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y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 2 i actually defend his right to be a gambler. whatever amount of money he
wants to bet, it is his own biz, not government's. That also means when he
fails, it is not government business either, but his solely .
lol... |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 A new year is around the corner, and some climate scientists and
environmental activists say that means we're one step closer to a climate
Armageddon. But are we really?
Predicting the weather -- especially a decade or more in advance -- is
unbelievably challenging. What's the track record of those most worried
about global warming? Decades ago, what did prominent scientists think the
environment would be like in 2010? FoxNews.com has compiled eight of the
most egregiously mistaken predictions, ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 By James Lewis
We’ve just watched Obama commit an act of imperialistic aggression against
a peaceful sovereign state. Mubarak’s Egypt threatened no one. It was the
great pillar of stability in the Middle East for thirty years. Its
government was far more civilized than Iran, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan,
and fifty other corrupt and tyrannical members of the United Nations.
Obama’s whole spiel to the Left has been that he is an anti-colonial
socialist; that’s why he wrote Dreams from My Father. ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 5 Internet addiction has for the first time been linked with changes in the
brain similar to those seen in people addicted to alcohol, cocaine and
cannabis. In a groundbreaking study, researchers used MRI scanners to reveal
abnormalities in the brains of adolescents who spent many hours on the
internet, to the detriment of their social and personal lives. The finding
could throw light on other behavioural problems and lead to the development
of new approaches to treatment, researchers said.
An est... 阅读全帖 |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 6 Listen， a true conservative will never be a gambler... |
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f*********g
发帖数: 1637 | 7 Very good title to define his enterprise practice. From his history He is
more a gambler than an investor. |
|
c*****g
发帖数: 21627 | 8 Michael Lewis: Did Goldman Sachs Overstep in Criminally Charging Its Ex-
Programmer?
A month after ace programmer Sergey Aleynikov left Goldman Sachs, he was
arrested. Exactly what he’d done neither the F.B.I., which interrogated him
, nor the jury, which convicted him a year later, seemed to understand. But
Goldman had accused him of stealing computer code, and the 41-year-old
father of three was sentenced to eight years in federal prison.
Investigating Aleynikov’s case, Michael Lewis holds a s... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 9 Eight Botched Environmental Forecasts
By Maxim Lott
Published December 30, 2010
FoxNews.com
A new year is around the corner, and some climate scientists and
environmental activists say that means we're one step closer to a climate
Armageddon. But are we really?
Predicting the weather -- especially a decade or more in advance -- is
unbelievably challenging. What's the track record of those most worried
about global warming? Decades ago, what did prominent scientists think the
environment would be... 阅读全帖 |
|
m********8
发帖数: 7463 | 10 1. 地富反坏右 worry about things they’ve already lost.(sunk-cost fallacy,自
己去古狗,wiki)
2. 地富反坏右 incorrectly predict odds. ( gambler’s fallacy,自己去古狗,wiki)
3. 地富反坏右 surround themselves with information that matches their
beliefs
. 捡自己爱听的说，不爱听就骂。可惜忠言逆耳。凉药苦口。(Confirmation bias.
自己去古狗,wiki）
4：地富反坏右 非要做点什么事情，然后把有县的人气，资源，时间精力浪费到无意
义的挣扎里面去。 （ Bias Toward Action。https://dschool.stanford.edu/groups/
k12/wiki/548fb/Bias_Toward_Action.html）
还有很多，篇幅所限不一一列举赘述了。 |
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t*******y
发帖数: 21396 | 11 哈哈，那么这个呢？脸肿了末？
http://aattp.org/ts-official-white-folks-in-red-states-are-the-
It’s Official: White Folks in Red States are the Biggest Food Stamp ‘
Moochers’ in the Country!
According to a TIME analysis of county-by-county food stamp enrollment data,
GOP politicians represent more districts that majorly participate in SNAP
than Democrats.
From the TIME report:
While congressional districts with the absolute highest levels of enrollment
are more likely to be represented by Democrats, many rural ... 阅读全帖 |
|
l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 12 Terrorist Arrests in Germany, Belgium; Nine Warning Signs Ignored; Could
Attacks Have Been Prevented?
In the wake of the terrorist activity in Paris that killed close to 150
people in eight separate attacks, the Investigation Widens to Germany and
Belgium.
