p***l
发帖数: 1775 | 1 假设A，B，C和D 4个玩家打升级，AC对家，BD对家。现在A坐庄，发牌顺序是A->B->C->D 108张牌被随机的分成了四摞，第一摞33张，第二，三及四摞各是25张，分别分给了A，B，C，D。（这与实际发牌每人轮流抽取一张过程略有不同，但结果一样）
我们主要讨论庄家A的副牌KK被旁家，比方说D的相应副牌AA抓到的概率。假设现在黑桃是主，选一门副牌讨论，比方说红桃，这里主要涉及三个概率：
1，A拿到红桃KK的概率是多少，即 P(A有红桃KK)
2，A拿到红桃kk同时D有红桃AA的概率是多少，即 P(A有红桃KK且D有红桃AA)
3，在已知A有红桃kk的情况下，D拿到红桃AA的概率是多少，即 P(D有红桃AA|A有红桃KK)
第一个概率可以很简单的推导出来。P(A有红桃KK)=(106 choose 31)/(108 choose 33)=0.0913811
关于2，3，可以用简单的simulation计算具体概率。具体步骤如下：
1.把1-108（对应着108张牌）这108个数随机排列一下，第1-33个数分给A，第34-58个数分给B，第59-83个数分给C，第84-108个数分给D... 阅读全帖 |
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C*****H
发帖数: 7927 | 2 夏天到了，可能是空调开得冷了点儿，这阵子小手冰凉，不单手气差强人意，
打牌的时候更经常发生手抖的情况。
手抖了，就抢不上庄，更严重的是，手抖了，可能把对子拆了，
或者甚至拖拉机卸了轮子开出去，
最近，我就发生了两次手一抖把kk给拆了的情况。其中的一次完全是狗屎运，
造成大喜剧的结果，没什么参考价值，不值得借鉴。
而另一次，细想起来，却颇隽永深刻，值得回味，故录场景如下：
第一个狗血case是和熟人对家，过程几可视为有作弊嫌疑。
本人的废柴庄, 下家敌人用俩小王反得无主, turn out上家俩大王, 我对家三个三,
我四个3。
片和红桃看着不错, 裸了花kk, 和黑10, 其他花和黑下了底
一上来本来要冲花kk的, 手一抖, 一张k出去了, 正懊恼, 对家竟然加了5分
心下甚喜, 接着又一个k, 这次对家花A接过去, 打了一张红心A
喜滋滋的逃了红心10, 红我有对Q, 对9, 另一小对, 没有AK.
然后对家又出另一个花A, 又喜滋滋逃掉黑10. 然后草花回手, 开始打我的片套
AA, 1010, 66, 都大了, 剩俩片了, 看见对家贴了红k, 10,
于是放心又打红对, 又都大... 阅读全帖 |
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p****r
发帖数: 9164 | 3 well played.
I only folded KK once for below 200 BB effective in live game. He showed
AA.
But for deeper stack, I do not 4 bet with KK often.
re-shoved all in and had both covered. sb QQ, bb didn't show. Turn was Q.
luckily still made 55$ from the deeper stack.. hehe.. the original raiser 是
个棒子， 他说他是JJ. big mistake to tell me what he has, 这是后话。
筹码， 棒子比我多。 我3 bet 45. lp calls. 棒子over shove all in. 我想了大该
20 秒， 轻松fold 掉。 lp, 把牌开开， 是QQ, 磨磨唧唧， 说不能fold, 我偷笑，
我KK 都fold 了。 call. 棒子show AA. 他问我是... 阅读全帖 |
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d******u
发帖数: 385 | 4 I was at button holding 4d5d, nice hand for position play. SO I raised to $
12. SB immediately raised to $32. All limpers folded. I thought she might
have QQ/KK/AA. OK let's see the flop.
flop comes: A84 rainbow.
She lead out $35, since A on the board, I thought she might hold QQ/KK. She
would not 3bet back with AK. So I decided to represent I had the A. I smooth
called here.
