w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 1 今天的走势再次表明FXI/CAF炒的是预期，不是过去
昨天A股涨1.9%，但CAF今天跌1.2%，^HSI只跌0.38%，但FXP涨4.8%
Why? 市场都在预期明天A股/港股因为银行准备金调整而大跌 |
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w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 2 CAF/FXI continues dropping like there is no tomorrow.
By now: CAF -2.8%, FXI -3.7% |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 5 FXI不是个公司，就如同DOW Jones指数DJIA不是一个公司。
FXI跟踪在港股里最大的25个中概。
CAF主要跟踪上证指数，现在CAF的价是上证2100以下的价。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 6 又仔细看了下。过去3个月FXI涨13%，而CAF跌14%。CAF得涨30%以上才能同步。
主要指数被操纵到如此地步，真是难以想象。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 7 没有合理的比值。但我知道CAF市价比它的NAV低很多。所以我买CAF，卖FXI靠。
市场下了一步无理棋，露出破绽。我蔑视它，并击败它。 |
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Z****9
发帖数: 639 | 8 if short FXI --- FXP
if short CAF --- ???
thank you |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 9 上证在涨，为什么还压价CAF？近三周FXI跑赢CAF至少8%。
如果你还压价，我斗死你！ |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 10 昨晚A股涨了，今天CAF跌了2%。今晚如果A股跌了，谁知道呢？也许CAF明天涨2%。
庄家要玩，我跟他奉陪到底，再跌就加倍再加倍的买。我进来了，就不会轻易离场。 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 11 CAF又跌了吧？ 呵呵。
看着A股炒CAF？天下有这么简单的好事？
反过来还差不多。 |
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l******c
发帖数: 2555 | 12 CAF down tomorrow, you bet
80% of my stock position is CAF |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 13 你要保险起见，可以同时long CAF和Short FXI。
市场在FXI/CAF又下了一不无理棋，要很很地惩罚它。 |
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c**y
发帖数: 419 | 14 何苦跟CAF过不去呢,它是个close end fund, 是discount priced的, 不象mutual fund
是跟每股净资产等值的.
所以即使中国股市涨到6000点,
CAF也不一定涨那么多. |
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q********u
发帖数: 15519 | 15 任何一个股票或者ETF都需要考虑交易量？
如果交易量实在是太小？
股价大起大落的可能性很高？
风险也就非常大？
比如同是反映中概蓝筹股的CAF和FXI?
CAF的日交易量微不足道？
FXI的每天交易量起码一千万股？
还是FXI比较容易进出？
自己的一点胡话？
是不？ |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 16 我周五减了仓。A股在2500遇到阻力，但CAF可能不会掉太多。
我捞的最低的CAF在年底，18.65，比历史新低高一分。上周在21.3x-21.4x我都是几千
股的买，斗死那个压价的。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 17 昨天卖了些winner CAF，买了些Loser FXI。
今天准备卖些Winner FXI，买回Loser CAF。
我就要跟追涨杀跌的反着做！ |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 18 前段时间我说CAF去年是大loser，所以我大买。现在我减持CAF，增持FXI。
所谓“强者恒强弱者恒弱”是个谬论，被用来骗追涨杀跌的傻瓜。 |
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b*****o
发帖数: 240 | 19 My firsttrade account shows only L/T capital gains for CAF, but only 0.38/
share, I think that should be S/T capital gain. The 1.65/share capital gain
does not show up yet. I called both Firsttrade and MorganStanley, the two
stupid guys told me that I held CAF less than one year, and I am only
eligible for short-term capital gain. That is so stupid.... |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 20 今年跑赢FXI近10%。当然要买FXI这个Loser。
过些天CAF，就相对又变Loser了，我再转攻CAF。 |
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x*****u
发帖数: 186 | 21 可能因为去年CAF比FXI掉得狠多了吧。
就现在而言，CAF的discount比FXI还是大很多。
当然大牛说的也有道理 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 267 | 22 上证里鱼龙混杂，垃圾横飞。指数越来越低。
代表中国蓝筹的FXI和CAF却表现良好。FXI已经远离52周最低，CAF今年也涨了10%多。 |
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y******i
发帖数: 2584 | 23 这种定价不确定的金融产品，不适宜交易。而且不可能一直不跌，中间差价过大，投机
资金可以大量做空CAF，同时买入FXI的call，照样会把CAF的价格打下来。 |
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l******c
发帖数: 2555 | 24 do you understand what's the meaning of closed fund?
