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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 2 充分的准备，决定性的胜利---介入DNDN战役决策过程
关于DNDN公司药物提交FDA专家委员会评议的消息，我想DQ大部分朋友
在两天前就已知晓，但介入的人数可能有限。 原因无非是心中无数，评议
如属正面，股价至少翻番，如是偏向负面，其惨重结局也不难想像。
我较大量介入了DNDN, 并发了实时帖。我只所以敢于较大量介入，并不是
瞎猫碰到死蚝子---撞大运，而是如同半年来我的几次较大的投资（GROW,
CYTR, ROCM, LJPC),都是进行过战役准备的。
在决定大量介入DNDN前，我和朋友对这个公司作了研究，查阅了其临床三期
实验资料，对其提交的药物，我俩交换了意见。从专业来讲，我的体认深一
些，在临床实验的设计，实施，资料的收集，整理和分析，他是这方面的专家。
战情分析：
1．前列腺癌是美国男性恶性肿瘤第一杀手。而晚期转移癌患者，则是
阎王不请自己去，临床毫无应对之力。
2．既往，疫苗只是用于疾病，特别是传染病的预防。将疫苗用于肿瘤
特别是用于晚期转移前列腺癌患者的免疫治疗，是癌肿临床治疗学的重大突破。
也就是说是开僻了恶性肿瘤临床治疗的新途径。
3．恶性肿瘤治疗的三板斧，即手术 |
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p****a
发帖数: 4829 | 3 恩。其实，当初跌倒7块以下的时候应该做下FA homework的。那个时候DNDN的市值才1个
billion。保守估计DNDN的这个药3－4年后是可以达到1个Billion的sales的。这样的话DNDN
至少值2－3个billion. 所以7块钱的时候绝对是deeply undervalued. 如果DNDN能下10块，我
可能会买点。 |
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S****r
发帖数: 472 | 4 Not sure, if it is, won't last long. $65 is almost price perfection.
My quick calculation (FA) on what DNDN should worth:
There is 28,000 PC patient died each year in the US, assume half of them
could use the treatment.
Assume the Provenge is priced at $70K per annual treatment (may be higher or
lower, but should be comparable to current standard cost)
So DNDN annual sale should reach 28000/2*70000 or roughly 1 bln. Give DNDN
50% margin and 140 mil potential outstanding shares. The eps will be $ |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 5 昨天我在这里贴了一个VEDIO,就是NBC对DNDN的报道.
这东西是绝对供不应求,每年患者要花93000刀药钱.
几个大药厂已经开始行动了.
参加药试的几个病人说:好的很,以前卧床不起的,现在都是到处跑步,而且没啥副作用.
治疗过程也很神奇:抽出患者的血,加药再送回去.
已经有不少国外医院给DNDN联系了.估计也是国外领导和富人能用得起.
DNDN的市值2023年被估计要提高5倍. |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 6 A Medicare advisory panel is scheduled to vote tomorrow on whether to accept
Dendreon Corporation's (NASDAQ:DNDN) prostate cancer drug, Provenge. The
fate of the company - and certainly its stock price - hangs (in the near
term) in the balance of this decision. While the panel is supposed to
consider only whether Dendreon has produced sufficient evidence proving that
Provenge extends patients' lives, many have doubted approval based on the
price tag.
The drug, Dendreon's only product, costs a wh... 阅读全帖 |
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y**a
发帖数: 143 | 7 能分享你现在买DNDN的理由吗？ 因为3月可能会有利好消息，最近关注DNDN。发现每天
都是小成交量，不管大盘怎么长，价格都被压在35左右，好像还没有启动的迹象，不知
会不会继续下行。这和JPM最近finance DNDN有没有关系？ |
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u****c
发帖数: 736 | 8 两个股日线都在企稳中，DNDN还在调整，MCP已经有站稳的趋势
我早盘开盘后全仓这两个股中
Jan 25 早盘
MCP - 28.77 53%
DNDN - 13.88 47%
(JNPR 23.07, 23.05全出 DNDN 13.86， 13.88， 13.91买入 MCP 28.75, 28.77,
28.79, 28.80买入) |
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o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 9 just an example
Jan 25 早盘
MCP - 28.15 32%
DNDN - 13.88 26%
(DNDN 14.90, 14.89减仓 MCP 30.61 30.58减仓)
-----------------
Jan 25 早盘
MCP - 28.15 53%
DNDN - 13.88 47%
(MCP 30.98, 30.99卖出 30.73，30.72，30.71接回，相当于成本降低0.27) |
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Y****3
发帖数: 963 | 10 买dndn！
因为我卖了的一般第二天就涨！
DNDN - 03:29:31
Sold 3500s @ $2.8601 - Total: $10,010.17
DNDN - 03:29:31
Sold 2500s @ $2.8601 - Total: $7,143.12 |
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m******c
发帖数: 1202 | 11 dndn借的债是资产的110%， 好像有一笔15年到期，现在利率上涨，dndn能熬过这关就
会起飞，熬不过真不知怎样。个人认为fed能控制住利率，dndn就会turn around. |
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 12 dndn现在已经热的发紫了
还记不记的当年还有一个和dndn－Provenge做类似的公司，cege－GVAX，后来临床运气
不好,破产卖给了bpax，bpax现在也在继续开发GVAX免疫治疗， |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 13 世界上这是第一个疫苗.
