B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 1 It is just sector rotation, and sector rotation always overshoot in this
inefficient market. Do not chase high on hype, because you may well become
the last one in a rally towards the peak. |
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c***1
发帖数: 3281 | 2 2009，2010这些我是可以理解的。尤其是2009那次。那是刚从百年一见的熊市起来，人
们人心惶惶，两边急拉，volatility大是可以理解的。
2011年已经算是牛市的第二，三年了，不应该是那么overshoot的。
anyway, 基于这已经是经济周期的第二，三年在FA上面是很多弱点的，不过我尊重technicals |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 4 even my sell point could've been a bit too low. this guy always overshoots r
esistances. |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 5 will push 120--125. my guess is we'll more likely see 125 as this guy always
overshoots resistance. |
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v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 6 这里可能撑不住，应该见到75。这厮always overshoot support/resistance |
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w*********i
发帖数: 3092 | 7 Somebody is gambling for an overshoot.
lol |
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j*****l
发帖数: 440 | 8 看来弄到一起去了！
实质就是当中的5000亿欧元买债券救市，应当是个好消息。
BRUSSELS | Thu Dec 8, 2011 11:30pm EST
(Reuters) - European Union leaders sealed a new fiscal pact ensuring tougher
budget discipline but failed to agree on a treaty change to enshrine the
rules, meaning a deal may now involve the 17 euro zone nations plus any
others that want to join, diplomats said.
An agreement involving all 27 EU members fell through - raising the prospect
of a two-speed Europe - after British Prime Minister David Cameron demanded
conce... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 9 1. Housing activity has picked up considerably. The housing sector is an
important “leading sector” with a profound impact on the overall economy,
as the financial crisis made plain. Housing starts are up nearly 25% year-
over-year; in summer 2011 they were still in the doldrums and some
forecasters worried about a major “double-dip” in housing prices.
2. Oil prices look less threatening. Although oil prices have gyrated
considerably this year, on net the price of Brent crude is little c... 阅读全帖 |
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g******o
发帖数: 4042 | 10 From a longer-term technical perspective, while the January through
September 2012 timeframe was extremely exciting and potentially very
rewarding for AAPL investors, my pattern and momentum work now are warning
me that the "easy money" is behind us. Moreover, my work indicates AAPL is
in the early stages of a net declining period that points to the 530 area as
its optimal target zone, with an "emotional downside overshoot" target zone
in the vicinity of 470 to 450 in the weeks and months direct... 阅读全帖 |
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r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 11 下周一有可能，还有可能overshoot到410。 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 12
...................................
Then it is overbought, and you should wait for it to exhaust.
You can do this by drawing an uptrend line, and do not sell
or short, until the uptrend line is broken (i.e. price goes
through or crosses the uptrend line). When that happens,
price has just peaked and you'll be selling or shorting very
close to the true peak. Keep lots of cash for such overshoot
situations, both upside and downside, so that you can take
full advantage of the artificially created... 阅读全帖 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 13 股市总是overshoot，不论上涨还是下跌。 |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 14 AS BULLSOLAR SAID, ANY TREND CAN BE OVERSHOOTING. need to wait for the
bottom forming to jump in. otherwise, just a falling knife...LOL
1100 |
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i******r
发帖数: 1175 | 15 Cloud revenue is puny amount in AMZN's book (4/70), less than %6 of amazon's
business. For cloud revenue, even apply the nose bleeding multiples to
similar growth companies like 'DATA, SPLK', cloud business still just worth
around 30B-40B (yet: already 2-3 lenovos!).
AMZN has 120B-130B market cap on the low margin business. AMZN total
cap including cloud business should be worth around 100B.