Turn: J
She checked. OK, she had QQ/KK for sure. what's the bet she will not call me
? I had only $150 left. I bet $65 wi... 阅读全帖 |
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g****w
发帖数: 82 | 5 冲KK，到底啥概率啊？
请公布正确答案，我数学是体育老师教的，别欺负我。
我是这么解的，这里只是考虑AA的分布，至于对家或者边家不下AA的情况不予考虑：
AA分布应该是：上上，对对，下下，上对，上下，对下（指上家，下家和对家）
所以，KK大的几率1/2，KK被敌人抓的几率1/3，KK跑掉的几率2/3
解法有啥问题请指正！
另外不认为老邢在KK被抓的几率上偏离理论值，人们都只记住自己被抓的时候，典型的
巫师第一法则。不信的话有心人来统计一下 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 6 no, your EV calc is flawed because you over simply the situations and don't
take implied odds into account at all.
your model is based on all bettings are done preflop, then KK win xx.xx% in
situation A, and yy.yy% in B, ... etc.
remember long time ago i asked a question from alan's book (poker winners
are different), if you got AA and go all-in pre-flop, how many callers do
you want? the rationally correct answer, 9 or all of them. your EV calc is
exactly based on the same theory.
but implied o... 阅读全帖 |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 7 如果对手3 bet 只有KK, AA, 当然 不能4 bet, 这样估计fold KK也没错， 除非你set farming, 那你用任何pokcet pair 都能call 3 bet.
如果对手3 bet 有QQ JJ AK 之类， 4 bet 和 flat都可, 但理由不同, flat 是为了keep all his range alive for value in late street. 4 bet 是 for immediate value, 没有对错, 看对手preflop 和post flop 的calling range 而论。 deep stack 更无所谓了, 4 bet 后300bb deep 就SPR 而论也变成short stack 了。 当然这也和你的image 有关， 如果你自己只3 bet AA KK, 那你4 bet 了也不会有action 除了AA, KK, 那当然不4 bet. |
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g**s
发帖数: 1114 | 8 both LP and MM can fold this. The only hand of 棒子 could have is AA/KK.
Push 700+ all-in with just 100+ in pot? was he panic? he does not play deep
stack well.
what would MM do if 棒子 4 bet with around 150? 100 on top? this also
introduces the lp shove/commit and MM will be the sandwich... lol
re-shoved all in and had both covered. sb QQ, bb didn't show. Turn was Q.
luckily still made 55$ from the deeper stack.. hehe.. the original raiser 是
个棒子， 他说他是JJ. big mistake to tell me what he has, 这是后话。
筹... 阅读全帖 |
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p***l
发帖数: 1775 | 9 顶一下
总算有个人认真的看了一下我的帖子，热泪盈眶啊
多谢你的改进
个人觉得改进后计算出的概率更有指导意义
解释下楼上code运行结果里的三个概率分别是
P(A有红桃KK同时外面有家有红桃AA)
P(A有红桃KK且A无红A)
P(外面有家有红桃AA|A有红桃KK且A无红A)
最后一个概率是33%左右，也就是说，当你坐庄，一门牌有kk无a的时候，外面有aa的可
能性可是33%哦 |
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M****J
发帖数: 2908 | 10 古董張：永兆、炒手「KK」，把神探吵醒了！
http://no1.168abc.net/asp/board/board_detail.asp?board_sn=1965147
炒股再見！
昨天所談「合機炒作案」是一個攻守俱佳的勝利大結局，但是這樣漂亮的一局棋，其實
是七分努力三分運氣的。做主力的人，其實也常常要面對敗局，「永兆炒作案」的結局
，就是一塌糊塗。今天我們也一起來研究，「永兆炒作案」的致命要害究竟在哪裡。
糊塗主力 擺個大烏龍
「永兆炒作案」的原始動機其實無可厚非，當初是因為永兆公司要發行可轉債，因此大
股東希望拉抬股價出脫持股換現金，再用現金認購可轉債來挹注營運資金。簡單講，大
股東就是想用賣股票的錢認購可轉債而已，沒想到竟被一個糊塗大主力擺個烏龍，變造
成一個炒作案，害得董事長也被判刑。
其實當初永兆公司並沒有炒作的意思，但是綽號「KK」的主力陳浚堂，不但想要點火炒
作，而且竟然跟永兆公司簽訂炒股合約，真是天才！早知道他是這麼愚蠢的天才，我當
初就應該離他遠一點！
光是這樣就已經夠嗆的了，沒想到「KK」還可以把事情搞得更複雜，他找四海幫的黑道
人物配合鎖單，又去找立委吳光 |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 11 if you are going to fold a big reraise with KK, you'd better limp with KK,
so you can call a raise and try to hit trips, hehe. man, you played KK
like I am playing 88...
pocket QQ, should not do this( unless he play very loose).If I call, he is
likely to bet like 10-15 times BB on flop( no matter he was AA or QQ), and
that would be tough for me to : Was I wrong? |
|
t***k
发帖数: 57 | 12 how deep are you with the vilian?
how can you fold a KK for only like 100BB?
if the opponent reraise range has KK, AA, AKs or AKo, you still has 47/53
equity with your KK.
