p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 1 According to scan result, TSC is a little big less than NSC. |
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i****s
发帖数: 1152 | 2 鼎分析
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 4 I guess only 70%-80% 08 and 09PD submitted their 485 in Jan and Feb
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K |
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D******g
发帖数: 2717 | 6 70%, 80% is not "only"... |
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t**c
发帖数: 7480 | 7 conclusions?
Vermont also deals with refugee and asylum)
refugees and asylum is 16K |
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z*****a
发帖数: 1214 | 8 看不懂数据的人弱弱地问一句
如果4月不倒退，是不是本财政年倒退的可能性都不大了？ |
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l******d
发帖数: 1633 | 9 如果1月485用dymu的数据，NSC有15k，TSC估算有13k。如果假设2，3月都有同样的
demand,
10/2011 11/2011 12/2011 1/2012 2/2012 3/2012
NSC 10,000 9,500 12,800 15,000 15,000 15,000
TSC 8,824 8,382 11,294 13,235 13,235 13,235
总数是122K
再加上老赫说的20K去年大潮未绿，140K确实已经差不多了阿 |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 11 based dymu's data, 30K (TSC+NSC) per month |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 12 NSC 1, 2两个月一共才不到2500个140，一年就是1w5的量，全国有4个处理中心？这样
一年才6万个？要知道烙印的140也在里面啊，怎么可能这么少，大牛们不是都说烙印每
个月都有4000个PERM么？ |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 13 NSC, TSC, and VSC process 140. But processing timeframe in VSC is 2007 so
this can be excluded. So only 2 centers process 140. |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 14 So even TSC has 3 times more 140 than NSC, we still have very little 140
demand comparing to the whopping PERM numbers that people are reporting.... |
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p*****a
发帖数: 3634 | 15 From dymu's data, we can clearly see that 485 numbers in each months (from
Dec to Feb) is very closed to 15K in each center.
We can believe that O has already had plan in terms of how to advance the VB
. |
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a***a
发帖数: 4195 | 16 dymu 大虾 问个问题，你扫号是按号码的吧？ |
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i****d
发帖数: 724 | 17 一共三个tabs, 三个月一共批了 2359个 （造卡，决定，决定后）
good job, dymu! 数据很有用 |
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i****d
发帖数: 724 | 18 你算是比较理性的一个。你的心情当然理解，问题是要看客观现实，这VB已经是在飞速
前进了，可是他们有quota的限制的啊，别的不说，dymu自己扫出来的总是硬碰硬的了
吧，只要demand够了的话，这4月VB不可能再放卫星了。O再放的话，CIS都要找他麻烦
了。 |
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i****d
发帖数: 724 | 19 你算是比较理性的一个。你的心情当然理解，问题是要看客观现实，这VB已经是在飞速
前进了，可是他们有quota的限制的啊，别的不说，dymu自己扫出来的总是硬碰硬的了
吧，只要demand够了的话，这4月VB不可能再放卫星了。O再放的话，CIS都要找他麻烦
了。 |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 20 是否有2w，看dymu扫号结果吧。如果按照EB1-EB2ROW每个月5k的demand，就是中印2007
年4月到11月有10000的demand，我看这段时间顶多5k。
今年九月的真排期肯定要到09年的某个时候，因为12月加1月的库存无论如何也不够
supply。我觉得形势是乐观的，而且从140的demand来看，10和11的PD恐怕也不会等很
久。
07年放水1年半，结果大家等了4年才能递485，11-12放水3年，现在看最多也就等2年半
就能递485，这种形势不算悲观了。 |
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i********n
发帖数: 338 | 21 ding
很有意义的帖子，谢谢dymu的辛苦工作，
如果还有10，11月份的数据，大牛们就可以好好分析一下了，
对接下来的VB和拿卡时间会有更准确的判断。 |
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D******g
发帖数: 2717 | 22 扫不到吧，tsc的都是出了结果才online。 |
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i****2
发帖数: 119 | 23 right,
true statement for FEB Filers.
leave Feb Filers for now. hoho... |
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d**u
发帖数: 1065 | 25 扫了12月和1月的，空号不多(2K左右)，正在复查，485比NSC略少，但140很多。详情周一公布。
2月之后大量空号，看来还要等上一阵子。 |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 27 140不多就见鬼了，哈哈
我之前算过，140至少得有NSC的3倍才make sense，5倍都正常。
周一公布。 |
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i****2
发帖数: 119 | 28 这个要顶.
dymu要顶!!
就是tsc太衰,
2月的filers totally no status.