Even given premiums of AMZN shares normally it commands, it should be around
$200/share. While Wall St st... 阅读全帖 |
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m****r
发帖数: 5435 | 16
yes，sir。way overshoot 。
bad news，apply too。 |
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l***o
发帖数: 5337 | 17 我觉得这种overshooting是人之常情。其实你看看goog和纳斯达克的对比，即使从10月
ER的跳空以后算，goog也不比大盘落后。 |
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l***o
发帖数: 5337 | 18 大盘并没有怎么跌，所以调整的主题是挤泡沫，主要被砍的是social network,互联网
，3d打印，big data，biotech，电车，太阳能一类前段时间的大热门。而且是这几个
板块玉石俱焚，好的跌20%，倒霉的腰斩膝盖斩。
这种挤泡沫，肯定会误伤真正有growth potential的好公司。尤其是有几个领域其实泡
沫一下本来是有道理的，而且泡沫其实可能也不太大，一旦被挤，就是反方向
overshooting了。
本世纪初高科技泡沫破灭时，很多好公司都被误伤，包括 amazon，yahoo，ibm 等。但
毕竟hitech是好行业，有vision会管理的公司还是爬起来了。这次泡沫不大，应该不需
要等上次那么久。
问题是怎么找被误伤的公司呢？tsla？amzn？还是fb？这个要看每个人的眼光了。
总之，感觉对判断力好，对行业了解深的投资者，机会来了。 |
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X****i
发帖数: 1877 | 19 Remember, always use trend lines to help pinpoint true peak or bottom
Forecast figures are approximate and get you to the neighborhood of final
number in most cases. So there is still some margin of error but you can
eliminate most of it via intelligent use of trend lines.
All price overshoots vs forecast numbers are gifts.
For example GLD gapped up, and trended higher on June 19, 2014. So uptrend
line will keep you from selling or shorting too soon.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GLD+Inter... 阅读全帖 |
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t***l
发帖数: 3644 | 20 上次写了一篇大势分析基本都说对了，8月份前哪有crash，不可能嘛对不对？
3年前我还是青蛙的时候看郎教授写了篇大势判断的三要素，经济怎么样？fed支持怎么
样？还有个啥不记得了，不过也没关系了，自成体系才能成大师不是吗？嘿嘿。
言归正传，上次就说了美国经济是太好了，被低估了，你们看看经济数据，你们看看这
个季度的ER，好日子一眼望不到头啊。青蛙先别高兴，经济好不代表股市要涨对吧？
先说说现在最关键的是啥吧。现在股市能保持强势的根基是fed funds rates的hike预
期还是明年中，而且看不到很大的inflation威胁，主要是wage growth太慢了，穷人消
费不起哪来什么inflation。但如果随着经济持续起速，就业持续变好，inflation的短
期overshoot也就越来越可能，这样fed funds rate的hike预期会大步向前，对股市和
债市都会产生极大的负面影响。
这里给个个人观点吧，看2,3个月的timeframe，现在处于这波从2月初上来的rally的比
较后期的向上阶段，我觉得SPX2000是要上的，2050也不是没有可能的，大概从这里也
就剩了... 阅读全帖 |
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J**********D
发帖数: 160 | 21 Prediction is futile, I don't think I know the future but this bull market
has lasted since 2008, it might have more legs, of course it can overshoot
itself, but at least be wary somewhat. |
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l***o
发帖数: 5337 | 22 我同意大夫说的这一点：A股之烂，任何一个在中国股市混过的人都能说上三天三夜，
各种传言骇人听闻，更糟糕的是其中大部分都是真的。。。但我还是认为A股很有机会
，因为如果A股的市场和制度都像美股一样好，按照市盈率，上证应该在4300点左右，
再考虑到中国增长迅速和高储蓄率的特点，5000点也绝对正常。在加上文化上的羊群效
应明显，一旦启动，会有让人瞠目结舌的overshooting，所以现在的价格，已经在很大
程度上把A股之烂包括进去了。
我觉得现在对A股的一个大威胁是H股。A股对H股有很大的溢价，而且沪港通已经启动，
这个溢价很难解释。所以对唱好A股的人（比如我）来说，H股真是所谓‘不咬人各应人
’，明摆着展示着A股的泡沫，除非你认为港股是大错特错的。而我现在倾向认为，港
股错了的可能性比较大，因此我进了很多我认为被低估的H股，并同时盯着A股指数和热
点。
从长期来看，A股不改革，现在的这批散户不死光，A股的前途好不到哪里去，但对于只
想贱买贵卖的我们来说，我觉得机会还是很好的。 |
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a****g
发帖数: 3027 | 23 仅仅用这个股票做个例子，其他股票也很类似：
这个股票，2014年，甚至几个月前，股票都挺高的，大家还想买涨？最见几天，跌得挺
狠的，威慑么大家都不敢买？
有些理由：比如生产过剩，价格战确实存在。 问题是，从稍微长期的眼光看，这些理
由，两个月前和现在有难道有多大区别？股票高的时候这个理由就不存在影响了？
还是股票各家，就是庄家吸钱，各种消息满天飞，玩心里战术？股票市场就是一直
overshoot/undershoot来炒来炒去？ |
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r*********e
发帖数: 7733 | 24 62,63很强的support 。不排除overshoot一下。 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 25 你说得没错，不过amzn一向overshoot，当年也是option expiration最后一天，盘末
110，第二天生生从99涨到120. |
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a*******m
发帖数: 14194 | 26 美联储正式加息。