I guess you did not play online 6max. online even AK is a default all in
hand for 100bb. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 13 hehe, i folded KK once on $100 raise on flop (no ace), the other guy showed
f**king KK on the river!!
but, that's the only time i folded "wrong", other few times i folded my AA,
KK, QQ, all turned up as good fold.
and |
|
W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 14 first hand, as played. I think i will check raise flop and call shove all in
. The hand that he could raise with are AK KK QQ maybe Js plus some rags and
suited connector. You are way ahead of his range. you flat his reraise.
what does he put you on? definitely not KK AA. He is betting out strong when
you shown weakness. Time to go broke here. But I would 4 bet preflop.
Second hand raise is good but i would not reraise all in unless you just
want to bluff him out of KK and don't want to get val |
|
p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 15 first I don't know about the commitment threshold here, my guess is
that we are not committed yet. if that is the case, then we can play
it in a simple way and still win some money.
consider the ATdd KK 99 77 case, if KK fold on Axx flop and get it in
on any other flops, ATdd get it in on Axx flop and fold otherwise,
99/77 only get it in if flop a set; then KK show a decent profit,
assuming every1 has $100 left, the pot is $120 preflop. I am not sure
my number is right, anyway here it goes:
Axx ... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 16 when you calculate your ev preflop, you should not consider special cases of
which cards will be dealt. The unconditional odds is useful there because
there is no condition exit yet (the cards has not been dealt yet). You
should have a plan post flop for different board texture and action, but
that should not impact your way of thinking preflop. When you change your
play because you are worried about certain board texture, you are doing it
wrong. Because the unconditional odds already covered ... 阅读全帖 |
|
p**********1
发帖数: 1458 | 17 very good point about keeping villain's whole range when we are ahead. I
oversimplified the betting rounds to make the calc easier. so, by betting
gradually on non-ace flops, we could possibly get 99/77 to stack off.
therefore, we got much more than $90 in the "others 55%" case. villains will
not hit a set ott/otr often enough to offset it.
In other words, this is practically KK/99/77 go all in on non-ace flops, so
our payoff is:
Axx ～19%, we lose $30
～53.5%, we win $290, /when KK hold up on ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****s
发帖数: 1130 | 18 我這麼玩的一個原因是我也會bluff three street,所以我expect worse hand might
call me down. 比如我剛剛又輸了個KK. （我的KK真的是每次都死菜，我現在都盡量
preflop all in KK了，雖然也還是死菜）
Hero (SB) ($62.54)
BB ($36.42)
UTG ($25.35)
MP ($21.69)
CO ($25)
Button ($25)
Preflop: Hero is SB with Kh, Kc
3 folds, Button bets $0.65, Hero raises $2.60, 1 fold, Button calls $2.05
Flop: ($5.65) 8c, Jd, 2d (2 players)
Hero bets $4.23, Button raises $11.90, Hero raises $55.61 (All-In), Button
calls $10.40 (All-In)
Turn: ($50.25) 9c (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: ... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 19 都输了。 parx 1/2
第一把， 没意思， EP raised 7$ couple callers, I reraised to 35,
sb short stack shoved $110, bb donked calls with 165$ left. all folded. I re-shoved all in and had both covered. sb QQ, bb didn't show. Turn was Q. luckily still made 55$ from the deeper stack.. hehe.. the original raiser 是个棒子， 他说他是JJ. big mistake to tell me what he has, 这是后话。
第二把，有点意思 lp raise 15 他有大该250, 那个棒子call. 我在dealer， 有700筹码， 棒子比我多。 我3 bet 45. lp calls. 棒子over shove all in. 我想了大该20 秒， 轻松fold 掉。 lp, 把牌开开， 是QQ, 磨磨唧唧， 说... 阅读全帖 |
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H****r
发帖数: 2801 | 20 第二把 AA感觉打的很好啊，即可以让250的跟进，又可以push走deep-stake而且在
button的高手，避免flop出来以后被over-play同时锁定利益？
re-shoved all in and had both covered. sb QQ, bb didn't show. Turn was Q.