打电话了,
答曰,"木有人知道为神马,
亦木有人晓得when it will come back."
不服不行. |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 29 quick conclusion:
there are 52k 485 demand generated in Dec and Jan.
quick assumption: # of PD current but not submit in Dec and Jan == # of
485
submitted are not in EB2IC
there are 52k demands before Jan 2009 for EB2IC.
40k annual supply, and 20k SO, 20k row, and some 485 consumed in Oct and
Nov
, Cut off day will stop around 07/2008 this summer
**********************
ok, according to last year
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for... 阅读全帖 |
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a***a
发帖数: 4195 | 30 扫出来的 ４８５是混在一起的，当然，大部分是 EB2CI,所以估计能再前进几个月。 |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 31 my assumption:
quick assumption: # of PD current but not submit in Dec and Jan == # of 485
submitted are not in EB2IC
many PD current can't submit in Dec and Jan due to the delay of lawyers or
other reasons. PD 08 may submit in Feb or March |
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B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 32 52k are all EB2?
485
Nov |
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a***a
发帖数: 4195 | 33 他是估算，看样子大概１０月前最多能批到０８年１２月底。
不过要是奥傻不退排期，大家就一个槽里抢食了，看运气了。 |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 34 no, but not all 08PD submitted their 485 in Feb..... |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 35 EB1 demand is not the same as those unlucky Jan/Feb filers.
EB1 and NIW demand is MUCH MUCH MUCH higher.... |
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w*********r
发帖数: 613 | 36 大致这么算算，应该到2008年10——12月的配额就差不多了吧？不过就目前情况来说，
排期不倒退，显然是拼人品了。好像去年十一月和十月的RD还有一些人没批。十二月有
没批的，一月的就有开始批的了。显然排期跃进范围太大，在这个范围里面，运气成分
占比就很大了。前后能有一年的落差。 |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 37 ok, according to last year
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
now we have 52k in Dec and Jan, assume 1/3 of PD 2008 can't submit their 485
in Jan, which is 9.6k.
those number are close. the problem is that how many 485 are for FB? |
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a***a
发帖数: 4195 | 38 据说 FB 不扔到 NSC 和 TSC.
不是很清楚。
485 |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 40 so 52k is about the number of PD before 2009. |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 41 and like last year, EB2IC has 20k so + own 8k numbers
EB2CI only has 28k supply this year.
it needs at least two years to clear PD before 2009.......... |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 42 EB45 goes to EB1 to SO as well. They have about 10k. So EB1 and EB2ROW
filings should be around 5k per month.
I don't think 1/3 of Jan filers will miss 485 by the end of Jan. 10% at most
How about refugees 485? I remember it is a huge number.
485 |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 43 ok, let us assume the best case:
all 08 PD submitted their 485 before Feb
Total 485 submission: 52k
Eb2row and Eb1 monthly use caculation
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
therefore, EB2IC before 2009 submitted in Dec and Jan has 52k-8.4k=43k
It should be more than 43k since not all NOV submitted 485 got approved.
assume we have 25k SO for EB2IC this year, our own 8k supply. total supply
is 32k. ... 阅读全帖 |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 45 He should resign.... lol |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 47 ft, I was calculating and arguing with him ALL THE TIME. What did you do by
the way? |
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p***e
发帖数: 29053 | 48 ok, let us assume the best case:
1. all 08 PD submitted their 485 before Feb
2. Total 485 submission: 52k from dymu
Eb2row and Eb1 monthly use caculation:
we have 30k SO from eb2 ROW and eb1: history data
So they used 80k-30k=50k for 12 months
50k/12= 4.2k per month for Eb1 and EB2row, 2 months is 8.4k
therefore, EB2IC before 2009 submitted in Dec and Jan has 52k-8.4k=43k
The number maybe more than 43k since not all NOV submitted 485 got approved.
assume we have 25k SO for EB2IC this year, plus ... 阅读全帖 |
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s******t
发帖数: 926 | 49 Your numbers don't match ah.
If you estimated "Other EB" demand is 5k per month, that's 60k per year,
adding 40k EB3, we should have 40k quota, instead of 32k.
Also, 15k for EB2CI in Oct/Nov??? That many? I think the total 485 inventory
is only several thousand at the end of September (based on Apr.15, 2007
cutoff). How could it be 15k? If you are talking about submissions, we can
let dymu run Oct/Nov submissions to take a look. I don't think there could
be 15k given Dec/Jan is only 22k. |
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B*****g
发帖数: 34098 | 50 re, dymu辛苦一下吧
inventory |
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