m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 1 Up.
My 2 cents:
Cruz cannot win FL. Kasich can win MI/OH.
The priority for Trump is to stop Kasich. |
|
w********0
发帖数: 1211 | 2 见这个链接
http://www.bustle.com/articles/145907-is-the-louisiana-primary-
简而言之，就是at-large的那25张票，按比例分配的threshold是20%。对于没到
threshold的人，别的州一般就是把他们去掉，上threshold的人按相对比例分配，也就
是说分母得rescale到100%。可是这个LA州很奇葩，按原来实际拿到的比例分，这样没
到20%的人的票暂时不分给任何人，而是变成unbounded,delegate想投谁就投谁。
比如按目前的比例，trump 47.7%, cruz 23.5%, rubio 19.3%, kasich 3.1%
rubio,kasich都不到20%，按正常的rescale，trump和cruz应该2：1分配那25张，
trumpg该拿17张，cruz8张。但按这个奇葩规则，trump只有12张，cruz6张，剩下7张届
时 delegate可以想投谁就投谁,就好比民主党的super delgatel了。太无耻了！ |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 3 Great. This provides Rubio a cover to stay in the race.
I think Trump will have a win in FL as long as Rubio stays.
But he really needs to slow Kasich's momentum in MI/OH.
Kasich has not been really tested so far? |
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 4 现在我还是这个看法。昨晚的情况基本在预料之中。KS的差距有些大了；ME应该是有
fraud.
老头儿应该能赢FL，但不敢掉以轻心。OH我觉得很玄，against a popular sitting
governor. 更要命的是GOP apparatus似乎真的是在按Romney的 playbook play. OH
will probably go to Kasich.
当然丢掉OH也不见得是坏事。Cruz or Rubot won't have chance to win it, either.
Kasich will earn his VP spot. I think that is his plan anyway.
老头会靠北方的优势赢得nomination. But the race may indeed go all the way to
CA. |
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kasich
"He also worked as an investment banker, a managing director of Lehman
Brothers' Columbus, Ohio, office.[6][7]"
Davis, Teddy (May 12, 2010). "Lehman Brothers Collapse Haunts John Kasich in
Ohio Governor's Race". ABC News. Retrieved 2012-09-05.
Hershey, William (April 2, 2010). "Kasich made $1.1 M in 2008; no "golden
parachute" from Lehman Bros, records show". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved
2012-09-05.
He is OVER! |
|
d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kasich
"He also worked as an investment banker, a managing director of Lehman
Brothers' Columbus, Ohio, office.[6][7]"
Davis, Teddy (May 12, 2010). "Lehman Brothers Collapse Haunts John Kasich in
Ohio Governor's Race". ABC News. Retrieved 2012-09-05.
Hershey, William (April 2, 2010). "Kasich made $1.1 M in 2008; no "golden
parachute" from Lehman Bros, records show". Dayton Daily News. Retrieved
2012-09-05.
He is OVER! |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 7 The latest FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll has around 10% undecided votes. Per
Washington Examiner, most of these votes will go to Cruz/Kasich/Rubio. I
just hope Cruz/Kasich/Rubio will split these votes evenly. |
|
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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 9 http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/06/politics/marco-rubio-super-saturd
(CNN)The numbers on Super Saturday are small -- five states, with fewer than
a million votes cast across all contests on the day -- but they're no less
fun for that.
Take Marco Rubio. The Florida senator and his allies spent nearly twice as
much in TV advertising per vote as all other candidates combined --
Republicans and Democrats.
Here's how that breaks down: Conservative Solutions PAC, which backs Rubio,
spent $124,590 on ads in... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 10 The latest FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll has around 10% undecided votes. Per
this article, most of these votes will go to Cruz/Kasich/Rubio. I just hope
Cruz/Kasich/Rubio will split these votes evenly. |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 11 Who will be the nomination in a contested convention?
If not Trump, Trump will most likely run as an independent candidate, then
deprive any chance for the republican nominee.
I don't think Cruz or Rubio want to be the nominee, because they are still
young. Rubio might want to because he looks stupid. But is he so stupid?
Then we only have Kasich, Romney and Bush. They are old, and they can care
less about the future.