Three Key Developments
● Belgium charges two men in connection with the Paris attacks
● Germany arrests five people in a town close to the Belgian border
● France has authorized the distribution of an antidote for nerve gas
The investigati... 阅读全帖 |
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d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 13 就是说赌徒认为以前赢钱的规律一定实用于下一次，结果连底裤都输掉。 |
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x**z
发帖数: 50 | 14 一个退休的millionaire，有房产，有飞机，衣食无忧，没有犯罪前科，经常到strip赌
博。按新闻说的情况，他的平均注码可以算high roller gambler。典型的一个有钱人
的退休生活模式。新闻说，屠杀之前他还在赌场赢了不少钱。这样的人会是一个杀人魔
，这也是很多人想不通的地方。
房间内那么多的武器和子弹，显然这场屠杀是有备而来。也许他只是案犯之一，还有其
他共犯或主犯。套间两个窗户被打破。按警方的说法，他轮流在两个窗口射击。有这个
必要吗？如果他想短时间最大规模的造成伤亡，只在一个窗口不就行了。两个窗口的夹
角角度并没有很大，射击角度在一个窗口就可以调整，没必要两个窗口跑来跑去。会不
会是当时有两个人在两个窗口同时射击。而那个主犯/共犯已经跑了？
总之，这个案件疑点很多。 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 15 这么大房间590一晚真不算贵，LV旅馆都这么便宜？而且他只住了一晚就开枪了， 十几
个箱子枪弹搬进去够紧张的。
On Sept. 28, the 64-year-old high-stakes gambler and real estate investor
checked into Mandalay Bay and specifically requested an upper-floor room
with a view of the Route 91 Harvest music festival, according to a person
who has seen hotel records turned over to investigators.
Paddock wasn't able to move into the room until Saturday, said the person,
who was not authorized to speak publicly and disclosed the information to
the AP on conditi... 阅读全帖 |
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T**********e
发帖数: 29576 | 16 IRS records show that Paddock was a successful gambler, earning at least $5
million in 2015. Some of that could be from other investments, but most of
it was from gambling, officials say. |
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a**e
发帖数: 8800 | 17 赌神或者黑客
： IRS records show that Paddock was a successful gambler, earning at least
$5 million in 2015. Some of that could be from other investments, but most
of it was from gambling, officials say. |
|
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m**m
发帖数: 5500 | 19 That could be a clear proof that China's stock market is a shitty one on
both directions. Lack of regulations, full of insider trades, and a lot more
, probably all turn retail investors into a bunch of gamblers.
Not saying US market is clean. We were "lucky" enough to witness the scary
collapse in 2008. So really nothing is for sure. If one decides to be in the
stock market, he has to protect his ass somehow, like not betting
everything he has. |
|
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j******a
发帖数: 1599 | 21 google " gambler's ruin", 经典的random walk. |
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A********e
发帖数: 354 | 22 【 以下文字转载自 Biology 讨论区 】
发信人: albertsmwk (.)(.), 信区: Biology
标 题: 第一批“青年千人计划”生物类@publication列表@
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 18 15:04:16 2011, 美东)
花了一个小时，深深的鄙视一下自己的无聊行径！！
125 蔡亮 男 1980年11月 复旦大学 生命
科学 2007年12月毕业于[美国]北卡大学 [美国]加州大学旧金山分校 博士后
Cai L, Mostov K. Polarity is destiny. Cell. 2009 Nov 13;139(4):660-2. PubMed
PMID: 19914162; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC2900917.
