N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 1 Silver looks a bit heavier than gold as commercial short position
is a bit higher than that of last swing high. I used to think
HFund and Retail were fighting each other but charts showed me
Retail did not seem to care much while it's SWAP engaging HFund
instead just like the gold front.
A few weeks ago when silver was at the low 19.xx I said COT was
setup for a quick 10% move in either direction. We did get that
move when HFund was forced to unwind their shorts. To go higher
from here HFund has... 阅读全帖 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 2 Gold: Not much changed from last update so no new coverage.
Silver: Like I said two weeks ago, silver is not as bearish as gold
COT-setup-wisely. You can see on the commercial short BollingerBand
chart it's getting closer to the lower band. Bank & Prod group net
short position is even lower than that of the 2008 low. HFund group
is close to net short.
Such setup in a metal friendly environment would be very bullish but
we are in a metal slump season instead.
Interestingly the two speculative cam... 阅读全帖 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 3 金：截止NOV 19, BANK_PROD减持NET SHORTS，HFUND减持NET LONGS。SWAP还
有太多的NET SHORTS。卖压在下降，但还没到绝对安全的地步因为SWAP还在
里面折腾。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 4 银：截止NOV 19, BANK_PROD减持NET SHORTS，HFUND减持NET LONGS。RETAIL
还有太多的NET LONG, 上一周突然加持之后本周没有减仓。卖方可能会打击
RETAIL。总之有改善但还没到绝对安全的地步。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 5 GOLD: 截至NOV 26, 还在延续上次的趋势，BANK减SHORT, HFUND减LONG, SWAP
减SHORT。BANK已经净LONG了是个好兆头但是SWAP的SHORT仓仍然较大。感觉要
等到SWAP减持SHORT到10000-20000左右才算安全。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6 SILVER: 截至NOV 26, 看上去比GOLD弱一点。COMMERCIAL略减了一点SHORT，
HFUND继续砍LONG，都快NET SHORT了。SPEC RETAIL还在加LONG仓。
SPEC RETAIL是很难斗得过COMMERCIAL的，在熊市里加仓叫板COMMERCIAL不
是好事，很可能遭打击。建议不要跟进，等RETAIL和COMM对决结束后再上。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 7 最近太忙没多少时间POST。GOLD 截至DEC 03: BANK & PROD继续加净长仓，以
往都是净短。SWAP的短仓还是被卡住没有COVER多少，估计不会善罢甘休还要
继续制造震荡来COVER。HFund快要净短了。
记住COT上是没有绝对值来衡量顶或底，已经净短可以变得更短，已经净长的
可以更长。所以只能大概估计。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 8 SILVER 截至DEC 03: 感觉散户(RETAIL)的仓位还是太长。筑大底的时候不太
可能是让散户持长仓，庄家持短仓的。所以RETAIL SPEC这个偏高的长仓看上
去还是危险，短期上下波动都有可能。中期感觉还是要被压制。
好消息是COMMERCIAL的短仓持续下降，HFUND已变成净短，所以还是在筑底
过程中。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 9 GOLD:
感觉这一波快到头了，虽然乌克兰因素可能会导致一个短期小高潮。SWAP的
短舱看起来蛮吓人的。HFUND这边一直在倒短舱，所以二月份的RALLY看来是
挤短而已，不是真正的牛市众HF加长仓。挤短的原因是NEGATIVE GOFO。
本人不会在这里加长仓的，二月已获利的要锁利了。想烧的也要小心，自从7
月来举凡金价跌太狠GOFO就变负，然后就反弹。所以想烧的注意GOFO，一旦
变负赶快收手别跟GOFO叫板。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 10 GOLD: HFUND和SWAP现在多空主力，双方皆占有80%以上NET EXPOSURE。周三PET
砸盘之后双方的仓位应该下跌一些但肯定还是很重。中线上SWAP不会善罢甘休，
从BOLLINGER BAND上看应该会压继续施压到LOWER BAND。
短线上很难判断未来两礼拜走势，因为GOFO仍然持负所以实物市场压力未减，其
次UKRAINE暗流涌动可能干扰金价。感觉最好的姿态是中线烧加短线多做搭配。 |
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N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 11 After the latest bounce COT structure starts to look heavy again
as both SWAP & HFund positions went back to their March levels.
If bulls are unable to add fresh new long here then it may very
well fall back down again. I'd like to see gold rising maybe
another 2-3% to develop some kinda neg tech divergence so that I
could short it (w/ proper hedge). |
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e*******e
发帖数: 1144 | 12 Thanks for suggestions!
My concern is that (i'm not very sure about my viewpoint), in most cases,
the position for a Master in CS is something like quantitative developer,
which is even not a real quant. And even the worse, it is hard to get into
the essential part of the business if one starts from coding positions. On
the other hand, a decent PhD in CS, or a combination of CS/Finance masters
might have a chance to play some active roles rather than just work as a developer
in IBs or HFunds.
BT |
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