All in all, Kasich, Romney and Bush want a contested convention. Trump and
Cr... 阅读全帖 |
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T*******e
发帖数: 4110 | 12 【 以下文字转载自 Football 讨论区 】
发信人: ThetaWave (Theta), 信区: Football
标 题: 选举到了现在，说野马赢的共和党总统候选人all gone
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 9 21:37:51 2016, 美东)
有趣的发现，在巨碗前夜，共和党总统候选人在New Hampshire正好有场竞选辩论，主
持人问谁拿巨碗， Kasich，Rubio， Cruz，Trump肯定的说黑豹。Bush，Christie说野
驴。Carson开玩笑说一定是野驴和黑豹之一。Bush，Christie and Carson have been
all gone. 现在留下的恰恰是做了错误预测的四个。
Below is the transcripts for the answers on who would win Super Bowl in that
Republican presidential debate,
10:32 p.m. What the candidates had to say when asked who w... 阅读全帖 |
|
n******g
发帖数: 17225 | 13 【 以下文字转载自 Football 讨论区 】
发信人: ThetaWave (Theta), 信区: Football
标 题: 选举到了现在，说野马赢的共和党总统候选人all gone
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 9 21:37:51 2016, 美东)
有趣的发现，在巨碗前夜，共和党总统候选人在New Hampshire正好有场竞选辩论，主
持人问谁拿巨碗， Kasich，Rubio， Cruz，Trump肯定的说黑豹。Bush，Christie说野
驴。Carson开玩笑说一定是野驴和黑豹之一。Bush，Christie and Carson have been
all gone. 现在留下的恰恰是做了错误预测的四个。
Below is the transcripts for the answers on who would win Super Bowl in that
Republican presidential debate,
10:32 p.m. What the candidates had to say when asked who w... 阅读全帖 |
|
c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 14 除了Trump有可能选kasich当VP，没有第二个人有动力选他的，但他现在做拦路虎可能
断送Trump在GOP甚至整个政治前途。Kasich is a goner, but he is also selfish
and stupid. |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 15 Cruz outperforms because he has a formidable ground game apparatus.
Ohio is Kasich's own turf, so you should expect Kasich takes
advantage of his organizations in the state. He should outperform
his poll number. |
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 16 我觉得 trump 赢 OH 的可能性更大。
1) Kasich 迄今一个州都没赢过。侧面说明他不能 appeal 选民
2）) Kasich 在MI 投入很多，但成绩很差。 MI 是个 OH 的指示灯。像 Sanders 大赢
NH， 媒体都说和 NH,VT 地理位置一起有关。如果 Kaisch 真的在 OH 有实力，MI 应
该相差很少。
3）) Kaisch appeal to 的选民实际是 trump 的主要支持者。这也是他迄今为止一个
州也赢不下的原因。 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 17 如表：40以下提高退休年龄
trump： 不变，靠防止诈骗，减少对外武力支出，改善经济补缺口。如表不同意。
Cruz：私有化social security
Kasich: 砍富人的退休金，保穷人的。
MMD，我们难道要70岁才能退休？如表滚蛋！social security私有化更不靠谱，钱转几
个口袋就转到米犹兜里了。
trump和kasich靠谱。 |
|
c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 18 完全同意，trump没拿到足够的delegates，gop不会放弃的，有可能trump拿到了，gop
里的一些人还会出什么损招。
昨天的civil debate 说明不了啥，更多是rubio，cruz，kasich的个人选择，也说明因
为negative attacking trump 一直不work，这些人还没有好的办法，这样的civil
debate也许是另一种尝试defeat trump。
rubio刚刚变相呼吁他的voter 在ohio 去投 kasich，这样trump ohio 几乎没戏了，这
样的话，里done deal 还远着那。 |
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d******u
发帖数: 1142 | 19 如果Rubio 有一部分支持者去投了Kasich 的话，Kasich 赢的机会很大，但是大部分选
民应该不会愿意这样被当棋子使吧。
不知道Carson 的背书会有些什么影响，这个还是个未知数，总之Ohio不确定性很大。 |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 20 Kasich is disgusting.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich's campaign said in a statement, "The seeds of division
that Donald Trump has been sowing this whole campaign finally bore fruit,
and it was ugly." He urged people to rise above the violence, adding, "We