我预料,DNDN将在半年内被收购.
DNDN根本没本事和能力去供应世界需要.
世界是它的市场. |
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t*********n
发帖数: 278 | 14 记得N年前，DNDN 一度从3刀冲到了20多，后来因为FDA REVIEW 之后，说他的药需要更
多的证据。DNDN 又一个跟头跌倒了5刀。当时REVIEW 是不是就是现在这个药？ |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 15 这个我是严重看好.
现在就是和MM一个价,大MM的价在46-55,
所以绝对是可买的股,赔不了的.
现在就是MM要不要再震,下去50? 我认为几乎不可能,不过也不排除短暂下50给咱捞底的
机会.
给西亚图的同学打电话了,DNDN现在牛的很,弄了个新大楼.
CEO说坚决不卖公司.
我看不到半年,就要炒做M买断的新闻了.
目标价大于100.
最近是观察买底的时机,OE要是弄下来就更好了.
很多都是从10-20拿过来的,震仓就是震这些人的.
唯一担心是DNDN发行新股. |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 16 我是说我的观点,我早声明过,我是大青蛙一个.
我说的长期持有没问题,但我手里没一股了,
为什么?
因为我白天也炒股,当然可以反复买,卖赚波段千;
另外,这个DNDN居然也捻大盘,估计是哪个MM的程序就是这样一来设计的.
现在DNDN $50.6 的车票,
我不买了.
明天再买不晚,我是看这个50到底能破不能.
破了50,那本青蛙可就是大卡车装了. |
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P*B
发帖数: 2876 | 17 ZT
DNDN
Daily Commentary
Our system posted a HOLD today. The previous BUY recommendation was issued
on 05.24.2010 (1) day ago, when the stock price was 42.3000. Since then DNDN
has gained 1.18% .
Our advice today is simple and clear. Hold your stocks and wait for a new
signal.
Do not bother yourself with further buying and selling as long as the HOLD
tag stays. |
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B*********e
发帖数: 909 | 18 i just checked my account and found that my limit sell position on DNDN (37)
was filled this Morning.
Anybody knows what happened to DNDN?
in Tokyo now, it is humid and hot.... |
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S****r
发帖数: 472 | 19 I have more money in HGSI than DNDN, its panel next week should result in
bigger boost to stock price than DNDN's. |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 20 If you don't know why, you should not trade DNDN.
March will be a big day for DNDN covered by medicare. |
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j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 21 想当年dndn fda刚通过的时候股版一个id号召大家去捡钱。刚才看了一下dndn的chart
。似乎他喊的那个价格这一年多中间从来没达到过。 |
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M*****8
发帖数: 17722 | 22 *** NOTE: PRICE TARGETS & CALCULATIONS ARE APPROXIMATE ***
(Minimum Cash Unit is $1000. Simply multiply for large sums.)
