面意思。这次应该解释清楚了吧。尤其这个帖子发的点让人
以为poll结束了呢。 |
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m****g 发帖数: 2215 | 30 The Hill reported: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is ahead
by 9 points in Indiana ahead of the state's Tuesday primary, according to a
poll released Friday.
Trump has 41 percent support among likely GOP primary voters, the American
Research Group poll found, followed by Ted Cruz, at 32 percent, and John
Kasich, at 21 percent.
Trump is the top choice among the solely self-reported Republicans surveyed,
taking 42 percent compared to 34 percent for Cruz and 17 percent for Kasich
. |
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m****g 发帖数: 2215 | 31 Yes, be cautious.
The IPFW/Downs Center democratic poll is included in RCA.
But the IPFW/Downs Center republican poll is not. |
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w********0 发帖数: 1211 | 32 这几天怎么一会儿这个poll说cruz领先,一会儿那个poll说唐老床领先,而且还都是两
位数百分点的领先。怎么可能相差这么多? |
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c********e 发帖数: 4283 | 33 NBC/WSJ一直是在low ball老床的, 这次说他领先Cruz 15个点。
:这几天怎么一会儿这个poll说cruz领先,一会儿那个poll说唐老床领先,而且还都是
两位数百分点的领先。怎么可能相差这么多? |
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m********r 发帖数: 322 | 34 今天早晨刚收到的 email。注册了无党派的也可以去投川普。但不知劳模们会不会也去
捣乱。
June 7, 2016
Important Election Information
For the June 7, 2016 Presidential Primary Election, the American Independent
, Democratic and Libertarian parties have allowed "crossover" voting. Vote
By Mail voters who are registered as No-Party Preference and want to vote
for one of those three respective parties can do so, but will first need to
fill out a "crossover" ballot request. Voters who will be voting at the
polls and are registered as No-Party... 阅读全帖 |
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w******g 发帖数: 2047 | 35 Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by double digits in a hypothetical
general election match-up, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released
Friday.
Forty-six percent of voters say they'll back Clinton, a Democrat, while 35
percent say they'll vote for Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee
. Nineteen percent said they won't vote for either candidate.
The poll surveyed 1,421 voters between May 30 and June 3. |
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i**********k 发帖数: 5274 | 36 这个Reuters/Ipsos poll,是F级的,也好意思拿出来现眼。realclearpolitics都不
愿意包含这个poll。 |
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i***a 发帖数: 4718 | 37 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0YP2EX
Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-
digit lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, regaining ground after the
New York billionaire briefly tied her last month, according to a Reuters/
Ipsos poll released on Friday.
The shift in support comes as Clinton steps up her attacks on the real
estate mogul's policy positions, and as Trump fends off criticisms of his
eponymous university and the pace at... 阅读全帖 |
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v*******e 发帖数: 11604 | 38 初选各个州poll床铺都落后,最后投票大幅领先。
到现在还信poll的都是傻逼,那些东西是媒体的洗脑工具。 |
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A**d 发帖数: 13310 | 39 里面就有这么无耻的问题, are you bothered by Trump's use of words like "pigs"
to describe women? 这都是push poll那样下三滥的手段,犹太猪顾不上一点声誉直
接上阵泼粪还自称是poll |
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A**d 发帖数: 13310 | 40 key point是你连poll的结果可以轻易通过问题细节操作这种常识都不懂。追求准确客
观的poll会很小心的消除这些偏差。bloomberg这个下贱犹太猪是故意直接引导调查结
果再进一步操纵选民 |
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l****d 发帖数: 1593 | 41 可惜他们不知道,越是这样,越会激起Trump支持者出来投票,今年不是事不关己,高
高挂起的一年
: key point是你连poll的结果可以轻易通过问题细节操作这种常识都不懂。追求
准确客
: 观的poll会很小心的消除这些偏差。bloomberg这个下贱犹太猪是故意直接引导
调查结
: 果再进一步操纵选民
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l****d 发帖数: 1593 | 42 可不是,我们的director说到transgender 厕所啥的(我们有一个T),赶紧先检查每个
门关好没,给我说如果他说任何不合适的话都会给部门带来大麻烦,你觉得他会在poll
里说什么,估计找他他也不会去做这个poll。不说他们的问题是否bias,就是这个测试
人群我都不相信它的代表性。
: 我们同事出去吃饭,聊到厕所话题,一边说这个政策荒唐,一边压低嗓门,警惕
地四处
: 看。
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g****n 发帖数: 7494 | 43 说到poll
之前的poll还一直显示州长是唯一可以击败老婊子的人呢
想到这里,明白人笑笑走开就好了,不必太纠缠,注意让身边的人不要被猪党洗脑就可
以了 |
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l****d 发帖数: 1593 | 44 左派的行为是最好的anti-brainwash medicin
: 说到poll
: 之前的poll还一直显示州长是唯一可以击败老婊子的人呢
: 想到这里,明白人笑笑走开就好了,不必太纠缠,注意让身边的人不要被猪党洗
脑就可
: 以了
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k*********l 发帖数: 1218 | 45 上个星期的文章,什么是大数据,就是大量的,没有经过人工处理,随机的数据,
trump是否能赢你要看下面的几个数据:
1)各大social network网络的follower数据
2)一些重要新闻的comments,和like,dislike的数据
3) search 的关键词的出现频率,这个我们拿不到,只有google有
4)各地rally参加的人数,老妖婆参加的人数多少,trump有多少
poll在信息发达的今天,已经没有多大用处了,只有大数据才能给给正确的方向。
还有就是不要被媒体brain wash,多用logic thinking,这次对gay的袭击
1)FL是最重要的swing state,想想看普通人会怎么投票
2)LGBT全面导向谁?
