r*******y 发帖数: 290 | 1 Silver is a complete different animal than gold
silver is a consumption comodity, mainly used by industry
gold is an investment comodity, price affected by central bank
monetary policy a lot. Some ppl predicts gold will not return
anything this year. but over long term, gold should keep up with inflation |
|
f*******e 发帖数: 4531 | 2 that's right. once smart phone becomes comodity, apple will lose its edge.
Just like iMac, which never becomes mainstream.
for comodity, reasonable pricing + ok performance is the king. |
|
A*****s 发帖数: 13748 | 3 我怎么觉得这个和上一轮一样
大家先抛优质资产,然后烘托comodity
现在comodity彻底把劣质资产补回来了,就全抛了
这两天大跌就是这个原因吧 |
|
B*********L 发帖数: 700 | 4 产能过剩,大不了废掉,今后谁也别修。给印度搞基建,肯定会抬高commodity价格。
不是基建本身的消耗,而是基建搞好以后带来的刚需。最后全球comodity价格大涨,最
吃大亏的就是中国。习近平,哀,不是那块料呀。 |
|
q******j 发帖数: 577 | 5 How to keep the food price down while keeping the farmers alive is the
priority of all big agricutural countries (including those developed
countries with big farm industrty). Not one single country allows any
farmer or farmer group to become monopoly. No farmer or farmer group in any
country has the ability to set the price (compared with iron ore and other
mineral comodities where a few international giant have great leverage in
negotiating the price). Agricultural machinery and fertilizers |
|
l*******g 发帖数: 28502 | 6 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
GilaMonster (春夏秋冬) 于 (Tue Sep 28 01:11:28 2010, 美东) 提到:
这个版人少,随便发一点关于农业的随想吧,想到那里写到那里,欢迎大家讨论。不严
谨的地方,请多指出。
美国有得天独厚的农业条件,这个国家能够以2-3%的农业人口生产出足够本国消费而又
能大量出口的粮食。这点估计世界上能有与其相比的大国不多。不过,除了这个条件之
外,美国还是对其农业有相当大的投入,这点值得其它国家,尤其是中国好好学习的。
1) 联邦政府的直接给钱
常常听到美国指责其它国家补贴农业,搞不正当的竞争,其实他自身对农业的补贴只多
不少。这个国家虽然农业人口很少,但其影响力还是不小(这点以后谈到农民的组织上
还有讨论)。政府对农业重要性的认识也很关键,所以才能通过farm bill。在民间显然
没有中国那么多叫嚣什么不需要耕地和农业或者盖楼种地的NC。
美国一些农业的补贴是直接给钱。这个相对于不同的作物而言,一般而言主要是大田作
物小麦棉花玉米之类的。每过几年的farm bill很... 阅读全帖 |
|
b*****e 发帖数: 1125 | 7 I favour utility cuz I thought it was over sold in this financial crsis and
hasn't recovered as strong as other sectors. As a defensive sector, it
should not be sold so deeply. With the energy price and comodity price
picking up, comsumer confidnece recover, utility cos have better opportunity
to get a high profit margin.
Above are just my 2 cents. |
|
k***n 发帖数: 3158 | 8 I said long bond was going to crash in June and thought about shorting
it by TBT. I did not do it because I was not comfortable with what
FED can do to interfer with it. Realatively speaking, long commodity is
easier with less FED interference. Indeed the long bond extended its
last run for another two months and most comodities took off since June.
Still feel happy for those who bought TBT at the right time. The past
peak of the long bond will not be seen in decades IMO. |
|
r*****g 发帖数: 9999 | 9 房子不是comodity,如何估算精确价值,每个房子跟每个房子都不一样,同样的房子对
不同的人来说价值差老鼻子了。
Zillow |
|
r***l 发帖数: 9084 | 10 best post this year.
顺便问期货专家个问题,美国这里哪里开户做期货比较好?我看了眼ib,貌似期货交易
要求金额特别硕大,一个交易单位就要交易个10万8万刀,是这样吧?
另外stock里面那些comodity etf很多成交量很小,不太容易交易,比如香蕉,有etf吗
?
