s********u
发帖数: 1054 | 1 发信人: desertz (我所热爱的传说), 信区: Investment
标 题: 投资研究笔记 (2) - HOGS的估值
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Sep 17 23:13:04 2009, 美东)
众所周知，美国上市的中概股中充斥着各种各样的垃圾股，可以长期投资的选择实在很
有限。另外在海外资本市场中的投资者对其中大部分公司并不了解，所以中概股的
valuation是很莫名其妙的一个现象。这里我想讨论一下如何对HOGS(众品)估值。无可
否认，估值是个非常难的事情，因为估值就要对未来进行预测，而一个公司的经营被太
多的不确定因素左右着。所以这里的所谓估值也只是通过对未来趋势的大致估计的一种
简单尝试。
先看目前的业绩。HOGS 2009全年revenue预计$800m(54亿人民币)，profit 1.6/s。相
对12.6的股价，P/E只有8倍。对比同行业的另两家企业，A股中的双汇P/E是28，HK上市
的雨润P/E有20，HOGS即使不能和A股的高估值比，和HK的雨润也差得很远。造成这个的
原因主要有两个。一是海外市场不充分了解中国公司，尤其是新兴的非知名... 阅读全帖 |
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p***n
发帖数: 17190 | 2 美國市場上豬肉的主要類型 是 瘦豬
Lean Hog is a type of hog (pork) that can be easily traded in mercantile and
option exchanges. This type of hog is the source of the majority of the
pork meat in the US.
Lean Hog futures and options are traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (
CME). The contracts are for 40,000 pounds of Lean Hogs, and call for cash
settlement based on the lean hog index. The lean hog index is a two-day
weighted average of cash markets. |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 3 Went to target today and was about to purchase a few items until I pulled
out my Galaxy Nexus and decided to use the target app to scan boxes instead
of the in-store scanner for prices and I was welcomed with clearance prices
1/3 the price of in-store prices. Here are a few of what I found.
Free ship plus save 5% on purchase with Target Red Card or Free shipping
Over $50
Link:
http://www.target.com/p/Air-Hogs-Vectron-Wave-Battle-Green/-/A-
- Air Hogs Vectron Wave Battle - Green normally $20.98... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 4 Free ship for "New Customers"(meaning email that is not in their system per
the promo details) with code FSHNEWAFL
Hog Wild Rapid Fire Power Popper:
http://www.dickssportinggoods.com/product/index.jsp?productId=3
For hours of fun, indoors or outdoors, try the Hog WildRapid Fire Power
Popper. The Power popper comes with 12 foam balls and allows the user to
shoot them rapidly one after the other.
Features:
Includes 12 foam balls
Ages 4 and up
Warning: do not shoot at eyes or head
Hog Wild Rapid Fi... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 5 来自主题: _pennystock版 - hogs 在hogs提供零售店地址后，CER的调查人员在上海地区做进一步调查，在上海的104家，
走访了78家，证实了其中的35家。
后来在hogs的协助下，他们一起去抽样调查了10家，结果是找到4家，3家没找到，3家
地址不对。双方的态度都比较强硬。
目前看来hogs 的retail store 比原来报告推测的要多，但是hogs对retail store管理
比较混乱，数据有问题。 |
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d*****z
发帖数: 114 | 6 众所周知，美国上市的中概股中充斥着各种各样的垃圾股，可以长期投资的选择实在很
有限。另外在海外资本市场中的投资者对其中大部分公司并不了解，所以中概股的
valuation是很莫名其妙的一个现象。这里我想讨论一下如何对HOGS(众品)估值。无可
否认，估值是个非常难的事情，因为估值就要对未来进行预测，而一个公司的经营被太
多的不确定因素左右着。所以这里的所谓估值也只是通过对未来趋势的大致估计的一种
简单尝试。
先看目前的业绩。HOGS 2009全年revenue预计$800m(54亿人民币)，profit 1.6/s。相
对12.6的股价，P/E只有8倍。对比同行业的另两家企业，A股中的双汇P/E是28，HK上市
的雨润P/E有20，HOGS即使不能和A股的高估值比，和HK的雨润也差得很远。造成这个的
原因主要有两个。一是海外市场不充分了解中国公司，尤其是新兴的非知名公司。因为
很多负面的先例，比如一些公司通过海外包装上市来圈钱套现，或者做假账，或者爆出
各种丑闻，或者经常second offering dilution, 数不胜数。另外大家也不了解中国市
场和相应的经营风险。所以海外投 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 9 Radio Shack has the Air Hogs Helix 360 heli on sale for $39.99. This is a 4
channel helicopter which means you can control up/down, forward/backward,
turn right/left, and "strafe" right/left. This helicopter retails for $79.
