m********a
发帖数: 1041 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-08/how-dumb-is-immigratio
Everything you know about immigration, particularly unauthorized immigration
, is wrong.
So says Princeton University’s Doug Massey, anyway. Massey is one of the
nation’s preeminent immigration scholars. And he thinks we’ve wasted a
whole lot of money on immigration policy and are about to waste a whole lot
more.
Massey slices the history of Mexico-to-U.S. migration in five periods. Early... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 2 by: Alex Nussbaum
February 12, 2014
(Bloomberg) — Health insurers told to pay $150 billion in taxes over a
decade to help fund Obamacare are now shifting at least part of that cost
back to taxpayers.
Congress passed the insurer tax four years ago to help cover the uninsured
under the Affordable Care Act. Now, the industry is pushing to include some
of the cost in contracts with Medicaid programs for the poor that are
jointly funded by state and federal governments.
The strategy may add $36 billi... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 3 October 2, 2014 - 1:04 PM
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Just how healthy is the U.S. job market?
Despite steady hiring and falling unemployment, the question has provoked
sharp debate and considerable uncertainty on the eve of the September jobs
report.
Will millions without jobs who aren't looking for one eventually start
looking?
Why aren't companies filling more of their openings?
Why can many people find only part-time work?
Much of the uncertainty flows from ... 阅读全帖 |
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l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 4 The suspect alleged to have shot three northern California sheriff's
deputies Friday, killing two, was deported twice and has a criminal record,
federal officials said late Saturday.
A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement spokeswoman said that the
fingerprints of the suspected shooter match those of a man named Luis
Enrique Monroy-Bracamonte. Monroy-Bracamonte was initially deported to
Mexico in 1997 after being convicted of drug possession in Arizona. Four
years later, he was arrested and d... 阅读全帖 |
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b*********h
发帖数: 1001 | 5 主要就是说人们在调查的时候普遍不敢说真话，必须要装B装政治正确，所以电话调查
很多人嘴上说不支持trump，但是等投票的时候反而投给了trump
文中举过以前类似的例子，这叫Bradley效应。
具体反映在，trump在网络上的支持率要高于电话调查的支持率，对3000 GOP投票者调
查显示网络上支持率能高出6%
In 1982, California voters were supposed to elect former Los Angeles Mayor
Tom Bradley as the state's next governor.
Bradley went into the election with a sizable lead over George Deukmejian.
Exit polls projected a Bradley win. But when the ballots were counted,
Deukmejian came out the winner.
Thus, the "Bradley effect" was born — named as ... 阅读全帖 |
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m*****s
发帖数: 4427 | 6 GOP officials lay the groundwork to blame their nominee if Clinton wins.
By Eli Stokols and Kenneth P. Vogel
08/14/16 07:29 AM EDT
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-rnc-support-226987
Publicly, Republican Party officials continue to stand by Donald Trump.
Privately, at the highest levels, party leaders have started talking about
cutting off support to Trump in October and redirecting cash to saving
endangered congressional majorities.
Since the Cleveland convention, top party of... 阅读全帖 |
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l*h
发帖数: 4124 | 7 http://fortune.com/2016/09/23/trump-immigration-study/
Here's Why Donald Trump Is More Right About Immigration Than You Think
by Chris Matthews @crobmatthews SEPTEMBER 23, 2016, 3:17 PM EDT
E-mail Tweet Facebook Linkedin
Share icons
The argument for being anti-refugee just got a new backer.
There might actually be an economic reason to join the anti-refugee crowd.
