h******q
发帖数: 865 | 1 don't remember where did I find this (maybe here?) but something interesting:
Delegation:
NURSING ASSISTANT
- ADLs/Noninvasive
- Assist
- Remind/Reinforce: usually reminds pt. TO do something rather than HOW to
do it (skills previously taught by other health care professional or
precaution measures)***
* Usually in regards to ADLs (hygiene, nutrition, ambulating, skin care),
turning, repositioning, cough deep breathe ROM *
- Special positioning-- requires initial education by RN -- assistant wil... 阅读全帖 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 5 这number of delegates determination还真够傻逼的。 |
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m***y
发帖数: 14763 | 7 你是不是把dem delegate和elector搞混了？
南卡的electoral votes是9票，还算合理啊。至于猪党党内给他们多少票，这个咱右棍
不好管。 |
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B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 8 说的是delegate,南卡黑鬼遍地的深红州54个，Vermont深蓝州16个。 |
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t***o
发帖数: 462 | 9 【 以下文字转载自 USANews 讨论区 】
发信人: globalized (none), 信区: USANews
标 题: delegate math (ZT)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Mar 10 19:07:16 2008)
那个叫wuyongquan的人数学太烂，乱算，我转帖一个别人的普选票预测，已经包含了佛
罗里达和密歇根的票数。
预测按这样的算法： 有Rasmussenreports民调的，按民调分配选票，不足一张的四舍
五入，没有民调的的几个小州因为倾向性比较强，一律按预估谁占优势就是60：40估算
选票
Obama Hillary
Mississippi 33 19 14
Pennsylvania 151 63 88
Guam 3 1 2
Indiana 66 33 33
North Carolina 91 49 42
West Virginia 26 10 16
Kentucky 47 19 28
Oregon 48 29 19
Montana 15 9 6
South Dakota 14 8 6
Puerto Rico 55 22 33
Flo |
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m*****n
发帖数: 5245 | 12
campaign,
That is so true.
Since Obama is gaining more and more delegates, Clinton should quit,
or shouldn't she?
We will wait and see, how the so successful campaign collapes
due to its leader's poor judgement. |
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s*******u
发帖数: 2249 | 13 (CNN) -- Democrats accused former colleague Sen. Joe Lieberman of
misleading the Republican National Convention when he addressed them in a
speech Tuesday night.
Joe Lieberman felt the brunt of Democratic attacks after he said Barack
Obama didn't reach across party lines.
Joe Lieberman felt the brunt of Democratic attacks after he said Barack
Obama didn't reach across party lines.
A senior Barack Obama campaign adviser said Lieberman flat-out lied when he
told delegates that Obama never successf |
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a**t
发帖数: 3833 | 14 Democratic candidate President Barack Obama is running uncontested in this
race, and is expected to receive all delegates. |
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s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 15 You are right, but I suspect this one delegate is important. |
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A*****a
发帖数: 52743 | 16 多好的民主选举啊
希拉里先是抛硬币赢了Iowa，然后delegates赢了NH |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 19 Rubio 退了后，都变成unbound， 但Rubio 大概能控制有20%，其它80% 技术上变成所
谓民主党的 “super delegate”，
但要每个州，自己决定，州和州的规则都不一样，trump，cruz，kasich可以做工作争
取这些。 |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 21 现在是660多，比预期，基本把输的ohio 给补会来了，领先cruz 250 左右，cruz
underperform for sure。
现在kasich在，即使math上毫无可能，但成了另一个target，反GOP建制派的 voters
更加看到GOP 的另一面。
再一个，通过ohio，TX，FL的初选，相对公平的说，大部分gop primary voters （除
去一些caucus）还是相当有独立意识的，对他们来说，投票就是主要表达对候选人的支
持。
Ohio，最明显，因为是在初选GOP的总统提名人，不是在评估州长，kasich拿下ohio，
剩下的delegate也不够了，但大部分ohio 选民投kasich，因为肯定 州长的业绩，即使
相当于投了“废票”。
另外，大部分 voter 还是看你的工作表现，kasich 和 cruz 都大赢自己的州，rubio
却大输，跟rubio 在关键问题上违反 自己voter 的意愿绝对有关。 |
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a********w
发帖数: 100 | 22 Trump 的前景还是不错的。媒体里说的必须赢 50%+ vote 才能避免 contested
convention 的说法不对。 因为有好几个州是 "pure" or "hybrid" winner-take-all.
Trump 的支持面广并且分布一致，很容易在这些州用微弱优势拿到全部或大部分选票
。他在 Illinois 有 39% 的vote 能拿到 74% （51 out of 69)的delegates就是很好
的例子。
Reference: Slate 的文章:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/0 |
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n******g
发帖数: 17225 | 23 上次看地图有三个州是灰的，包括ND。
这回说明白了,原来北达科他本来就没有committed delegates，所以那个人会那么说。
5:50开始看. |
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p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 24 Nice.
不过要小心，看到报道说， Cruz 一直在做各种小动作，安排自己的人做 delegates.
就是准备 convention. |
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发帖数: 1 | 25 华盛顿一共不是有101个delegates么？ |
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f*******y
发帖数: 8358 | 26 没那么容易，delegate不是简单的安比例分配。 |
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A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 27 希拉里那些super delegates都是规则允许可以随时换边的，八年前已经大批叛变过一
次。希拉里那点优势还不到加州票数的一半，而且连战连败，一个月内在WI被逆转三十
多个百分点，桑德斯怎么就赢不了。
，因 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 28 http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/07/politics/donald-trump-new-york-de
Trump will need to win a majority of support in each district -- or keep his
opponents from reaching the 20% threshold -- to keep all the delegates to
himself.