99 at Target and was on sale for $59.99 before Christmas at Radio Shack.
Currently it appears to be out of stock online but use the tool to find
availability at B&M and price match.
Air Hogs Helix 360:
http://www.radioshack.com/product/index.jsp?productId=10940308
Ready f... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 11 来自主题: _pennystock版 - hogs http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=341&t=HOGS
公司简介
河南众品(ZHONGPIN INC.)是中国的肉类及食品处理公司，主要从事猪肉及猪肉产品和
蔬果的处理，并在美国挂牌上市。公司提供高品质的肉品与食品产品处理，以满足中国
人每天饮食所需。公司的产品包括培根和香肠，三明治使用肉类以及新鲜猪肉产品。
财务分析
上一季每股盈余(EPS): 0.47
本益比(P/E): 4.6
净利/损(Net Income/lose): 58.27百万美元
预估盈余报导日: 2011/08/05
本季盈余平均预估: 0.41
评级: 强力买进
报导日期：2011/07/06 07:58
Zhongpin将买回1000万美元股票
(*HOGS*) 11.09 : 公司宣布，董事会通过未来12个月将买回1000万美元的在外流通普
通股，这项措施从2011年7月5日启生效，将在2012年7月4日执行完毕；3月31日公私有1
.776亿美元现金部位。
报导日期：2011/06/20 08:52
Zhongpin 两位高级主管将买... 阅读全帖 |
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h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 12 MineralRiver's post was pretty good. HOGS' issue is not only limited to the
trust issue, inflation will hurt the company's margin as well as revenue.
Overall, one can't become a value investor without paying attention to value
erosion. One has to ask what events are making the stock trading below its
estimated "fair value" and what can make it trading back to its fair value.
Disclaimer: I have not even looked into the details on HOGS at all,
sometimes I wonder why you guys are so interested in t... 阅读全帖 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 13 HOGS confirmed 2010 EPS at 1.49-1.64, below estimate of 1.70.
HOGS is defensive, now people chase high risk/reward.
Government controls meat price is another issue. |
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x*******i
发帖数: 97 | 14 I heard it is illegal to use 5.45x39 for deer hunting? Is this trure? How
about hog hunting?
Anyone here go hog hunting in next month? |
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a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 15 Minnesota liberals went whole hog:
any weapon must be registered, renewed each year.
warrantless home inspection
confiscate per anonymous tips
must share medical record with state
gun owner's address becomes public records.
to name a few. 2nd and 4th amendment out of the window.
conservatives, you think they d stop with some sort of "middle ground"?
nobodys coming to grab ur guns? think again. |
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u*******a
发帖数: 414 | 16 非常好的分析！
HOGS的问题是从来没有分过红。 |
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c*l
发帖数: 1433 | 17 谢谢分析，很有帮助。拿来研究了一下，有些不太托底的地方。
1。生猪加工是个成熟市场，大饼不会快速增长。只能靠吞噬别人的市场快速增长。这
个有难度。
2。HOGS扩张的方法似乎不太得当。贷款投资建厂，这个风险较大，因为总市场不增长
，总产能增长一定会引发行业平均利润下滑，不如并购好。
3。企业没有核心竞争力。品牌不知名，市场占有率不是前三，只靠挂个上市公司的牌
子很难说比前三更有前途。其实上市公司的成本比私企大，要维系很多regulation。
以上纯属个人意见。过去几年，该企业业绩和市值增长的还不错。 |
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M**********r
发帖数: 290 | 19 分析的不错，考虑的方方面面比较细致。
（赞一个，Desertz 在哪家公司做？）
刚刚拜读，虽然是2年前的，作为传统的分析思路参考还是很有价值。
俺是半个外行，下面说个想法，春做交流。
其中一条，对中国的市场环境大环境采用的基本是静态的考量，这个觉得有待商榷
，呵呵，比如经济环境对市场形态的影响甚至左右，在中国这个阶段是无法略过的。现
在2010-2011，通货膨胀，CPI高企，这些对HOGS的成本结构，利润率，资金成本，等等
的阶段性影响是相当大的，甚至比分析中已经考虑到的一些经典因素的影响因子还大。
如何把整体经济环境的阶段性变化和演进加权进入企业的经营结果分析，从而做出估值
判断是一个需要考虑的方面.尤其是针对中国企业。（在分析中已经保守打折的60-70%
算是？呵呵）
以上尤其是针对在美国上市的中国企业，还比如汇率的剧烈变化问题也是一个方面，直
接影响以美元核算的数字结果。这在几年前还不明显，现在显然要加权进去，可以结合
一些货币汇率远期的数据。（虽然在报表中有相应的部分。。）
所以以美国市场阶段为参考，窃以为还要考虑中国的剧烈变化的市场环境因素，特别是
食品行业。。。。在中国... 阅读全帖 |
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s**********n
发帖数: 868 | 20 再顶一下这个。
有HOGS的follower知道最近发生了什么么？看起来是一场诚信危机。
公司这两年业绩涨势不错，运营也还稳定啊。虽然今年宣布的扩张得激进了一点，但如
果数据可以信赖的话，跌成这个样子真是很夸张。 |
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h*******d
发帖数: 387 | 21 请教大牛，为什么大盘在涨，而HOGS却一直在跌?