If there’s one thing that has united Americans and Europeans in the past
six months, it’s their attitudes toward refugees. In N... 阅读全帖 |
|
发帖数: 1 | 8 Confounded. I knew Bill Clinton was on Lolita Express. It's shocking to know
that Hillary was on it too. |
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t*c
发帖数: 6929 | 9 以民主党参议院领袖Chuck Shumer为首的民主党议员发表
声明谴责奥巴马政府对以色列的背信弃义。这是罕见的民主党议员响应川普的例子，全
文如下：
“It is extremely frustrating, disappointing and confounding that the
Administration has failed to veto this resolution,” Schumer said. “[P]ast
Administrations – both Democrat and Republican- have protected Israel from
the vagaries of this biased institution. Unfortunately, this Administration
has not followed in that path and its actions will move us further from
peace in the Middle East.” |
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D**s
发帖数: 6361 | 10 他不是穆穆，谁信啊？
[在 tnc (long shot) 的大作中提到：]
:以民主党参议院领袖Chuck Shumer为首的民主党议员发表
:声明谴责奥巴马政府对以色列的背信弃义。这是罕见的民主党议员响应川普的例子，
全文如下：
:“It is extremely frustrating, disappointing and confounding that the
:Administration has failed to veto this resolution,” Schumer said. “[P]ast
Administrations – both Democrat and Republican- have protected Israel from
the vagaries of this biased institution. Unfortunately, this Administration
has not followed in that path and its actions will move us further from
:peace in the ... 阅读全帖 |
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w********e
发帖数: 277 | 11 http://reut.rs/2pAdDaA
The U.S. government had a $182 billion budget surplus in April, confounding
market expectations for a deficit, according to Treasury Department data
released on Wednesday. |
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i**t
发帖数: 921 | 12 赶快impeach, 这让马桶多难堪！
confounding |
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N*******M
发帖数: 3963 | 13 四月，大家都要交税的。
confounding |
|
发帖数: 1 | 14 Education plays a major role as a part of Jewish identity; as Jewish culture
puts a special premium on it and stresses the importance of cultivation of
intellectual pursuits, scholarship and learning, American Jews as a group
tend to be better educated and earn more than Americans as a whole.[96][97][
98][99][100] Forty-four percent (55% of Reform Jews) report family incomes
of over $100,000 compared to 19% of all Americans, with the next highest
group being Hindus at 43%.[101][102] And while 27... 阅读全帖 |
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c*******o
发帖数: 8869 | 15 讨论这些问题统计意义的意义不大。因为是observational study, confounding
factor太多了，很难得出任何结论。 |
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l*i
发帖数: 50 | 16 A State House effort to categorize Asian-Americans into specific ethnic
groups is clashing with a vocal and well-organized opposition that has
likened the effort to racial profiling.
A bill by state Representative Tackey Chan urges “all state agencies, quasi
-state agencies, entities created by state statute, and sub-divisions of
state agencies” to identify Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders, as
defined in the US census, in all data they collect and report.
But critics say Chan’s efforts woul... 阅读全帖 |
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m****s
发帖数: 8992 | 17 " I am confounded by the necessity of removing productive, caring
individuals who are raising United States citizens instead of focusing on
dangerous criminals who have entered our country illegally with the intent
to cause harm. Kris and Tony, we stand with you" |
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s*******t
发帖数: 2896 | 18 我不是说了吗，这张图只看x的是sb，因为neon tarus odyssey的y顺序说明number of
accidents是
confounder. And number of accidents are determined by drivers not vehicles.
To do our best in this chart, we can read y/x to compensate number of
accidents. You will
see different types of vehicles have their y/x in proper categories。
注意sable和tarus的差别，同种车型不同人开，就会有不同的y/x。
做个drivers killed per accident图是正经。
有人非说这个point太狂妄，我无话可说。 |
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w*****x
发帖数: 27 | 19 这个是total number, 如果需要证明 corolla 出的问题比 Focus 显著得多,我觉得应
该比较他们的rate, 比如说每1000台正在运行的车中,有多少台出了问题,并且还应该
adjust for 别的因素,比方说 location, 开车人的年龄,性别.有显著性的confounding
variable 都考虑进去后,如果两车仍然有显著的problem rate, 那么 corolla是真有
问题. |
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D***0
发帖数: 5214 | 20 豪车安全这个命题，还有个confounding factor是：有钱人惜命。穷逼买三手车疯开，
出事情的也多。 |
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A***n
发帖数: 8859 | 21 知道B-24重型轰炸机比你那个本田小机机大多少吗？一小时出一架。
天天夜郎自大自撸伤身
http://www.historynet.com/henry-ford-helped-lead-american-world
To the west of Dearborn, the giant Willow Run plant was built to produce B-
24 Liberator bombers on an assembly line that was a mile long. The first
bomber rolled off the line in May 1942, beginning the effective production
of several hundred aircraft a month. Bombers were produced at the rate of
one plane per hour, thereby confounding Ford’s critics, who had called the
plant undertaking ‘... 阅读全帖 |
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f****o
发帖数: 4067 | 22 • Lowest-rated subcompact: Mitsubishi Mirage. Cheap to buy and good
gas mileage, but it's "tiny, tinny" and the three-cylinder engine vibrates.