Federal Reserve raises key interest rate for first time in nearly a decade
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/12/16/federal-reserve-
likely-to-raise-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-decade/
Federal Reserve raises key interest rate for first time in nearly a decade
Resize Text Print Article Comments 0
By Ylan Q. Mui December 16 at 2:00 PM
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen (Photo by Matt McClain/ The Washington
Post)
The Federal Reserve voted Wednesday to raise in... 阅读全帖 |
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t******e
发帖数: 2504 | 28 当时的分析依据。
在a点，$30左右，俺的山寨波浪，无论是大的波，还是小的波，都数到5浪， 小5浪还
在它的通道上，而且交易量在累积，所以判断反弹在即。
为什么同意tallbigup的可能往下延伸$2到$28, 那就是b点嘛，正好在大的下降通道上
，大家都知道，在趋势内，走势往往要走足。实际上，不仅走到位， 而且还overshoot
一些。
反弹目标至少$32.2, 就是图上的1h线， 如果弹的猛，max目标可能在$38.3， 就是图
上1H线。
反弹模式，最差是2-3周的折叠的旗型，就是A; 或者是较积极的反弹B1，甚至B2。
从目前的初步发展情况看，俺个人倾向于B1/B2 with target around 1H.
至少在2周内，是pullback buy. |
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s****n
发帖数: 485 | 29 期货就是这样，很少猪很长时间，因为杠杆高，很容易就overshoot，单边疯涨疯跌。
跌到40就该停了，结果期货交易搞到26，涨到50左右就该停下，但是估计期货会搞到60
，赌的人多了，80不是没可能 |
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u*****3
发帖数: 257 | 30 may have to visit the open of the week 212.4
overshoot a little, bounce around, and decide a bull bar or bear bar for
this week |
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b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 31 加息利好金融，是IWM的主力。
现在的问题是有点overshoot。
[在 soupman (Soupman returns!) 的大作中提到：]
:加息呢？ |
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t******e
发帖数: 673 | 32 The index price does not follow a mean reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
Contrary to Naive experience.
SPX, NDX are not stationary, nor Markovian.
However the index log return are approximately stationary and Gaussian.
If we assume the index log return follows Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The
return will catch up to historical means and likely overshoot.
Given the low return 2014-2016, 2000-2016. This is a volatility breakout and
we must catch the train. |
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E*******1
发帖数: 3464 | 33 是啊，人家手上没有卡发了呀。。。不过这次visa bulletin最后留了一手，在说明4月
之后为何关门（这段和去年一个意思）的下一段，
Should the level of worldwide demand for E1 numbers decline, there could be
some future movement in this date prior to the end of the fiscal year.
就是说万一其他国家没啥人占坑，咱们还是有可能在10月前重新开的
这么细想，有人不是分析了到目前为止发卡的数量吗，好像和去年同期持平，那为啥早
两个月关门？我估计是去年关晚了，险些数量失控，所以今年保守了，关的早点不让
overshoot，但是如果之后有余粮，说不定还能早开个一个月
Anyway，无伤大局，绿卡还是不要wishiful thinking，该干嘛干嘛吧 |
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m*******n
发帖数: 5103 | 34 民主制度的可貴，不在於不會出錯，而在於有修正的機會。就像一個自動控制的電路，
或自動導航的飛彈，民主制度永遠在根據民意而修正自己，有時候會過度修正而偏離目
標 (overshoot)，但其軌跡大致是正確的，不會偏離太遠。這種偵測修正的行為不是因
為個人的喜好或信仰，而是白紙黑字的法律。
所以台式民主雖然會出現各式各樣的亂象，但總體來說，不會偏離目標太遠，而且可以
持久。 |
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m*******n
发帖数: 5103 | 35 民主制度的可貴，不在於不會出錯，而在於有修正的機會。就像一個自動控制的電路，
或自動導航的飛彈，民主制度永遠在根據民意而修正自己，有時候會過度修正而偏離目
標 (overshoot)，但其軌跡大致是正確的，不會偏離太遠。這種偵測修正的行為不是因
為個人的喜好或信仰，而是白紙黑字的法律。
所以台式民主雖然會出現各式各樣的亂象，但總體來說，不會偏離目標太遠，而且可以
持久。 |
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r****t
发帖数: 10904 | 36 【 以下文字转载自 Living 讨论区 】
发信人: ahchzg (goingwithwind), 信区: Living
标 题: Re: 求祝福，跟cash offer抢一个房子--update
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Feb 11 21:20:15 2013, 美东)
I have tracked marketing since late Dec 2008, and closed the house in early
2012.