先谢谢了。 |
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c********t
发帖数: 4527 | 22 he is rim and mm of hogs listens and watches. |
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x*******1
发帖数: 28835 | 24 As I said. referee will give hogs more chances. |
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o***u
发帖数: 1853 | 25 啥时候吹了，再说这个吧。。。
再有Hogs主场是人工草坪啊。。。 |
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s****y
发帖数: 18685 | 26 http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/colleges/post/_/id/4673574/big-1
Notre Dame's and Arkansas' names popped up as prospective future Big 12
members, and Arkansas athletic director Jeff Long confirmed on Wednesday
that contact did occur.
It also went about as expected.
From the Arkansas News:
He said the Big 12 did express interest in trying to lure Arkansas away
from the SEC. Long didn’t provide any exact details, but said the
conversation didn’t go far. He said Arkansas is strongly committed to... 阅读全帖 |
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o****3
发帖数: 5100 | 27 will both lsu and bama drop in the polls or with the hogs, they are going to
stay as the top3 one loss teams ahead of bsu? |
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s*****d
发帖数: 44 | 28 去年春天偶然照的，希望今年ground hog前两天出来的时候看不见自己的影子。 |
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m*****g
发帖数: 54 | 31 http://www.streaminglearningcenter.com/articles/flash-player-cpu-hog-or-hot-tamale-it-depends-
.html
Overall Conclusions:
When it comes to efficient video playback, the ability to access hardware
acceleration is the single most
important factor in the overall CPU load. On Windows, where Flash can access
hardware acceleration, the
CPU requirements drop to negligible levels. It seems reasonable to assume
that if the Flash Player could
access GPU-based hardware acceleration on the Mac (or iPod/iPho |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 32 Link:
http://www.amazon.com/Air-Hogs-V-Wing-Avenger/dp/B00168H62K/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1290192516&sr=8-1
This is one of those "wow" toys your boys ages 4-10 will love. We have a
similar one that runs into the house, street, cars, playset and still keeps
going. Charges in no time via the controller. Very cool toy, and big bang
for the buck at just over $20.
Description:
Preparing to Fly Load up the 4 AA batteries in the controller, plug the
avenger right in, and charge it up. You're ready t... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 33 Ames True Temper 1680000 Size 12 Grain Hog Scoop / Snow Shovel for $9.41
with FSSS Eligible at Amazon.com
This is the lowest I have seen this.
A great shovel....great price.
Link:
http://www.amazon.com/Ames-True-Temper-1680000-Grain/dp/B00004S
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
----
Product Features:
Snow shovel and grain scoop
Great for shoveling grain
Great for moving snow
Very durable
Poly DH handle scoop
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 34 来自主题: _pennystock版 - hogs 印象中hogs的manage team 一直不错。最近也被shorter攻击。 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 35 来自主题: _pennystock版 - hogs 恩。这个文章就是用了CRE上发表的调查报告。
如果hogs真做假，那就不用碰了。 |
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t******y
发帖数: 748 | 37 来自主题: _pennystock版 - hogs hogs反应很快，很积极嘛，我喜欢。 |
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r****1
发帖数: 2299 | 39 看到FEED前两天的新闻，感觉应该算是利好吧。
NEW YORK, Oct. 11 /PRNewswire-Asia/ -- AgFeed Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: FEED
, NYSE Alternext: ALHOG), an international agribusiness with operations in
the U.S. and China and one of the largest independent hog production and
animal nutrient companies in China, announced that its wholly owned
subsidiary, AgFeed Animal Nutrition Holdings, Inc. ("AANI"), has filed a
registration statement on Form F-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange
Commission (the "SEC") for a proposed... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 40 (1) David Pierson, Pork Shortage Hurting Chinese Economy. Los Angeles Times,
Sept 9, 2011.