luckily still made 55$ from the deeper stack.. hehe.. the original raiser 是
个棒子， 他说他是JJ. big mistake to tell me what he has, 这是后话。
筹码， 棒子比我多。 我3 bet 45. lp calls. 棒子over shove all in. 我想了大该
20 秒， 轻松fold 掉。 lp, 把牌开开， 是QQ, 磨磨唧唧， 说不能fold, 我偷笑，
我KK 都fold 了。 call. 棒子show AA. 他问我是不是KK, 我说是， 他说你怎么不
call, 我说， poker god 要我输钱， 我out play 他了。 lol. ... 阅读全帖 |
|
r******r
发帖数: 39 | 21 周中还能去打牌，羡慕啊！
re-shoved all in and had both covered. sb QQ, bb didn't show. Turn was Q.
luckily still made 55$ from the deeper stack.. hehe.. the original raiser 是
个棒子， 他说他是JJ. big mistake to tell me what he has, 这是后话。
筹码， 棒子比我多。 我3 bet 45. lp calls. 棒子over shove all in. 我想了大该
20 秒， 轻松fold 掉。 lp, 把牌开开， 是QQ, 磨磨唧唧， 说不能fold, 我偷笑，
我KK 都fold 了。 call. 棒子show AA. 他问我是不是KK, 我说是， 他说你怎么不
call, 我说， poker god 要我输钱， 我out play 他了。 lol. 其实他JJ preflop
都丢了， 这里那么深， 只能是AA. （看来我也能把对手读出一手牌来， 呵呵）。
他这牌其实也打得够差的。他前面... 阅读全帖 |
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g**s
发帖数: 1114 | 22 if he 4 bet 100 more on top, would you still fold your KK?
stack my KK post flop. 如果他3 bet, 我4 bet 那他再call, 就更好了, 因为spr
更小. 这种KK AA, preflop 有3 bet 4 bet. 其实300bb stack 都不算深. preflop
稍微有点耐心, post flop 就打到all in 了. |
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k*********u
发帖数: 2897 | 23 如果你是庄，你冲出去被抓的概率如下，
2/9!
如果不是庄，冲了被抓的概率就不好算了，会更高，
因为装可能会扣绝这一门。
冲不冲，自己决定,哈哈！
发信人: kunlunrunyu (大巧不工，重剑无锋), 信区: WmGame
标 题: Re: 算算
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Nov 2 00:11:09 2010, 美东)
更新一下上面的算法也不对，正确算法如下：
两个AA分给3个人， 一共有9种排列。
可以看做分步法，先分一个A给3个人
假定A, C为对手，B为对家
实际上，选A，B，C谁当对家都是一样的：
排列一：
A 1 B 0 C 0
对于这个排列，再分一个A给他们
对应3个排列：
A 2 B 0 C 0
A 1 B 1 C 0
A 1 B 0 C 1
相应知道： 9个排列里面，只有A 2, B 0, C 0 和 A 0 B 0 C 2
两种排列可以出现AA杀KK。
所以概率应该为2/9 略小于1/4.