Cai L, Makhov AM, Schafer DA, Bear JE. Coronin 1B antagonizes cortactin and
remodels Arp2/3-containing actin branche... 阅读全帖 |
|
l********o
发帖数: 5629 | 23 【 以下文字转载自 JobHunting 讨论区 】
发信人: flashfox (闪电狐狸), 信区: JobHunting
标 题: 【讨论】作为即将决定去FLGT的小博，谈谈我的看法
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Nov 15 15:09:37 2015, 美东)
本人某村小博，现在有FLGT某几家offer，另有UA这些pre-IPO创业公司的offer。
我的看法，其实是围绕着“稳定”和“挑战”两个对立的关键词的（至少大部分时候是
对立的，也是我们作出选择的考量）。我的结论是，这两个关键词同时存在于FLGT和
pre-IPO的这两个选择中。
在第一层的思路里面，这个时候选择去FLGT，无疑是为了“稳定”。稳定的工作，不用
担心随时被裁，不用担心做的事情没人带，不用担心股票不能兑现，不用担心绿卡给不
给办，不用担心进错了组满盘皆输（大公司换组更方便，更不伤感情），如此种种。而
去Uber和Airbnb无疑是意味着“挑战”，和机遇：股票翻番，担当重任，不用过多纠结
在“杜拉拉升职记”一样的人事之中，可以充满激情地搬砖（这，可能也只是我一厢情
愿的猜测）。
不可否认，如... 阅读全帖 |
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w******e
发帖数: 411 | 24 他是赌博，赌了两年多了，找过什么counselling之类的，但都没用，去年年底，我给
自己定了一年为期，如果还赌，那就分了。好过几个月，上个月发现他有在赌。我觉得
就彻底死心了。我现在才明白，为什么因赌博而离婚的人当中，最普遍的原因竟然都不
是经济因素，是那种心理折磨。
他不是我想要的类型，但既然结婚了，总不能这样甩手就走，而且counsellor也说过，
这种事情当父母的几乎管不了，（我现在知道夫妻也很难），我对他的影响力还算大一
点。我也努力了，但这个过程那么多失望，我相信一定说的话也伤过他。 真要分，反
倒说不清自己的感觉了，我一直以为自己不那么爱他，可为什么这么为他难受？赌博是
条不归路，74%的gambler是以离婚收场的，而离婚后很少有人能真正戒掉，以后的生活
可以想象。
counsellor也跟我说，你要做个选择。我也知道我该选择，他所做的其实都是逼我做出
那一步，可这个过程还真是难过，于心不忍，就象看着一个人，还是你的家人滑下悬崖
，你会不由自主地想伸手，可你知道你伸手的结果很可能是把自己也带下去了。实在是
个两难的处境。一个朋友总问我的，那你自己呢？是啊，我自己呢？... 阅读全帖 |
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E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 25 I think, a quick answer to your question is, if you have no idea about what
you should do, keep it in T-C Lifecycle 2035-Rtmt is the best choice.
If you do something before you understand what it means, that's gambling.
Gambler will lose in the long run for sure.
-C
31 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 26 man, if you consider every risk-taker as a trader or a gambler, you are
going too far. As a matter of fact, you live through every day by a
matter of probabilities. But you call that life, you don't call that
gamble, right? |
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 27 Not many, but think about it.
It's like you play in vegas and lose, or you invest
for a gambler in vegas and lose. which one do you
prefer? |
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c**********l
发帖数: 606 | 28 it's the real interest that matters. if nominal interest rate is higher
than the inflation rate, gold tanks; vice versa.
since we just don't know where we are currently, longing or shorting gold is
only speculation. it's OK and even essential to have gold in your
portfolio if your risk tolerence is low (I am one of them). but going all-
in in any asset, including gold, is extremely risky and should be avoided at
any cost, unless you are a reckless gambler.
gold bugs (holding gold as their mai |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 29 You can. But that's something you should never touch, especially
if you want to hold over-night.
3x ETFs are a set of very bad designed financial products that only
works for gamblers. |
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l******i
发帖数: 1404 | 30 我也在股版呆过一段时间的。，因为有gamblers' ruin的因素影响，技术再高的TA一直
玩下去也很有可能功亏一篑。而且大家动不动就是all in fas/ faz之类的，纯粹赌博
。股版不断造神，然后不断的换股神，从大傻蛋到秋之皓月和DJBWSN和psp到后来的荷
包和秋月师傅然后到今天的U神(unlinc)，都是这么个套路。
这里版主stockdemon以前是股版的版主，我个人觉得他在中长期投资方面very
visionary。
目前没有好的投资方向，将来希望stockdemon有想法的话能够在版上多发帖，提出适当
的中线和长线的个人投资建议。 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 31 Personally I don't like ETFs. The flexibility will usually do more
bad rather than good.
The ETF industry has been growing so fast that the qualities across
the board cannot be guaranteed. Many ETFs target fancy sectors to
attract "investors" (most of them are actually gamblers), but with
serious design flaws in them.