CAF has a history 40 % higher than NAV or 20 % lower than NAV
CAF is not index fund
week |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 25 CAF is actively managed. Based on my experience with CAF in the past 5
years, it's worth the 2% management fee. |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 26 CAF的转折点最明显不过了：
当discount变为premium，就是大家看好A股，开始哄抬物价了。
我买的时候10%discount，我卖的时候5%+的premium，期间A股涨了大约10%，但CAF涨了
25%。 |
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c*********o
发帖数: 8367 | 28 HOW DO YOU KNOW 大家都买CAF了? lol
there are only two IDs here saying buy CAF,...LMAO. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 29 agreed.
CAF is a closed fund and a leading indicator for A share. If any one is not
comfortable, sell your CAF and go buy A Share etf directly.
Yes, it is doable from here. |
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g********7
发帖数: 1145 | 30 溢价就自然消失了 是指什么意思呀？
是指CAF的要跌还是指的CAF的NAV要增加？ |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 31 上一波CAF从跌破20开始买入，一路AD到18.88，涨过24开始卖出，一路卖到26.88.
现在CAF终于又回到24以下了。目前这个价位，长期而言不贵，甚至可以说便宜，但短
期讲往下还有空间。等着看看，守株待兔是不错的策略。
21.88开始买入，19.88坚定买入，18.88无脑买入，16.88上margin买入！ |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 32 CAF真正的大底是2011/12/29的$18.64，那是在2012年3月分红$2.05前的价，所以那股
价相
当于后来的$16.6。
2012年11月，CAF刚到20块以下。 |
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E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 33 两个都号称是China index，走的曲线样子也基本一样。但是CAF现在在历史最低点附近
徘徊，而FXI比历史最低点高很多。难道是CAF收了很多不该收的手续费？因为我看见
Morgan Stanley的大名，总觉得是不是里面有点什么猫腻。有没有人研究过？ |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 34 CAF is A-share in Shanghai, and FXI is mega-cap Chinese in HK.
CAF gave more Dividends in the past years. |
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O****L
发帖数: 3353 | 35 CAF有没有discount主要取决于rim帮主的仓位，
如果rim帮主现在买了100股caf，我就直接上半仓。 |
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r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 36 CAF will be lower before getting higher, lol
With that said, it's politically correct to buy CAF at any price below 30.
Buy and hold. China will be the next superpower in 20 years. |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 37 Yes，I guessed XCAFX based upon A share index performance on the previous
night. Usually CAF tracks well with index with less than 0.5% deviation on
any given day. So the method in general is valid.
The discount definitely is shrinking in the past week or two, regardless
what happened to CAF at the closing today. If we close at the high of the
day, A share definitely is at the turning point.
rather
strong
but |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 38 thanks for following up. so as of yesterday, the intrinsic value of CAf is
23.01, and the closing price of CAF was 22.77， which means it was still
offered at a discount, albeit not as steep as before. right?