are stronger together, we will reject those who try to divide us for
personal gain and we will do it the right way — at the ballot box." |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 21 看这个。
Romney 帮助除掉 Kaisch,在夏天的 broker conventions 上又少了一个竞争对手。
http://gawker.com/mitt-romney-devotes-himself-to-helping-kasich
At New York magazine, Gabe Sherman theorizes that Romney’s Trump speech may
have been the start of a more significant reentry into presidential
politics that will culminate in a late candidacy announcement and, Romney
hopes, the seizing of the nomination at a brokered convention. If Sherman is
right, and if Romney’s Kasich support happens to backfire as badly as his
Trump s... 阅读全帖 |
|
b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 22 【 以下文字转载自 Military 讨论区 】
发信人: beijingren (to thine own self be true), 信区: Military
标 题: 卡西奇：我要击落违反了叙利亚禁飞区的俄罗斯飞机
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 14 10:07:14 2016, 美东)
Kasich: I’d Shoot Down Russian Planes In Syria If They Violated A No-Fly
Zone
http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/kasich-id-shoot-down-ru |
|
x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 23 Latest poll from YouGov put Trump and Kasich as tie: 33%.
This is an improvement from -6% deficit for Trump from prior polls. I think
Trump sees an open. Probably due to what happened and what Kasich said
during weekend. |
|
|
t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 25 俄州人注册民主党远多于注册共和党。只要有少量民主党跨线去投，就足够搅局。
再加上rubio号召他的支持者投kasich.
看kasich在fl的百分比和rubio在ohio的百分比，他们的粉丝确实是响应了号召了。 |
|
t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 26 肯定是接到电话让他退，他不服，毕竟delegate数目比kasich多多了。今天选举之后，
他的票数也还是比kasich多。 |
|
t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 27 Kasich的如意算盘是和cruz合攻trump, 然后让cruz民意跌，他捡便宜。
但是trump说不去，那么他就会成为cruz的攻击对象。光大赦非法移民一条，就能被
cruz攻击得体无完肤。那么辩论的完胜方就是cruz. 再说Kasich出了ohio几乎没有支持
度，明显为cruz做嫁衣的debate, 他当然不会去。 |
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t*******4
发帖数: 767 | 28 There's no way for Kasich and Ted to win in CA.
Little Marco will have the chance if he's still in the loop. But he dropped
out.
I also doubt whether Kasich can hold that long or not. He may drop out way
before CA. |
|
h****n
发帖数: 3447 | 29 Kasich如果退出，Trump必然拿到足够的提名，那就什么戏都没得唱了。显然Kasich还
是配合党中央的。 |
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t*c
发帖数: 8291 | 30 Kasich前天说周四开始做猛男，进攻alpha男trump, 这下傻眼了，fox取消了辩论，
kasich气还没冲起来就被戳一个洞瘪了。 |
|
K********y
发帖数: 5068 | 31 哈哈， 卡西奇吓尿乐；FOX辩论会取消
Trump做出明智决定不参加辩论会；
希望看到可掳死和卡西奇 狗咬狗，、两嘴毛，
kasich吓死了，以前没支持度，没delegates, 所以别人都把他当空气，
现在是cruz的主要抢票人， cruz辩论时随便搞搞， 就能把他搞死，
kasich当然不会做黄继光。 |
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T***u
发帖数: 1468 | 32 HRC对Trump占优势，对Cruz/Kasich占劣势
所以Cruz应该和Kasich联手，争取自己当总统，而不是跟在Trump屁股后面输掉大选 |
|
T***u
发帖数: 1468 | 33 你从Cruz的角度看，HRC屁股再不干净，无非Trump能赢我也能赢，那么我当然要当总统
而不是副总统
从Kasich的角度看，Cruz的胜率比Trump高，所以我自己不能上位的话就应该跟Cruz
总之，Trump票数不够的话，没法用running mate位置拉拢Cruz/Kasich
Trump？ |
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z****z
发帖数: 2054 | 34 首先我承认, 我昨天去投了Kasich一票.