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/sep/09
/business/la-fi-china-pork-lovers-20110910
Quote:
"Basic stir-fry [pork] meat costs about $2.50 per pound, or about one-sixth
a laborer's daily wage.
"China, by far the world's biggest producer of pork, is home to about half
the world's porcine population with 460 million pigs. That's about seven
times more than the United States, the second-largest producer. But it ... 阅读全帖 |
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s*******n
发帖数: 12995 | 41 An 11-year-old Alabama boy used a pistol to kill a wild hog that just may be
the biggest pig ever found.
Jamison Stone's father says the hog his son killed weighed a 1,051 pounds
and measured 9-feet-4 from the tip of its snout to the base of its tail.
Think hams as big as car tires.
If the claims are accurate, Jamison's trophy boar would be bigger than
Hogzilla, the famed wild hog that grew to seemingly mythical proportions
after being killed in south Georgia in 2004.
Hogzilla originally was tho... 阅读全帖 |
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p***y
发帖数: 18037 | 42 这个你就错了。纽约地铁明文规定不可以一个人占两个位子，袋子尤其不能放座位上。
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Attention-Straphangers-Don
Seat-Hog-80132472.html
Attention Straphangers: Don't Be a Seat Hog
Cops ticketing riders who take up more than one seat
By JENNIFER MILLMAN
Updated 1:59 PM EST, Sat, Dec 26, 2009 | Print
Think you can hog two seats on the subway at 3 a.m. when it's just you
and some drunkard in the car? Think again.
The NYPD is cracking down on subway seat hogs. That's right. Keep your
legs off the seat next to... 阅读全帖 |
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d******c
发帖数: 1069 | 43 来自主题: GunsAndGears版 - 杀猪消息 http://star.txstate.edu/node/5984
Hays County begins feral hog program
By Anonymous
Created Sep 18 2012 - 12:21am
Hays County, in partnership with Caldwell County, will be raising awareness
for a unique cause starting this October.
“Hog Out” is a Plum Creek Watershed Partnership program sponsored by the
Texas Department of Agriculture. The program aims at controlling the feral
hog population throughout counties across the state.
Beginning Oct. 1 and continuing through Dec. 31, residents will be ... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******y
发帖数: 60932 | 44 Today kmart dumped a bunch of toys on clearance most are around 66% off
Good this we all have free shipping..right??
If you dont read this thread
http:// />
Kmart-Toys & Games: Star WarsSPEED STARS Lightsaber Launchers Slave 1:
http://iway.org/9636491
((Ship)) sale:2.5 old:9.99 dis:75%
Kmart-Toys & Games: UFC Basic Octagon Kmart Exclusive:
http://iway.org/9636501
((Ship|SPU)) sale:10 old:39.99 dis:75%
Kmart-Toys & Games: Star WarsSPEED STARSLightsaber Launchers V-Wing
Starfighter:
http://iwa... 阅读全帖 |
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c***r
发帖数: 4631 | 45 Hog's head inn
Hog's head inn是dumbledore的弟弟经营的小旅馆。
说起Hog's head不知道多少人想过这个名字是什么意思。
显然这个词是猪头🐷的意思。
Hogshead还是一个液体，特别是酒的单位，一个Hogshead相当于大约一桶半葡萄酒或者
两桶啤酒，如果换算成升的话……和其他传统英国单位一样复杂……就不提了。
在莎士比亚的henry IV里面有一个Hogshead tavern。
不知道还有没有人记得Hog's head inn所在的hog's meade小镇在苏格兰的morray。
如果按照苏格兰的Clann（家族）来划分的话，大致在Clann Innes （Innes家族）的地
皮上。
Clan Innes 家族的族徽是一个猪头，如下。
这些苏格兰Clann的族徽很有意思。例如Clann Armstrong的族徽如下
想起来一首叫parting glass的歌，据说歌词是1600年Armstrong家族一个马匪被抓住了
，临砍头前留给家里的信。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4egb2... 阅读全帖 |
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c***r
发帖数: 4631 | 46 Hog's head inn
Hog's head inn是dumbledore的弟弟经营的小旅馆。
说起Hog's head不知道多少人想过这个名字是什么意思。
显然这个词是猪头🐷的意思。
Hogshead还是一个液体，特别是酒的单位，一个Hogshead相当于大约一桶半葡萄酒或者
两桶啤酒，如果换算成升的话……和其他传统英国单位一样复杂……就不提了。
在莎士比亚的henry IV里面有一个Hogshead tavern。
不知道还有没有人记得Hog's head inn所在的hog's meade小镇在苏格兰的morray。
如果按照苏格兰的Clann（家族）来划分的话，大致在Clann Innes （Innes家族）的地
皮上。
Clan Innes 家族的族徽是一个猪头，如下。
这些苏格兰Clann的族徽很有意思。例如Clann Armstrong的族徽如下
想起来一首叫parting glass的歌，据说歌词是1600年Armstrong家族一个马匪被抓住了
，临砍头前留给家里的信。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4egb2... 阅读全帖 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 47 (1) Where was, or were, wild hoar domsticated?