• Lowest-rated compact: Fiat 500L. Worst reliability of any new car
and a "dismal" road-test score.
• Lowest-rated midsize sedan: Chrysler 200. "Mediocre," with clumsy
handling and poor on the road.
• Lowest-rated compact luxury car: Mercedes-Benz CLA250. Stiff ride,
noisy, cramped.
• Lowest-rated midsize luxury car: Lincoln... 阅读全帖 |
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T*********s
发帖数: 20444 | 23 婊子媒体老色狼
• Lowest-rated subcompact: Mitsubishi Mirage. Cheap to buy and good
gas mileage, but it's "tiny, tinny" and the three-cylinder engine vibrates.
• Lowest-rated compact: Fiat 500L. Worst reliability of any new car
and a "dismal" road-test score.
• Lowest-rated midsize sedan: Chrysler 200. "Mediocre," with clumsy
handling and poor on the road.
• Lowest-rated compact luxury car: Mercedes-Benz CLA250. Stiff ride,
noisy, cramped.
• Lowest-rated midsize luxury car... 阅读全帖 |
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v*******n
发帖数: 8995 | 24 首先排放超标的，
也就是电脑作弊的是Nox，这个东西号称link to lung cancer
但所谓的研究就是看看住在路边的人得lung cancer的比列是不是更高，样本量一版
10000左右，
这不废话么。
马路上的废气剁了去了，烟大灰大，还吵，你能赖光赖NoX
最近的一个比较负责的研究，统计乐大约30万人得出的结论是
With full adjustment for all measured confounders, the pooled results from
the cohorts showed that each increase in concentration of PM10 (each 10
micrometers/m3 increase) led to a corresponding increase in lung cancer risk
(hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03 to 1.45).
注意啊。。。。
However, for the other types of pollutan... 阅读全帖 |
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g*k
发帖数: 1797 | 25 In a project you usually should focus on only 1-3 independent variables, and
other variables that you want to control for should be called "covariates",
or called "confounders".
Do you know any biostatistician or eplidemiologiest, or health services
researcher? An experienced health services researcher should be the best
person as a co-investigator in your project. |
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V****n
发帖数: 651 | 26 由于男性Y染色体的基因传子不传女，女儿跟母姓没损失，儿子跟母姓则携带的并不
是外公那一方的Y染色体基因，生物学上讲只不过是自欺欺人。
The simple expectation of a correlation between Y
chromosome type and surname is complicated by several
confounding factors. Some surnames are likely to have
been founded independently more than once (Figure 1);
this will result in more than one Y type being associated
with a given surname. Non-paternity events, the adoption
of male children and deliberate surname change will have
the same consequence (Figure 1).
这段话的最后一句讲的就是这种行为 |
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t*******t
发帖数: 633 | 27 这个在统计里属于confounding variables的问题：） |
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l**h
发帖数: 7994 | 28 追捕进行时，现在LA附近草木皆兵。
愚蠢可耻的LAPD.