I would suggest you stick with MFs. As an investor, you don't need
the flexibility ETF claims.
Companies |
|
C****n
发帖数: 2324 | 32 I have the same goal as yours, except:
1. Pick 20 - 50 stocks? Goodness, that's like a fund manager. You have the
skill to do that? And balance them every year? or month?
2. these stocks can have 3.5 - 4% yield? Can you recommend me some?
By the way, if you have $1M, and you will buy $1M stock? Isn't that too
risky? You sounds like a gambler. What about another financial crisis like
the one in 2008 or even 1929?
had
low;
great
stocks
average
be |
|
D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 33 wow, i went through several pages of that thread. as some one said, this is
indeed an EPIC thread. the guy ( with the name Marketimer who tried the idea
of the book) is extremely intelligent and writes like a master. In a style
almost like a diary, he documented his agonizing journey from 2007 up till
now. this is an excerpt he wrote on nov 15, 2008. SP500 was at 800 two days
later.
"...Just a few days earlier, MYR 2.0 had crash landed at S&P 821. I received
the news by email on my iPhone at Qdo... 阅读全帖 |
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D*****t
发帖数: 558 | 34 Stick to a low cost balanced fund or a portfolio with fixed asset allocation
. This is the idea I want to express all along. But the NYT piece said
better than I do.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/28/your-money/forget-market-timi
I have to admit I haven't followed my own advice 100%. I allow myself with 5
% speculative component in my portfolio. I would like to get rid of it. But
the gambler inside me wouldn't let go. I figure this may set my retirement
age back for several yrs.
Peter Lynch said... 阅读全帖 |
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M********r
发帖数: 278 | 35 Although I don't time the market on large scale and keep my overall
allocation fixed, the gambler inside me, whom I will eventually kill off, do
allow myself about 5% room to do whatever i see fit. My equity allocation
has been 5% lower than target for more than a year now. The recent move in
10 yr yield is especially worrisome. |
|
J*****n
发帖数: 4859 | 36
也不是很多，就一个简单的Markov Chain而已，她自己不是很懂，就说我的答案是错的！
还问那个Gambler Ruin的问题，让我在电话里面给她说那么复杂的公式。
其实很烦这种大公司里面工作了一两年的人来面试，懂得其实不一定比我多，一个个还
拽拽的。 |
|
n*******y
发帖数: 453 | 37 嗯， martingale 好像只可以说明期望在 50～100之间
gambler ruin 具体怎么做 |
|
f******x
发帖数: 201 | 38 本人某村小博，现在有FLGT某几家offer，另有UA这些pre-IPO创业公司的offer。
我的看法，其实是围绕着“稳定”和“挑战”两个对立的关键词的（至少大部分时候是
对立的，也是我们作出选择的考量）。我的结论是，这两个关键词同时存在于FLGT和
pre-IPO的这两个选择中。
在第一层的思路里面，这个时候选择去FLGT，无疑是为了“稳定”。稳定的工作，不用
担心随时被裁，不用担心做的事情没人带，不用担心股票不能兑现，不用担心绿卡给不
给办，不用担心进错了组满盘皆输（大公司换组更方便，更不伤感情），如此种种。而
去Uber和Airbnb无疑是意味着“挑战”，和机遇：股票翻番，担当重任，不用过多纠结
在“杜拉拉升职记”一样的人事之中，可以充满激情地搬砖（这，可能也只是我一厢情
原的猜测）。
不可否认，如果只从眼前考虑的话，去FLGT无疑赢得了稳定，而去pre-IPO无疑是拥抱
了挑战（正如Airbnb的某个核心价值一样）。
但是，如果我们跳入了第二个层次的思路里面，看法就不一样了。Uber和Airbnb是很大
可能上市的，但是现在去已经不能算好时候了。如果去了这些公司，那就得做好和... 阅读全帖 |
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W***n
发帖数: 11530 | 39 U r a good gambler
...... |
|
f*****g
发帖数: 15860 | 40 my personal feeling is like:
1) the most aggressive housing gamblers have been wiped out in last 3 years
(just like the above 坐以待毙VS迎难而上 mentioned).
for them, the pain is strong and quick, then over. either they run away with
bank cash or banks get bailed out by gov.