3)妇女导向谁
4)黑人会导向谁
Poll和各大媒体都是noise,有时候可以当作反指,越是抹黑谁,说明谁越有可能赢(
但是不是所有时候,因为媒体最重要的就是引起争议,所以更多的时候是充当了挑起战
火的脚色,所以就是noise)
----------------
发信人: katharinezl (linlin), 信区: USANews... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 46 所谓大数据是说样本量大,随机性高,能够接近反映种群的基本属性。你举的数据都是
biased,只代表种群小部分,就是数据再大也无法反映种群的总体。种群里还有大量的
人对政治不狂热,没时间上网,没兴趣争辩。
[在 katharinezl (linlin) 的大作中提到:]
:上个星期的文章,什么是大数据,就是大量的,没有经过人工处理,随机的数据,
:trump是否能赢你要看下面的几个数据:
:1)各大social network网络的follower数据
:poll在信息发达的今天,已经没有多大用处了,只有大数据才能给给正确的方向。
:还有就是不要被媒体brain wash,多用logic thinking,这次对gay的袭击
:1)FL是最重要的swing state,想想看普通人会怎么投票
:Poll和各大媒体都是noise,有时候可以当作反指,越是抹黑谁,说明谁越有可能赢(
:但是不是所有时候,因为媒体最重要的就是引起争议,所以更多的时候是充当了挑起
战火的脚色,所以就是noise)
:我相信,google,华尔街,大佬们(背后的PAC),包括白宫,fbi,cia通过对数据的
解读... 阅读全帖 |
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k*********l 发帖数: 1218 | 47 11/9 recap:
hehe, I need to get a summary of all my predication of this election.
1) since the primary is done, I have predict WI and MI is very sure win
state. PA will be very close to watch, NH is very close to watch. (did not
publish this vsion, but based on the votes data, it is very obvious)
2) I think FL must have some fraud going on. The race should not be that
close. FL should be a very clear win.
This is all based on the big data. Big data can be very very valuable.
Because of that and ... 阅读全帖 |
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发帖数: 1 | 48 所谓大数据是说样本量大,随机性高,能够接近反映种群的基本属性。你举的数据都是
biased,只代表种群小部分,就是数据再大也无法反映种群的总体。种群里还有大量的
人对政治不狂热,没时间上网,没兴趣争辩。
[在 katharinezl (linlin) 的大作中提到:]
:上个星期的文章,什么是大数据,就是大量的,没有经过人工处理,随机的数据,
:trump是否能赢你要看下面的几个数据:
:1)各大social network网络的follower数据
:poll在信息发达的今天,已经没有多大用处了,只有大数据才能给给正确的方向。
:还有就是不要被媒体brain wash,多用logic thinking,这次对gay的袭击
:1)FL是最重要的swing state,想想看普通人会怎么投票
:Poll和各大媒体都是noise,有时候可以当作反指,越是抹黑谁,说明谁越有可能赢(
:但是不是所有时候,因为媒体最重要的就是引起争议,所以更多的时候是充当了挑起
战火的脚色,所以就是noise)
:我相信,google,华尔街,大佬们(背后的PAC),包括白宫,fbi,cia通过对数据的
解读... 阅读全帖 |
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g********2 发帖数: 6571 | 49 我从来不关心poll,也就是说,poll不影响我支持谁,反对谁。
如果我认为谁的理念不对,那么即便全世界都支持他,我也不会支持。
如果我认为谁的理念正确,那么即便全世界都不支持他,我也会支持。 |
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b*****d 发帖数: 61690 | 50 Hillary Clinton has a comfortable lead over Donald Trump nationally and in
the battleground states that will be critical in determining the outcome of
the presidential election, a new poll finds.
A Monmouth University survey released Monday shows Clinton with 47 percent
support to Trump's 40 percent among registered voters nationally.
Among likely voters, Clinton’s lead increases to 8 points, 49 percent to 41
percent.
Clinton also leads by 8 points, 47 percent to 39 percent, in the 10
battlegro... 阅读全帖 |
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