From: Christopher Jordan Dorner /7648
To: America
Subj: Last resort
Regarding CF# 07-004281
I know most of you who personally know me are in disbelief to hear from
media reports that I am suspected of committing such horrendous murders and
have taken drastic and shocking actions in the last couple of days. You are
saying to yourself that this is completely out of character of the man you
knew who always wore a smile wherever he was seen. I know I will be vilified
by ... 阅读全帖 |
|
|
l**x
发帖数: 296 | 30 如果你有两个年龄相似的女儿，同时有同样的症状，你给了一个女儿桂枝汤，一个女儿
没给桂枝汤，然后发现给了桂枝汤的很快就好了，没给的就很慢才好，然后你在报告这
样的发现，我觉得可能还有点意义。
接下来大家又会问你的sample size这么小，是不是放之四海而皆准呢？
你可能需要做几百个人临床试验来证明。
接下来有人问你会不会还有什么confounding factors in your study system |
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c*****b
发帖数: 164 | 31
feel sorry for this lovely girl.
But it is very hard to prove there is a link between the seasonal flu shot
and the rare disorder. It is impossible address all potential confounders
and control them even though millions of people have got the flu shots. |
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a**a
发帖数: 416 | 32 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20497980
Reducing consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages is associated with reduced
blood pressure: a prospective study among United States adults.
Chen L1, Caballero B, Mitchell DC, Loria C, Lin PH, Champagne CM, Elmer PJ,
Ard JD, Batch BC, Anderson CA, Appel LJ.
Author information
Erratum in
Circulation. 2010 Jul 27;122(4):e408.
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Increased consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been
associated with an elevated risk of obesi... 阅读全帖 |
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w*****y
发帖数: 1201 | 33 连续两年生老大和老二的话，好像老二是Autism的概率比较高。
这个只是个统计结果了，还没有很solid的scientific证据。
据最近几年来epigenetics的研究，有可能有些相关。
http://www.healthrelatedinfos.com/autism-risk-higher-in-close-s
Autism Risk Higher In Close Second-born Child Birth
A recent study suggests that there could be a higher risk of autism for
second children born soon (less than two years) after the first one.
Women who have children close together are at risk for an increased
likelihood of autism, at least that is what the research is showing.
The findi... 阅读全帖 |
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c*********r
发帖数: 1312 | 34 既然你提到CDC了，那我们就把学术进行到底吧。
先看第一个，cervical cancer，就是宫颈癌以及HPV和割包皮的关系。
CDC的结论来自12年前2002年的这篇文章：
Castellsague X, Bosch FX, Munoz N, Meijer CJ, Shah KV, de Sanjose S, et al.
Male circumcision, penile human papillomavirus infection, and cervical
cancer in female partners. N Engl J Med. 2002 Apr 11;346(15):1105-12.
这篇文章的结论是：Male circumcision is associated with a reduced risk of
penile HPV infection and, in the case of men with a history of multiple
sexual partners, a reduced risk of cervical cancer in thei... 阅读全帖 |
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b**s
发帖数: 908 | 35 NIH用的那个study就是先recruit一帮有各式各样病的,然后让这帮人report配偶是否割