FORECAST FOR TICKER SYMBOL: DNDN AS OF 20111101 (YYYYMMDD)
CLOSING PRICE ON 20111101 was 10.9500
STOCK RATING: ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL
Short-Term Price Potential is DOWN: -0.0263 (-0.20%)
Short-Term Price Target: 10.9237
At Price Target, profit is 2.4018 on $1000 investment. (+0.24%)
Close out >= half of your short position at about 10.9237
There is a small chance of price re... 阅读全帖 |
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u****c
发帖数: 736 | 23 【 以下文字转载自 MoneyFriends 俱乐部 】
发信人: unlinc (hlmsem), 信区: MoneyFriends
标 题: 貌似 DNDN 又有再起一波的趋势
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Jan 25 03:17:12 2012, 美东)
我重仓账户全仓操作的DNDN今天走势很不错了,刚才打开图仔细瞅了瞅,貌似有起第二波
的趋势。
周三和周四，如果能回调到60分钟图BOLL中轨13.5附近，都是不错的机会。建议多关注！
如果能放量拉突破14，可以积极介入！ |
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j*****7
发帖数: 4348 | 24 I am NOT endorsing DNDN, merely laying out the possible scenarios.
If DNDN misses 2012 q1, then it will possibly revisit sub-10. |
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R******a
发帖数: 1195 | 25 Shares of Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) saw increased strength during Tuesday's
early morning trading session as investors bid up shares on further
speculation that the company may be in the works of selling itself.
There were rumors spreading on Twitter that Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) could be
looking to acquire Dendreon. Ian Estepan @ianestepan said, "There is nothing
stronger than the hope trade... $CELG for $DNDN making the rounds again..."
any comment on this rumor?
A couple analysts that Benzinga sp... 阅读全帖 |
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X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 27 DNDN的季报非常难读，因为销售不好，所以公司想方设法掩盖数据，尽量避免很多难看
的直接对比。但是，丑媳妇总是要见公婆的，只要看仔细了，要找的数据都能找到。
上个季度的er前，uni大牛看TA压大，我算FA压小，他全仓股票在pre-market跑了，没
亏，我重仓put 1x，也捞一票。我在这里说过很多遍，要多发言多讨论，牛人也是跟大
家一样的上班吃饭拉稀，一个破钟一天也要准两次呢。
这次我还是压小，因为看图上涨的成交量比上次er前要小得多，几回切腹后，dndn剩下
的庄家都是些妇孺老幼了，随便上个大资金的散户都能蹂躏她。
看了一下option, may 15 put的option价钱公道量又足。值得考虑 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 28 老牛不是说要地震么，威力真大。
dndn和sqnm能捞吗？可以上option.
dndn斯考特已经不让买了，要打电话。 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 29 cohen, soros 都有不少dndn， dndn事件改变了对biotech的估值和信心。需要点时间
来恢复呵。 |
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p********e
发帖数: 1960 | 30 Thanks 银杏!
I switched DNDN to HGSI Friday morning...Luckily, bought it back in the
afternoon.
Waiting for HGSI to have a DNDN-like movement as well |
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w*********7
发帖数: 2883 | 31 Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP Announces Investigation of Dendreon Corp.
11 minutes ago - BIZ via Comtex
BusinessWire
Faruqi & Faruqi, LLP, a national law firm concentrating on investor rights,
consumer rights and enforcement of federal antitrust laws, is investigating
potential wrongdoing at Dendreon Corp. ("Dendreon" or the "Company") (NASDAQ
federal securities laws in connection with statements made to the Company's
shareholders.
Request more information now by clicking here: www.faruqilaw.com/DNDN
Spe... 阅读全帖 |
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v**********m
发帖数: 5516 | 32 我赶紧查了一下dndn的cash，还能撑3个季度左右。dndn不是想卖股票吧？ |
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 33 1. INCY 的Jakafi 是 orphan drug design.