算哪
相连 |
|
|
s********i 发帖数: 17328 | 12 你要是能看清宏观经济,根本不需要一天到晚盯着个股,买index就足够了,不要说你
666点买SP500,算1000点时候买,现在也使100%的return。或者,泡沫破裂的时候
short原材料 comodity什么的,都是翻番的收益。 |
|
s********i 发帖数: 17328 | 13 你要是能看清宏观经济,根本不需要一天到晚盯着个股,买index就足够了,不要说你
666点买SP500,算1000点时候买,现在也使100%的return。或者,泡沫破裂的时候
short原材料 comodity什么的,都是翻番的收益。 |
|
d********1 发帖数: 2462 | 14 shorts在各个层面都有啊,不仅仅是美金或者各种外汇,股市equity market, bond
market,
commodities, ETFs,只要能leverage的商品,能够有借有还的,都可以算上几分利,
先卖后买罢:)。。
好吧,我不知道该怎么回答你的问题,感觉题目有点大了,超过我打酱油灌水的动脑积
极性了;)。。
简单讲,加息对不得不借钱过日子靠capital investment扩张的tech and biotech
startups,
和发dividends取悦shareholders睁一只眼闭一只眼的油气重工industries公司来说,
绝对不是一件愉悦的事情。
欧元是杠杆的另一头,撬动的是美元,美元带动了油气黄金comodities价格的走低,
走低的油气黄金commodities的价格并没有带动消费,带动GDP的话,那么,只能是走
deflation了;)。。
”欧元QE“和”美元加息“是两个在独木桥上,时机不巧,迎面碰上谁都要先过河的人
。但是,
只要有人在岸边大喊一声:”着火啦,你家着火啦!!“,估摸着,接下来事情就很微
妙了,呵呵;)。。
来来来,前排... 阅读全帖 |
|
d*****e 发帖数: 7368 | 15 这个还要好几天才能看出来。很多基金肯定要重新分配资金,各种COMODITY近两天的波
动会比较大。 |
|
H********s 发帖数: 1024 | 16 Process做到头了对ASIC反而是件好事。ASICs本来就是为了解决通用芯片缺点而存在的
。Process做到头了,Fab变成comodity后,silicon的制造成本会降下来,ASIC的优势就
能更加体现出来 |
|
p*****o 发帖数: 1010 | 17 工程利益再再重大,政府也无权强拆别人的房子。在西方,在日本,你没见过钉子户的
房子及进出途径被完好保留在飞机跑道尽头或者附近的吗?高速线上,每户人家的征地
都得一个一个谈过。住户还经常组成联盟一起谈。觉得给钱多受不了,请你改道!更不
会发生99户人家利益满足于是投票决定强拆一户人家的问题。有的人家,你哪怕给人家
天价,人家也不搬,在民主国家也不会称呼这些人刁民。因为人家有安居乐业不被干扰
的权利。
美国管道的征地了解一些。管道里面传送的是什么,跟管道征地的法律程序很有关系。
如果传输的是comodity,如果某钉子户拒绝协商,开发商如果已经申请到PERMIT,可以
在经过长期协商期限以后到当地法院诉讼。法院根据情况可以ORDER住户跟开发商继续
协商,但是不管协商结果如何,如果不成,开发商管线距离住户必须按照交通部的规范
和法规,否则依法论处。如果管道传输的是WASTE或者跟民生无关的生产流体,那么对不
起,住户不搬,开发商连争取法院ORDER协商的权利都没有。必须改道。
中国严重缺乏这些法规和民权思想。美国依照自己的法规办事,保护了企业,政府,和
国民的利益。并没有限制管道系统的发达... 阅读全帖 |
|
a***r 发帖数: 594 | 18 a couple reasons it is a favorable environment for a broker dealer right now.
1. diversification. One needs to remember that we are looking at many
different businesses: FX, IR, Credit, Comod, Equity shares, Equity vol,
exotics. Each of these include different geo regions: NA, EU, Japan, Asia,
SA. any given time, some are up, some are down.
This is a natural advantage of the dealers. Ofcouse, the top level must be very smart in terms of risk allocation across the markets, regions etc.
2. Current |
|
a***r 发帖数: 594 | 19 gossip I heard, Derman was first doing deriv pricing stuff in fix income and
equities.
however, J Aron comod traders climbed to the top over the last couple
decades. The strategiest group came out of J Aron squeezed the original fix
income and equity quants off the front desk.
Derman sort of lost the political fight and moved to firm wide risk which
was a back office post. He finally left.
Risk |
|
g***t 发帖数: 1279 | 20 来自主题: _Stockcafeteria版 - 今天反弹 可以买入comodities的票票。大盘日内双底了好像。 |
|