That's why the campaign on Thursday announced 17 New York campaign co-chairs
-- including two congressmen -- spread throughout the state, who will help
coordinate the campaign's targeted congressional district efforts and serve
as local media surrogates. |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 30 这种闭门的床铺根本没有机会，他不选总统还可以做房地产，党棍们还是要接着吃政治
饭。
按Paul Manafort的讲法，虽然克鲁兹这淫虫假道学用了不少脏手段威胁delegates，但
这不会有大的影响，床铺有把握在第一轮投票达到1237，不过下面州的选举他还得拿下
不少州和1237差不太多才行。 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 31 So Trump needs to win some uncommitted delegates? |
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c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 32 从最近几个州的delegate 推选来看，GOP的各个党支部已经基本认可支持cruz了，选的
大部分是支持cruz的人，一方面cruz自己的team work。
另一方面主要是针对和大选一起的国会选举，因为cruz的voter 几乎可以肯定会选GOP
的议员，但trump的voter 倒有很多不一定。就是说，cruz出来代表GOP选总统，很多州
的议员会跟着借光，但跟着trump 未必。
所以在这点上，trump的确对地区议员可交换的利益很有限，因为选民的结构不一样，
trump的voter 对GE 有用，对地区议员未必，至少现在是这样，trump 要是能somehow
convince these local people，上trump train 一样可以借光，这些人自己就
屁颠屁颠的过来了。
当年cruz 能赢 texas senate 就是靠 hard core 保守派，加上low turn out，几乎跟
cruz现在GOP初选走的路如出一辙。除了texas，cruz 真正赢的 primary 就是 WI，还
不是pro－cruz vote，是靠anti－trump vote... 阅读全帖 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 33 I think Trump and Manafort are targeting the uncommitted PA delegates. |
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m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 34 最主要的还是要多赢剩下的州，克鲁兹所做的无非就是进入第2轮投票一下子把床铺的
票抢跑。而床铺最主要就是第一轮就要拿下1237，就算自己的delegate有克鲁兹的人，
但在第一轮他们还是要投床铺。 |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 35 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/13/rubio_i_hope_
SEN. MARCO RUBIO: I've been pretty clear that I want the Republican nominee
to be a conservative... I hope that [my delegates will] nominate a
conservative. And in my view at this moment, of the candidates that are
still actively campaigning, the only one that fits that criteria is Ted Cruz
. |
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a*****e
发帖数: 146 | 37 54个。不过大部分delegate candidates 要投congressional district 或者 state
winner. Trump 拿60%以上问题不大 |
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a*****e
发帖数: 146 | 38 还有NJ 51个WTA。基本可以算Trump的铁票了。所以虽然不容易，但希望还是不小的。
另外Maryland有还有20多free delegates。以Trump的poll怎么也的拿一半。东北部
Lying Ted 想乱搞可没人买账。 |
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t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 39 lying ted这两天都在PA， 搞unbound delegates. |
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M*****l
发帖数: 4478 | 40 剩下的Trump只要拿350左右就可以了。
这个数至少在bindable里过半。
明眼人，包括建制派，都知道2472张票实际放出的是2400左右，只要拿到1200就算过半
了。有七八十张票没有放，要求Trump在2472的总数过半，实在是不公平。这时候把他
强行搞下去，要出大乱子。
如果他拿到1200，那些unbind delegates一定会帮他凑满1237。建制派也有很多人暗示
过，“如果只差三四十张票，那么实际上不会有open convention”，大概也是这个意
思。 |
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c**********e
发帖数: 2007 | 41 Trump needs to grab 53.4% (392/734) of remaining delegates.
After NY, he has 845, just needs 392 more. If he gets 50%,i.e., 367, he only
has 25 shortage.
Looks promising now. |
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t***h
发帖数: 2924 | 42 很不错了，carl rove的估算就是trump can get as much as 90 delegates.
说明现在的结果已经差不多是最好的了。
他们都是选举专家，说出来的数字比较可靠。 |
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M**Q
发帖数: 477 | 45 滨州共有71张票,其中州winner 拿17张,是bound的
剩下54张,每个议会选区三张,共18个选区
每个选区选取三个代表去convention 投票, they are technically unbound and
beholden to nobody -- not the voters, candidates or Republican Party
CNN采访了162个 delegate候选人中的135个:
42%说他们会支持本选区得票最多的
25%支持TRUMP
20%支持CRUZ
11%说现在还没决定
0%支持KAISCH |
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M**Q
发帖数: 477 | 46 How these unbound delegates will vote could go a long way in deciding the
GOP president nominee! |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 47 Connecticut 28 delegates |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 48 Aaron Cohen, a delegate elected in the Pennsylvania's 2nd district, ran as
uncommitted and has yet to declare who he will support, but told ABC News
Tuesday night he will "probably…not support Trump."
While results were still coming at the time of Cohen's interview, he said he
'd "have to evaluate" what he'd do at the convention if Trump is the
resounding winner of both his district and the statewide vote. |
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m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 49 The mainstream media has accepted the reality - most of the unbounded PA
delegates will support Trump.
http://www.cnn.com/ |
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