假定系统完全随机的话，但是老邢的系统太扯淡，所以具体这个
系统是多少概率，只有天知道，哈哈。
发信人: kunlunrunyu (大巧不工，重剑无锋)... 阅读全帖 |
|
p*******i
发帖数: 1181 | 24 楼主的计算非常有道理， 做个小改进：
因为大部分情况下，大家是关心在自己抓了KK，却没有A的时候外面有AA对的概率 （自
己有A的话显然外面不会有AA），所以我对楼主的R code做了改进，计算在庄家有KK却
没有A的时候外面有AA对的概率，结果是32.1%。
code 如下：
i<-0
m<-0
for(n in 1:100000){
x<-sample(1:108,108,replace=F)
j<-seq(1,33,by=1)
cj<-seq(34,108,by=1)
if(any(x[j]==3) & any(x[j]==4) & any(x[cj]==1) & any(x[cj]==2))
{
m<-m+1
k<-seq(84,108,by=1)
if(any(x[k]==1) & any(x[k]==2))
{
i<-i+1
}
k<-seq(34,58,by=1)
if(any(x[k]==1) & any(x[k]==2))
{
i<-i+1
}
k<-seq(59,83,by=1)
if(any(x[k]==1) & any(x[k]==2))
{
i<-i+1
}
... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*******0
发帖数: 1643 | 25 你的算法不对。你没想到这两个A是不同的，你认为这两个A没区别。
我把1当作A1，把2当作A2
ABC当作三个玩家。B是帮庄的。
那么这A的分布如下：
A1B2
A1C2
B1C2
B1A2
C1A2
C1B2
A1A2
B1B2
C1C2
可见，KK大的概率是2/3，KK被敌人抓的几率2/9，KK跑掉的几率7/9。 |
|
c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 26 if you are going to fold a big reraise with KK, you'd better limp with KK,
so you can call a raise and try to hit trips, hehe. man, you played KK
like I am playing 88...
pocket QQ, should not do this( unless he play very loose).If I call, he is
likely to bet like 10-15 times BB on flop( no matter he was AA or QQ), and
that would be tough for me to : Was I wrong? |
|
t***k
发帖数: 57 | 27 how deep are you with the vilian?
how can you fold a KK for only like 100BB?
if the opponent reraise range has KK, AA, AKs or AKo, you still has 47/53
equity with your KK.
I guess you did not play online 6max. online even AK is a default all in
hand for 100bb. |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 28 hehe, i folded KK once on $100 raise on flop (no ace), the other guy showed
f**king KK on the river!!
but, that's the only time i folded "wrong", other few times i folded my AA,
KK, QQ, all turned up as good fold.
and |
|
|
c*******u
发帖数: 12899 | 30 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hellovicky (KK\'s Mummy) 于 (Wed May 5 01:08:18 2010, 美东) 提到:
我们是爱读书的乖宝宝~~~
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
HeGuaMei (黑瓜妹) 于 (Wed May 5 01:09:22 2010, 美东) 提到:
宝宝的发际线好有特色，好像读书的小和尚呀。男孩还是女孩啊？
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
hellovicky (KK\'s Mummy) 于 (Wed May 5 01:13:12 2010, 美东) 提到:
我们是男娃~~呵呵
他都不怎么长头发呢，我们5个多月了还没有理过发 哈
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
nursesister (微笑如初——牛妞小欣) 于 (Wed May 5 11:14:03 2010, 美东) 提到:
哈 |
|
i**n
发帖数: 979 | 31 有人说Kevin Keegan是永远不会妥协的，他热爱的
事物，将陪伴着他一生，直到一起入土。 就算是
失去国家队的主教练也不在乎，所捍卫的只有特立
独行的足球理念。 然而，他已经意识到自己不在
是年轻时的一个明星前锋了，做一个球队的主教练
所承受的压力甚至高于一个进不了球的国家队主力
前锋。 俱乐部是金钱的累积，是上百万球迷的同
一期待，所有的物质的，精神的投入都掌握在他一
个人的手中，如果他要把它们随自己风格的方向任
意挥霍，就算自己有必死的信念，数百万的诅咒也
将缠着他的灵魂沉到地狱最底层。。。
终于，KK还是妥协了，Ali和Berkovic也许以后只
能有一个上场了，一场的胜利能不能让他明白在足
球场上，平衡了攻防会增强进攻的效率？ 他也许
能了解到，其实球队不需要两个重叠的进攻组织者？
或者说，没有vierra在自己队里，没有坚强的不知
疲倦的翅膀，就不要放三个可怜的人在后面？
足球理念不是信念，不是理想，只不过是适应现实
提高成绩的toolbox而已，足球场是一个现实浮躁的
市场，不是前沿科学的实验室，KK不知道需要多少
场胜败才能真正理解它 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 32 no, we all have our limits.
but we have to conquer our "worst" fears sometimes, like when we have KK and
somebody re-raises, we get emotionally nervous and instantly put him on
something super strong like AA (as if he knew you had KK) ......
this is one gate we have to pass.