A share had a moderate rise （compare to the drop the day before，both in
terms of volume and range）it really don't bolt well in the whole picture. |
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B**********r
发帖数: 267 | 39 收盘的时候卖了不到一半。还剩两千多股。
FXI和CAF做了两年，就慢慢知道他们的特点了，就是说不出的凭感觉。记得2011年底还在
CAF的历史大底高1分捞过。 |
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i**t
发帖数: 921 | 40 Several ID, including able101, who i think is a good trader, advocate to go
long on CAF last week. I had advise caution several times. I think the
reason behind is that many of them interpretate the 4/15 week long bottom
tail as a selling climax - a reversal signal. I beg the difference.
from the first glance, it has many reversal signs: spiking volume, touching
key support line etc. but remember it just came off recent sharp sell off,
Price just moved into lower BB area, haven't touch the low... 阅读全帖 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 41 CAF does not really have fundamental as we all know the ugly side of chinese
stock market. Thus we all follow the technical analysis. Your analysis is
reasonable but I do not agree 100%.
Several of us were trying to use the pricing difference between underlying
asset value vs trading value to predict the trend, which does not exist in
most of the stocks. CAF as a leading indicator for A share might not be 100%
correct but has solid reasons behind it and was validated many times
include the most ... 阅读全帖 |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 42 意义就是赢了赌局，原帖的时候我说CAF到先25.22算我输，先到21.22算我赢， 当然人
家没赌， 可是CAF涨了几天不妨碍他一直在叫我错了。 挺烦的， 错了我会认， 赢了
那当然也会注明一下。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 43 你赢了什麽赌局？我看你是输了以后，一致耿耿于怀。CAF都到25差几分了，现在说21.
22你还算什么，而且我也没跟你“赌”？我这一个多月从来不到你的帖子里跟你说任何
东西，前段时间你自己看着CAF涨挺烦，是不是？现在跌下来，终于扬眉吐气了？
你自己很多做法前后不一致，我不会去找茬。你也不要到处说些贬低人的，低调忍着点
，就那么难？ |
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L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 44 没看到这里有个回帖。
我的贴子说的是五月的反弹是REBOUND, not a reverse. That is the point.
meaning CAF will go down to March low before it heads back to year high. to
set it in number, i gave 25.22 and 21.22 on the day it closed at 23.22. it
didn't touch 25.22 even though it got close.
YES I DID ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT WAS A TRADE-ABLE REBOUND IN MY EARLIER POST,
MEANING YOU KNOW HOW TO EXIT. but the range will be so small - a 12% rebound
from 22 to 25, you will be exceptionally good to get 6%. Just ask able101,
who i thi... 阅读全帖 |
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i**t
发帖数: 921 | 45 你出水了， congrates. i admit my short term project for CAF is wrong. but
the mid term TA analysis for CAF on the other thread doesn't change. The
rise on
Friday is just a short covering because of technical break through on the
big market. as soon as big market cools, it sell off will resume.
Let's do a bet here, it's at 23.41 now. if it goes up $2.00 to 25.41 before
it drops $2 to $21.41, i'll lose. you set the amount for the bet. |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 46 CAF和FXI今天都到了4月中的低点（差几分不必在意）。只要后天上证稳住不崩，CAF应
当有相当大的上涨空间，比NAV也低不少。
个人看法，YMYD。 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 47 上证没挺住？
如果今天收盘CAF跌1%，每人一个；跌2%，发双黄包。当然万一涨了请给我发。
前10个回帖的CAF亏废ID有份。 |
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g**********2
发帖数: 2408 | 48 Chi
上证没挺住？如果今天收盘CAF跌1%，每人一个；跌2%，发双黄包。当然万一涨了请给
我发。前10个回帖的CAF亏废ID有份。 |
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a*****1
发帖数: 3134 | 49 我不猜底，我只知道有Discount，而且是5%，不能买。
买CAF的好处是，只要指数回来，CAF先回来。虽然要跌，但好像又没有多大的余地。大
牛你就留着吧。
我的错误在于Discount开始时没有注意，没来得及跑。算了。等Discount Shrink时再
进。
】 |
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B**********r
发帖数: 7517 | 50 从今天市场一直溢价买FXI来看，今天CAF的跌是黑庄最后的恐吓！
我的感觉：今天后面2小时CAF走强。 |
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