(a) Wild boar started out in Island Southeast Asia (ISEA).
Larson G et al, Worldwide Phylogeography of Wild Boar Reveals Multiple
Centers of Pig Domestication. Science, 307: 1618-1621 (2005)
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/307/5715/1618.full
("Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences from 686 wild and domestic pig
specimens place the origin of wild boar in island Southeast Asia (ISEA),
where they dispersed across Eurasia.")
Note: Generally believed to ... 阅读全帖 |
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c***r
发帖数: 4631 | 48 Hog's head inn
Hog's head inn是dumbledore的弟弟经营的小旅馆。
说起Hog's head不知道多少人想过这个名字是什么意思。
显然这个词是猪头🐷的意思。
Hogshead还是一个液体，特别是酒的单位，一个Hogshead相当于大约一桶半葡萄酒或者
两桶啤酒，如果换算成升的话……和其他传统英国单位一样复杂……就不提了。
在莎士比亚的henry IV里面有一个Hogshead tavern。
不知道还有没有人记得Hog's head inn所在的hog's meade小镇在苏格兰的morray。
如果按照苏格兰的Clann（家族）来划分的话，大致在Clann Innes （Innes家族）的地
皮上。
Clan Innes 家族的族徽是一个猪头，如下。
这些苏格兰Clann的族徽很有意思。例如Clann Armstrong的族徽如下
想起来一首叫parting glass的歌，据说歌词是1600年Armstrong家族一个马匪被抓住了
，临砍头前留给家里的信。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4egb2... 阅读全帖 |
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c***r
发帖数: 4631 | 49 Hog's head inn
Hog's head inn是dumbledore的弟弟经营的小旅馆。
说起Hog's head不知道多少人想过这个名字是什么意思。
显然这个词是猪头🐷的意思。
Hogshead还是一个液体，特别是酒的单位，一个Hogshead相当于大约一桶半葡萄酒或者
两桶啤酒，如果换算成升的话……和其他传统英国单位一样复杂……就不提了。
在莎士比亚的henry IV里面有一个Hogshead tavern。
不知道还有没有人记得Hog's head inn所在的hog's meade小镇在苏格兰的morray。
如果按照苏格兰的Clann（家族）来划分的话，大致在Clann Innes （Innes家族）的地
皮上。
Clan Innes 家族的族徽是一个猪头，如下。
这些苏格兰Clann的族徽很有意思。例如Clann Armstrong的族徽如下
想起来一首叫parting glass的歌，据说歌词是1600年Armstrong家族一个马匪被抓住了
，临砍头前留给家里的信。
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4egb2... 阅读全帖 |
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z*********n
发帖数: 94654 | 50 google is lard healthy
We're not going to make any health claims about lard -- because what do we
Taste editors know about health? -- but we can report what we've learned:
lard has 20 percent less saturated fat than butter; it's higher in
monounsaturated fats which are said to lower LDL cholesterol; and it has
none of the trans ...
头条hit:
Lard is healthy!
In recent generations, lard has seemed to completely disappear from home
kitchens. Until the early 1900’s, lard was a staple cooking fat acros... 阅读全帖 |
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