了包皮.拿这帮人和健康人群的数据进行比对,得出的结论就是有病的女人,她的配偶更
多没有割包皮.很可惜,NIH没有调查调查这帮爱得病的女人是否share一些特征. 她们爱
得病这个事实的背后有没有什么confounding factors... |
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l*******e
发帖数: 2431 | 36 2岁3个月
哭了几个月
语言关不晓得，没听老师提
变化不好说， 因为confound with age |
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s*t
发帖数: 587 | 37 之所以做这个小调查，就是想知道是不是3岁左右才送孩子去daycare就真那么糟糕，耽误了孩子。我不喜欢那些用自己的个例来做结论的帖子，所以想看看这里的家长在孩子多大的时候送进了daycare,反应如何，适应力如何。如果大家不介意，可以简单介绍两句孩子的性格。知道confounder很多，不过不是严格意义上的统计分析，就是简单看看。 |
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P***s
发帖数: 11672 | 38 3岁送去就挺好，吃喝拉撒能自理，算术还比同龄的娃们强。只要不是个傻子，大家最
后都能学会follow instruction。
耽误了孩子。我不喜欢那些用自己的个例来做结论的帖子，所以想看看这里的家长在孩
子多大的时候送进了daycare,反应如何，适应力如何。如果大家不介意，可以简单介绍
两句孩子的性格。知道confounder很多，不过不是严格意义上的统计分析，就是简单看
看。 |
|
q***q
发帖数: 2383 | 39 我们3岁送的，觉得挺好的，我家娃性格是那种有点没心没肺的。唯一不足就是上了3个
礼拜，有两个周末娃都是有点鼻塞加咳嗽。和我们同时进幼儿园的还有有一个russian
boy （其他孩子是升班上来的），也是3岁多，老师说适应的慢一点。但是问题的关键
是他们班上中国孩子多，老外少。这下大家看出差别在哪里了吧。
耽误了孩子。我不喜欢那些用自己的个例来做结论的帖子，所以想看看这里的家长在孩
子多大的时候送进了daycare,反应如何，适应力如何。如果大家不介意，可以简单介绍
两句孩子的性格。知道confounder很多，不过不是严格意义上的统计分析，就是简单看
看。 |
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p******i
发帖数: 1322 | 40 http://blogs.greatschools.org/greatschoolsblog/2010/10/bullying-that-ends-in-suicide.html
October 14, 2010
Jon Carmichael, age 13
Hope Witsell, age 13
Justin Aaberg, age 15
Asher Brown, age 13
Seth Walsh, age 13
Phoebe Prince, age 15
Billy Lucas, age 15
All of these children — from places like Houston; Tehachapi, Calif.; and
Rushkin, Fla. — killed themselves this year. Each was a victim of bullying,
or what is now called “bullicide.” Many of these teens were also victims
of anti-gay hate crimes.... 阅读全帖 |
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w*********s
发帖数: 2136 | 41
Unvaccinated children healthier: Quotes
[The real reason behind the drive for high vaccination levels is to make
sure there are no groups of healthy unvaccinated kids around to show up
vaccination. Dan Olmsted exposed that with the Amish, also Mayer Eisenstein
of Homefirst Medical Services.]
"The reason vaccinations are promoted with such intensity is to prevent
people from realising that vaccines do not protect and also in the event of
an outbreak or an epidemic the vaccinated are as much at... 阅读全帖 |
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l*******e
发帖数: 2431 | 42 爬藤的亦有很多平民百姓，
何况在美国，倚靠家庭关系挣高工资并不普遍，
当然，任何一项统计结果，都会有很多confounding因素，
比如，你可以argue说藤校门槛高，学生的知识和能力本来就会超出普通学校的学生。
但是我相信这个结论有一定的可信度
好学校的确可以提供一个良好的教育环境，
学校的人文氛围，学习风气，同辈和老师的治学为人视野，等等许多，
都会对一个正在成长的孩子造成深远的影响 |
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e******8
发帖数: 1563 | 43 呵呵，我是哪个学校的，我真的懒的说，好也罢差也罢，我都不希望自己的学校陷入这
种无聊的校级坑。
另外你说的啥顶级投行和咨询公司只从四所大学招应届生，这是狗屁，我周围的朋友去
顶级投行和咨询公司的多了去了。不知道你从哪里得出“只从...”这种结论。另外你
不要忘了地域优势，北京的公司倾向于招北京毕业的学生，上海的公司倾向于招上海毕
业的学生，而顶级投行和咨询公司大部分总部都在北京和上海，这种confounding
effect要控制住，大家都是读书人，看问题咋逻辑这么不缜密？
另外我还知道一点，大家都是出了国的人，出了国就像人生重新洗牌一样。管你本科是
哪个学校的，最后混的好不好跟这没啥本质的关系。事实上如果你自诩牛校毕业，回个
国一年的年薪才拿十万二十万，还是不要再吹嘘自己的本科学校比较好。人要学会往前
看，别总往后看，成天抱着自己的那几年“优秀”历史不放的人，很难发展得有多好。
看看世界上那些个有悠久历史的国家，有几个成为发达国家了 |