2) now it hurts most for those relatively conservative or mainstream buyers,
who bought houses during last 5 years. most of them are actually underwater
(quite some friends of mine, and include myself if i have to sell quickly
today |
|
w*******g
发帖数: 9932 | 41 agreed. Can't trust a gambler. It is a disease with no cure. |
|
d*********2
发帖数: 48111 | 42 well, we r not talking about values. we r talking about examples.
if u can give some real examples, except those born to be rich and gamblers.
I would like to be encouraged to take ur value upon examples. |
|
w*****m
发帖数: 20421 | 43 中国就没有破产保护，米国选择破产无非这几种情况
1.买了房子当ATM，房子贬值水下太多
2.GAMBLER，输掉了房子老婆孩子，输掉了资产，欠了一屁股债
3.投资失败，欠了巨额债务 |
|
t*m
发帖数: 208 | 44 If his purpose is to benefit himself when swimming back, he is just a
gambler; if he desired to benefit everyone like Libing, there is no reason
to blame him. 大行不顾细谨.Think this way, China was like N. Korea at that
time. Will or dare any one go to back N. Korea now? |
|
p*******g
发帖数: 2976 | 45 【 以下文字转载自 Biology 讨论区 】
发信人: albertsmwk (.)(.), 信区: Biology
标 题: 第一批“青年千人计划”生物类@publication列表@
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Aug 18 15:04:16 2011, 美东)
花了一个小时，深深的鄙视一下自己的无聊行径！！
125 蔡亮 男 1980年11月 复旦大学 生命
科学 2007年12月毕业于[美国]北卡大学 [美国]加州大学旧金山分校 博士后
Cai L, Mostov K. Polarity is destiny. Cell. 2009 Nov 13;139(4):660-2. PubMed
PMID: 19914162; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC2900917.
Cai L, Makhov AM, Schafer DA, Bear JE. Coronin 1B antagonizes cortactin and
remodels Arp2/3-containing actin branche... 阅读全帖 |
|
s*********y
发帖数: 689 | 46 David Seetapun is an English logician, investment banker and fisherman.
[edit]Biography
He received a PhD in logics from Cambridge in 1991, under Robert I. Soare,
the topic was "Contributions to recursion theory".[1][2] During the fall of
1990, Seetapun was said to have "'used a very interesting 0'"- priority
argument to prove that every r.e. degree 0 < a < 0' is locally noncappable,
namely (35) (Va) o < a < o' (3c) a < c (Vb) b < c[anb = 0 => b = 0".[3] He
went on to a post-doctoral position at... 阅读全帖 |
|
c*c
发帖数: 58 | 47 Las Vegas的赌场有很多赌种，但有一个基本原则，就是不管哪一种赌博方式，the house
maintains a slight edge over the gambler, 一般是0-3%. 也就是说，在赌博次数足够
多的条件下，总赌注的1-2%将流入赌场的手里，从而保证赌场永远都能赚钱。
回到创业的话题，不管你想做什么，都会有很多人已经或者正在做类似的事情，在与你竞
争。那么在你选定项目之前，你应该问自己，what is your edge over the others? 如
果你没有好的答案，就应该暂时按兵不动，或者寻找其他项目。Not betting is better
than placing bad bets. |
|
b******y
发帖数: 9224 | 48 When you are in a startup mode, I guess you don't need to care about the
valuation of your website/venture. I like what's in that song "the gambler:
you don't count your money,
when you are sitting at the table,
there will be time enough for counting,
when the deal is done! |
|
b******y
发帖数: 9224 | 49
BJD, you got it! I totally agree.
I don't believe forecast. Doing stock is a gambler's game. You just can't
rely on machines to make the call.
Use your instinct, and your experience with the market.
Any AI/machine technology is doomed for failure. |
|
c********t
发帖数: 4527 | 50 so called penny stocks, only a way to reflect the price is cheap, pennies.
However, penny stocks do have a lot of downside/risks. Let's be realistic.
I am a gambler myself, love potential.
But you gotta admit the risk of penny stocks are higher unless you are so
biased (or stupid).
penny stock are more easily to be manipulated as the price/value is low. A
lot of fish has the power to do so, and they will do so to suck blood from
small fish. For example, definitely trust (rely on) much much less |
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