orphan drug 有不少优势，a）7年的market exclusive，b)政府部分和private
insurance 对orphan drug的cover是相当给力, c) fda 批的特别快 （INCY 这次非但
给priority review, 还提早了半个月批准）。还有一些其它隐形的benefit： 比如
orphan drug 治疗的病人数比较小，market的成本小很多，也容易控制. orphan drug
的价格可以开的很高，很离谱。
比如 alxn 的 Soliris 可以开到400K／year 的费用，价格大于100k/year 的orphan
drug 随处可见 （dndn 开到93k 就已经觉得太贵了）
2. Jakafi 是治疗mf的第一个新药，可以说是目前的特效药，而且是传统的口服药，所
以推广起来要容易很多。（对比于dndn要先抽血，然后运到工厂，分离培养，再运回去
，输入）。
Jakafi 目前开价84K/year. 一点不贵。
其实最近几年做orphan drug的... 阅读全帖 |
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v**********m
发帖数: 5516 | 34 由于这个？
Dendreon Agrees to Sell VICTRELIS(TM) (boceprevir) Royalty Interest for $125
Million
SEATTLE, Dec 06, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Dendreon Corporation DNDN -0.11%
today announced that it has agreed to sell for $125 million in cash its
royalty interest related to intellectual property licensed to Schering-
Plough Ltd. and Schering Corporation (collectively Schering, each now a
wholly owned subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.) and associated with VICTRELIS(
TM) (boceprevir), a treatment for chronic... 阅读全帖 |
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b*****h
发帖数: 783 | 35 DNDN 4Q 显示，revenue 虽然从3Q 的64M 增长到 77M， 但是其生产及其运营成本过高
没有改变。
3Q , 4Q 64M, 77M revenue 的product cost 分别是 55M, 57M. gross profit
margin 只有14％，25％，远远低于一般的biotech。 再加上昂贵的销售运营成本（3q:
85M, 4q: 76M), 盈利似乎看来很遥远。
DNDN 的personal drug的模式还需要摸索。希望他的新ceo能改变局面。。。 |
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c****x
发帖数: 127 | 36 This is a great day in our fight against cancer. The approval is gospel to
PC patients everywhere. I hope DNDN doesn't get bought out and can establish
itself as the biotech anchor for the great city of Seattle just like
Imclone once did.
Spread the words to everyone you know. |
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r****t
发帖数: 10904 | 37 r u DNDN's PR?
PC patients has long expected its approval. But from the price action I see
it is leaked only several minutes before the halt.
Now come to the question of production...
to
establish |
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E***X
发帖数: 885 | 38 Will DNDN open around 65? |
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J******e
发帖数: 2941 | 39 猛将兄啊。记得当年dow一天跌了700点的时候，只有DNDN一个股票是绿的，呵呵。 |
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h*****8
发帖数: 4754 | 40 我DNDN HALT前下了几个 OPTION SPREAD的买单
40P-38P 0.80
40P-38P 0.75
40C-45C 2.55
HALT前就0.80的单买上了，5.59-4.79=0.80
出消息后忘了CANCLE那个PUT SPREAD。
刚才看后面两个单也买上了。
40P-38P是0.75-0.10=0.65，现在值0.1不到
40C-45C是9.50-7.65=1.85，现在值4.3
难道让我浑水摸上鱼了？
晚上再查下帐号验证下。 |
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P*B
发帖数: 2876 | 41 这帖子好眼熟
一年前dndn jump from 5 to 20 时在大千好像看到过 |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 42 哈哈. 着个和想当年C-帅那个GPS公司道理一样,
半年内肯定被买断.就看哪个公司出钱高了.
DNDN真是个不屈不挠的小公司啊! |
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a*******8
发帖数: 2636 | 43 兄弟的DNDN真不错，可惜我没买。能看出来你是大牛。赞一个！ |
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n**********1
发帖数: 1534 | 44 昨天没有买dndn，能给个今天的pick不，让我也捞上一次？
昨天的pcbc被套惨了！ |
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d******i
发帖数: 170 | 45 大牛，现在买DNDN还来得及吗？昨天和今天都涨得太多，不敢入。还是要等跌的时候再
入？ |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 46 我也是不敢啊.
但想想BIDU一天都15%,
这个治病救人的为啥不行???
我就豁出去了.
DNDN为这天花了快10年,1B$
就要发礼炮三天! |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 47 Dendreon Pricing Comes in Higher-than-Expected
Dendreon Corporation (DNDN, Free Analysis), a biotechnology company focused
on cancer treatments, saw its shares jump sharply higher in early trading
after confirming approval of Provenge by the FDA and saying that its pricing
point would be around $93,000 annually, which is much higher than many
analysts were expecting.
As a result, some analysts are projecting hefty profits for the biotech firm
, ranging from $1.1 billion in 2014 to $4.3 billion b |
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c*******4
发帖数: 6 | 48 in 6 six months, we will see a lot "class action lawsuit filed against DNDN"
mark my words
see too many tragedies in bio's |
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b***x
发帖数: 1596 | 49 不懂就不要瞎说鸟，癌症药物不大容易被人抓着把柄，死了是应该的，不死是运气好
16块买的，57.5卖了今天，哈哈哈
未来几天还会pull back一点，长期很看好，被收购的可能性很大
DNDN" |
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