|
b*****9
发帖数: 8922 | 44 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
zhengshi (zhengshi) 于 (Thu Mar 10 12:13:58 2011, 美东) 提到:
国内共产党一党专政，贪污腐败无不用其极，法律黑暗治安混乱，经济面临瓶颈，如果
你不是统治阶级，当跟别人有利益纠纷的时候，甚至无法保证自己的人身安全，更别提
什么合法的经济权益和知识产权了。就是那些统治阶级，也是贪一天是一天，操一年是
一年，在没有一个成熟规范理性的政治环境下，当你屁股沟里夹着一泡屎时，不知道哪
天就被政治对手搞到监狱里，都是刀口舔血的买卖啊！
美国市场发达，法律健全。只要你脑瓜不笨，在美国过上个中产，轻而易举，稍微努力
一下，搞点发明创造，一不小心就能巨富。你个理工男，回去与狼共舞，跟狗争食，鱼
肉百姓，吃毒吸废，没等小富肾先衰，没等大富身先死（死法很多：交通，癌症，仇杀
，花柳病...），就是没死，也少活几十年, 很有意思吗？
很多SB看上了国内娱乐场所，难道蹂躏下岗女工就那么爽？更别提小心烂JJ得爱滋了。
如果你真热爱妇女，美国什么女人没有？除了未成年，各种人种的女... 阅读全帖 |
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w*****g
发帖数: 3922 | 45 好的。那么，通过湾区创业群，或者你的同事或同学，你有没有找到好的confounder？
你和他们合作得如何？
这是双向的，我喜欢的，不一定是喜欢我的，也不一定是适合我的。我面对面相对正式
的谈过50个人以上，有独当一面能力或潜力而且彼此欣赏又在客观上有合作可能的微乎
其微。 |
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w*****g
发帖数: 3922 | 46 好的。那么，通过湾区创业群，或者你的同事或同学，你有没有找到好的confounder？
你和他们合作得如何？
这是双向的，我喜欢的，不一定是喜欢我的，也不一定是适合我的。我面对面相对正式
的谈过50个人以上，有独当一面能力或潜力而且彼此欣赏又在客观上有合作可能的微乎
其微。 |
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A********d
发帖数: 52 | 47 Top gainers as of 20Sep2010
TNA 24% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 14% (first buy 30Aug2010)
NFLX 9% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CMG 9% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CRM 8% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
ACOM 7% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
DGP 5% (first buy 25Aug2010)
IGTE 5% (first buy 20Sep2010)
GMCR 4% (first buy market open 09Sep2010)
BIDU 4% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
market continues to confound the bears Laughing
cut loss
BORN -14% (no biggie, small posit |
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A********d
发帖数: 52 | 48 Top gainers as of 20Sep2010
TNA 24% (first buy close of 01Sep2010)
ARUN 14% (first buy 30Aug2010)
NFLX 9% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CMG 9% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
CRM 8% (first buy intra-day of 01Sep2010)
ACOM 7% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
DGP 5% (first buy 25Aug2010)
IGTE 5% (first buy 20Sep2010)
GMCR 4% (first buy market open 09Sep2010)
BIDU 4% (first buy market open 20Sep2010)
market continues to confound the bears Laughing
cut loss
BORN -14% (no biggie, small posit |
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k**********4
发帖数: 16092 | 49 impression is not accurate and subject to bias and other
confounders. |
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h*****7
发帖数: 6781 | 50 That is true.
But sample size is too small to predict the phycological disorder of other
female-ID, semi-female ID, bi-sexual ID, or feminine-looking bi-sexual ID in
the stock board, at present or in the future, not to mention the
confounding factors we cannot overlook - there are female-ID, semi-female ID
, bi-sexual ID, or feminine-looking bi-sexual ID on this board who do not
post, and there are female users using a male ID. |
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