但不是因为Kasich要"大赦"我.
在本版我基本上不参与合法非法移民的争论.
我除了在一家老墨的餐馆里, 确实看不到什么老墨, 最多就还是有些接锄草铲雪活的老
墨.
所以没有发言权.
某些床粉这种"亲不亲, 阶级分!", "帝富反坏右, 排好队, 接受批斗!"的玩法, 比较适
合你们的时代, 还真是把你们穿越回文革去. |
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I******I
发帖数: 14241 | 35 我最后回你一次，别玩文字游戏。别人反对老墨非法移民，你就给人扣帽子，不用再装
无辜了。
发信人: zzphzz (zzphzz), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: dcbang，zzphzz 你们这些非法移民回中国去
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 16 14:02:22 2016, 美东)
首先我承认, 我昨天去投了Kasich一票.
但不是因为Kasich要"大赦"我.
在本版我基本上不参与合法非法移民的争论.
我除了在一家老墨的餐馆里, 确实看不到什么老墨, 最多就还是有些接锄草铲雪活的老
墨.
所以没有发言权.
某些床粉这种"亲不亲, 阶级分!", "帝富反坏右, 排好队, 接受批斗!"的玩法, 比较适
合你们的时代, 还真是把你们穿越回文革去.
发信人: zzphzz (zzphzz), 信区: USANews
标 题: Re: dcbang，zzphzz 你们这些非法移民回中国去
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Mar 16 14:20:54 2016, 美东)
你们床粉还真是有立场无观点.
楼主的意思就是说某些人是非法移民或者支持非法... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****d
发帖数: 61690 | 36 A new statewide poll gives Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton double-digit
leads in the lead up to the Arizona’s March 22 presidential primaries.
But 30 percent of Republican and 26 percent of Democratic voters say they
are still undecided.
Arizona pollster Bruce Merrill conducted the survey along with Phoenix-based
Westgroup Research.
Among Republicans, Trump leads with 31 percent. The business mogul has led
in other Arizona surveys.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is second with 19 percent followed by Flori... 阅读全帖 |
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L**d
发帖数: 620 | 37 就是Cruz和kasich的票加起来比Trump多，那么这两人联合当正副总统，这是按游戏规
则出牌，所以trump无话可说，
如果最后Trump的票比两人合计要多100票以上，GOP就只能妥协。
只要以后每次是3：2：1（Trump: Cruz: Kasich)的赢面，即每次Trump比两人总和多，
Trump就是Winner. |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 38 with Kasich aggressively splitting the voters in Utah, Cruz is not going to
win the majority of that state, so the delegates will go proportionally to
all three remaining.
nice job, kasich ! |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 39 Good job, Kasich!
What will be Kasich's impact in the northeast?
to |
|
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 40 对，但问题是KASICH现在肯定不会同意给TRUMP当VP，TRUMP一个商人屁都没有一个许诺
不值钱，TRUMP得拿下多数票许诺才管点用。换句话说，他也在等CRUZ给他OFFER才会退
，可能CRUZ瞧不上这糟老头子。
KASICH看样子有钱还是要走下去，他在选VP。 |
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x****d
发帖数: 2239 | 41 有一篇以前的Ron Paul 的campaign advisor: Doug Wead 写给Trump team的：
Warning to the Trumpets. It ain’t over. It is just beginning.
Below are a list of tactics that Establishment Republicans may use to block
the nomination of Donald Trump. Yes, I know. If they succeed they will not
win the White House but many in the establishment will make just as much
money under a Democrat insider as they will with a Republican insider. So
they may not care.