, |
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p*t
发帖数: 275 | 33 AA v.s. KK的几率极小，AK的可能性稍大一点吧。甚至可能是KK，呵呵。
pocket QQ, should not do this( unless he play very loose).If I call, he is
likely to bet like 10-15 times BB on flop( no matter he was AA or QQ), and
that would be tough for m |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 34 所以你希望能从他们这种错误中最大程度获利。很多时候, raise preflop extremely
big是最大程度获利的办法。如果你知道对手会call, 甚至allin with AA or KK
也不是不可以。对于KK, 在late position, 100 bb以下的allin在数学上也是正确的，
即使对手只在有AA的时候call. huge prelop raise的一个好处就是你等于
把牌摊开，对手也还是无法获利。
down |
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l**********t
发帖数: 269 | 35 Dont have hh yet and I haven't installed any sort of poker tracker yet so
dont have the stats either. I'm seriously not sure what is the right way to
play KK with the A on broad.
I play 0.05/0.10 game on poker star. it is the NL10?
I was dealt KK and raised to 0.30. everyone fold except the guy on BB
called 0.30. I have position on him.
That guy is LAG. He loves any face card and would rise no matter how weak
the kicker is. He doesn't like any number card. He always folds when he
totally |
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c****u
发帖数: 3277 | 36 sure. AA, KK are actually vulnerable
hands in this game, when they hit trips, usually
you can't get actions unless your opp hits a low trip or two pairs
as well. However, against extremely loose players, they are very good,
you may often stack your opp with AAor KK and you often want to push all in
preflop against them. cbet often works when your image is tight and don't
raise
frequently. Still, in my experience, the most money you make is in the
big hand confrontation and you hold the nut.
:
n |
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t*********d
发帖数: 3398 | 37 NL100
UTG limped in, UTG+1 raised to 6bb, button called 6BB, I was big blinds with
KK, re-raised to 20BB, UTG folded, UTG+1 170 BB all in, button folded. My
stack covered UTG+1 and folded my KK after thinking for 5 seconds. |
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t*********d
发帖数: 3398 | 38 总结：
UTG+1 3Bet 80%应该是AA/KK， middle position 3Bet range AA/KK/AK/QQ.
把握好了对手的range， 能够不用nuts就能搞死他们。
. Flop Ah9h3h, MP bet 5bb and I called. Turn blank, MP checked and I checked
, river 9c, MP bet 10bb and I raised to 20BB. MP called and showed AKo.
Heads Up. Flop 3d9cQd, I checked and UTG+1 bet pot size 18bb, I called. Turn
Ts, I checked, UTG+1 bet 40bb, I shoved with rest 74BB, UTG+1 called with
his rest 50BB, river blank. UTG+1 showed KcKs. |
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w***w
发帖数: 6301 | 39 NL0.25/0.5
KK at EP.
preflop raise to $2,MP reraise to $5,I call.
flop small rainbow, I check, the guy bet $12.5, I think for a while and fold.
这牌我是不是preflop reraise更好一点?不过我觉得他preflop reraise我,flop bet big已经给出足够信息.如果他flop bet小一点,我就很麻烦.
QQ at button.
The guy before me raise to $1.5,I reraise to $3.5, he call.
flop small rainbow,he bet $6,I allin, he fold.
因为我reraise他只是call,所以基本上排除他有AA,KK. |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 40 KK is always tough to lay down.
played a similar hand yesterday at doylesroom, but in a button vs. SB
situation.
button bet $1.75.
she's an average player (i was playing with her at two tables), a few orbits
ago, she tried to steal once in SB vs BB, and got shot down by me. after
that, she stayed quiet for long and didn't play much at all.
i got KK at SB, BB was a super LAG bluffer post-flop, but i didn't want him
to come along in this hand, so i made it $6.99 to go right away.
i chose this amou |
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T*********k
发帖数: 1621 | 41 Shove is the correct play.
Fold will be wrong majority of the time. A full ring game, the probablity of
AA vs KK at same hand is around 4%. Your opponenets have QQ, KK, AK most of
time. I enountered ppl re-pop in late position even with 77 or 88. He could
even attempt a squeeze play with nothing, although the probablity is low/
But I guess Fryking had a bad feeling at that time. Or perhaps the recent
tragic of having pocket K cracked multiple time affected you? |
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d*****0
发帖数: 1500 | 42 imo,if the other 2 just play for fun, then nothing is impossible.