In March 2009, the market crashed, and the lowest point was hit.
For the rest of the year, the Obama passed incentive for buyers, the house
market recovered a little bit.
In 2010, it was still kind of cold, but the house market was kind of stable.
In 2011, the house ma... 阅读全帖 |
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a***e
发帖数: 27968 | 37 God:
sorry. overshoot
--send from my iphone |
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j********1
发帖数: 628 | 38 He is funny. a few gems:
Kobe Bryant is now on Twitter. I wonder how many tweets he can force in a 48
minute time frame. I'm sure a lot.
Lakers season is like the end of Empire Strikes Back. Things are bleak.
Difference is if Kobe lost his hand like Luke, he'd still overshoot.
Lakers should change their name to the Kardashians with the way they are
letting the Nuggets score at will.
Kobe & the Lakers are getting Colorado'd right now
If Kobe could swallow his pride the Lakers could get it togethe... 阅读全帖 |
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m**********g
发帖数: 188 | 39 谢谢3F姐姐的鼓励！以前我潜水的时候最常看的就是你在weightlift版的锻炼记录，去
年7月到11月中也一直坚持跑步来着，后来因为seasonal depression没有能够继续，都
不好意思去看你的帖子了。
我抑郁的那阵子完全没有称体重，不知不觉胖了很多，现在大概有点overshoot的样子。 |
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t******3
发帖数: 4053 | 40 when RW3 is on run, you're not going to catch him or hit him, just try to
contain him or disturb his throw on the run.
Defenders made mistakes way too much. |
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t******3
发帖数: 4053 | 42
the two OLB shall seal the edge, rather than chase RW3 when he's scrambling.
Let others press on him. |
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g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 43 同意大师。
我觉得对海鹰防守就是stack the box。俩OLB不要pass rush，把edge set好，欺负他
们没有deep threat/单打能摆脱的，不give up big play，逼着海鹰一个一个1st down
march down field。
RW3真不容易，带着这群路人甲闯关。
scrambling. |
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z*i
发帖数: 58873 | 44 刚才edge set住了。 但是中间压力不够，然后rw3舒舒服服传个首攻。。。。
pressure是没错的。 错的是后面的二线看不住人。 传的都是空的没人管的。
down |
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g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 45 感觉海鹰几乎每个big play都是broken play。RW3 improvise on the run。
你真给他常规好武器，他不一定能打的很好，没有什么pre-snap阅读能力。和Luck/龙
哥完全不是一类QB。
Kap就不提了。
down |
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g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 46 一个没关系，他能连续这样string 5-6个first down？
纸上谈兵。别当真。 |
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z*i
发帖数: 58873 | 47 所以set edge没用。 要减少他出手时间，不管怎样。
没人在跑动中比在box里仍的准。 |
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z*i
发帖数: 58873 | 48 box不破他肯定能。
还是那句话，他跑动中扔的别人跑动中准不说明他跑动中比自己呆在box里扔的准 |
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g*******s
发帖数: 2828 | 49 我的point是海鹰的WR/TE靠自己跑不出空挡。他们wide open的big play都是RW3
scramble让防守失位造成的。 |
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z*i
发帖数: 58873 | 50 二线防守失位的最终原因我觉得还是他持球时间长。
所以我就要减少他的持球时间。 set edge毕竟导致中间压力不足，减少不了他的持球
时间。 |
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