All they may want to do is send the message to any future “ou... 阅读全帖 |
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s**p
发帖数: 518 | 42 同意kasich存在对trump有利，不同意他是个好人。他在Ohio干得不错，自我感觉膨胀
，以为可以当总统了。其实根本看不到美国的弊病，没有big picture不说，看见比他
厉害的人还心存嫉恨。只不过不像别人表面上直接攻击trump罢了。他心里对trump的恨
不比其他人少。但是希望他不要想通，坚持到六月底。Romney倒戈cruz对州长是个打击
，让他对establishment失望，很担心他撑不下去
[在 flychina7 (111) 的大作中提到：]
：不停的骂Kasich,你们都不长脑袋的么？他的存在显然是对Trump有利的。
：
：........... |
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n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 43 这个和判断候选人的position同样困难
之前护士还是力挺民主党，现在又说要大破大立
Kasich刚刚被认为是建制的人，今天又说会采用奥巴马提名的大法官，这显然打了目前
建制派的脸，也是今天看的索罗斯给钱给Kasich了
Ted Cruz一下子似乎又成建制派的菜 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 44 Kasich could have a much better deal from Trump before Ohio primary, and he
didn't even want that. Now Cruz is offering him "a place in an
administration" ?
That being said, Kasich is a delusional moron.
in
presidential
237
says.
think |
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 45 The voices from the other side (from predict it):
Right now is the lowest support Cruz is going to have in Wisconsin before
voting day. He's only just begun to run television ads today (Wednesday).
Scott Walker will be endorsing and campaigning for him. Jeb Bush's
endorsement is, at the very least, a strong coordination signal to the anti-
Trump vote in the same way Romney's was in Utah. Demographically &
politically, Wisconsin is a clone of the state of Iowa, where I live. As a
state, it does n... 阅读全帖 |
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r******9
发帖数: 234 | 46 你们的CNN又发布民调了，说Trump会输给Clinton，按这个逻辑，Clinton应该发动支持
者去投Trump的票才对啊，反正到普选时你们肯定赢。既然如此，为什么还有这么多民
主党人说应该去投Kasich？你们自己自己的逻辑自己先搞清楚好不好？
Fox的民调就不用看了，Fox是默多克的，那些人从来不鸟Trump，其实他们心里多希望
Kasich上啊。不过选民会告诉他们，共和党不是他们的，是人民的。 |
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h****g
发帖数: 2216 | 47 不投给Cruz，是差一票，要是转投给Trump，那就是差两票了。
至于转投给Kasich，嘿嘿，用Cruz的话来说：
one vote for Kasich is one vote for Trump.
尽管我不同意Cruz的很多观点，这条我同意。 |
|
t*****1
发帖数: 177 | 48 Is Donald Trump Suited to Be Our Next President?
View Stats
Scroll Down
1) Do you think Donald Trump is qualified be the next president of the
United States?
Yes - 83.8% (195,582 votes)
No - 16.2% (45,361 votes)
2) How would you rate Donald Trump’s chances of winning the republican
nomination?
Very Likely - 58.8% (158,668 votes)
Somewhat likely - 31.8% (79,277 votes)
Somewhat unlikely - 6.5% (16,569 votes)
No chance of winning the nomination - 2.7% (7,208 votes)
3) Do you agree with Donald Trump... 阅读全帖 |
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B********d
发帖数: 1262 | 49 这要按county算吧
靠近伊利诺伊州的问题都不大，今天出门，除了支持local school board的，就看见两
块牌子，一个Trump，一个是Kasich，Cruz的一个都没看见过。Trump的拉力主要都是偏
远的地方，那里的神棍可能要多些。Milwaukee附近Cruz没什么机会，Kasich都比Cruz
机会大些 |
|
S*******h
发帖数: 7021 | 50 去CNN 把目前赢的州看一遍 http://www.cnn.com/election/
发现Trump赢的州 Hillary也赢那州 两人命运相连 多数南方州
Sanders赢的州 Cruz也赢那州 例如 Utah, Wisconsin, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma
Cruz跟Sanders命运相连 Hillary跟 Trump命运相连 在座哪位能解释一下 为何有这
种奇怪的现象？
以下是少数例外的州跟我的推断∶
New Hamphsire 是Trump跟Sanders赢
Michigan: Trump and Sanders
Vermont: Trump and Sanders
由以上推测Trump跟Sanders在北方州有优势 估计之后东北州 New York, Connecticut,
Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island Trump要大赢
Iowa: Cruz and Clinton. 估计是Cruz吃掉Carson票的关系 要不早就是Trump赢了
Minnesota: Rubio and Sanders. Rubio... 阅读全帖 |
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