Otherwise,
EP limp/mini reraise against 2 ppl without position, in this situation he
definitely has a strong hand and hope you guys to call. if he is a normal
player, he at least has ajo+ or tt+ even might have AA and wanted to give u
guys a chance to bet on flop.
and btn cold-call twice is another strong signal (but not NUTS strong).
but EP checked with that high cards/drawing flop, to me, he either slow play
or check/raise with ... 阅读全帖 |
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D*****A
发帖数: 551 | 43 QQ raised pot
QQ+1 3-bet
I called the 3-bet
KK raised pot
Then,
QQ all in
QQ+1 folded
I shoved
KK shoved |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 44 hehe, of course, in case 1, 5 handed, KK wins 37.23% times, right?
you're assuming NO more betting post flop, just like alan's example, AA vs.
9 all-in hands preflop is the optimal case in the long term.
but here, KK is doomed to lose ANOTHER $100 post flop in 5-way most of time
(if not more), this changes the whole thing.
compared with $30 preflop, $100 is not small money at all that can be
ignored.
understand what this % mean in the graph you posted? |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 45 why are we assuming that people are playing perfect against us? they never
get it in behind after flop? really? 99 folds to a bet post flop on a 10 2
3 board with pot is 120$? This calculations is way off because you never
considered that we get it all in after flop ahead. Even under this condition where people play perfect against us, we STILL make 10$ over long run. The real ev
vs 3 or 4 fish in the pot are much higher.
You might think you understand what 37% means, but I don't think you do... 阅读全帖 |
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M********g
发帖数: 717 | 46 I think I learned so much just by reading these two kk threads.
At first i totally agreed with you. I thought windstorm was totally off in
this spot. Just as you said, he created a so hard situation for himself by
raising so little. After reading all these posts, i started to realize what
he meant, though I am still not sure if his theory matches everyone's style
here. I would say he tangos with a little very thin ev here. I think both
strategies have merits, as far as they suit your style.
A th... 阅读全帖 |
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f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 47 dude, are you really saying these 2 situations are the same???
1) KK, limp raised, vs. 4 callers, flop $100 into $150, first to act post
flop;
2) KK at BB, last one to act pre, vs. 2 callers, flop $100 into $63.
really?
or put in this simpler way:
in 1), you have double enemies (4) with only half ammo (2/3 pot).
or in 2) you have half enemies (2) with double ammo (1.6 pot).
do you know how your winning %, equity and EV drop in these?
do you have the luxury to bet (not shove) in 1?
and i don't ev... 阅读全帖 |
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s*****s
发帖数: 1130 | 48 最近KK輸太多了，有的是運氣背，比如昨天preflop all in against 88, JJ, AQ with
full stack, and lost all three times. 但有些應該是自己玩得不對，請大家給個
意見。謝謝。
我的總體思路是KK一定要玩得猛，因為我的形象差，loose and aggressive,經常check
raise,有時候甚至會bluff三條街,別人很可能不信我有牌。
1)
SB ($32.63)
BB ($25)
UTG ($26.83)
Hero (MP) ($38.56)
Button ($26.27)
Preflop: Hero is MP with Kd, Kc
UTG calls $0.25, Hero bets $1.25, Button calls $1.25, 2 folds, UTG calls $1
Flop: ($4.10) 8h, 7c, 2s (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4.10, Button calls $4.10, 1 fold
Turn: ($12.30) Jc ... 阅读全帖 |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 49 i think fryking is right. You are only looking at your own card when playing
. all you think about is I am loose and aggressive and I am going to play KK
until all in. You need to think more about opponents' range. their calling
range, their range range, their all in range. Trying to get 3 street value
from KK is ok ONLY if you actually think about this. Otherwise, you are just
at level 1 with a LAG style. |
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W********m
发帖数: 7793 | 50 我说他打得烂吧。 打到我心安里得preflop秒fold KK的程度， 够差的. 呵呵。 我运气好。
他可能也没想到我会fold KK.
其实我们筹码的深度应该可以帮lp fold.. 不过鱼就是鱼, 有QQ 是放不下的. 而且可能越看越觉得对手是AK..lol. 估计棒子over shove 也是打鱼打惯了, AA 再明显, fish 也会给action.
deep |
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